In the final analysis, I don't think the challenge is to realize a particular amount of profit, but rather, it's to take full advantage of whatever the market offers, whether it's 5 pips, 50 or 500. Nothing more to record here for now. The next step is to apply the results of this week's study to my live account.
TIPS AND POINTERS TO TRADING NPP: As of today, Numerical Price Prediction has, in all probability, been refined as fully as it can be. Consequently, I will begin using this Numerical Price Prediction Challenge thread to record random thoughts as they occur to me so that I will have one location where I can find all the subtleties and nuances of implementing the system...
The best time to be trading on a one-minute chart is when the slope of the 45-minute baseline registers higher than 0.009 or lower than -0.009 on the price anomaly channel in the lower panel; and/or when the slope of the 15-minute baseline registers higher than 0.0226 or lower than -0.0226.
HOW DO YOU VERIFY WHEN THE INTRADAY TREND HAS CHANGED DIRECTION? First of all, the two-minute baselines will switch from ebbing and flowing primarily on one side of the two Price Projection Sidekicks to the other. Also, candlesticks will begin painting on the opposite side of the Price Projection Indicator. Moreover, the two Price Projection Sidekicks will cross over from one side of the Price Projection Indicator to the other Additionally, the upper and lower band(s) of the dynamic six-minute price range envelope will begin curving in the other direction. And finally, the floor and ceiling of the Donchian Channel will begin to stair step AND make steady progress in the new direction.
If you are considering the possibility of entering a position because the slope of the 15-minute baseline is above 0.0226 or below -0.0226 and/or because the slope of the 45-minute baseline is above 0.009 or below -0.009, as registered on the price anomaly channel in the lower panel, make sure the reading(s) is or are not due to and Artificial Bullish or Bearish Trend Line, as described in Post #55 in the Nadex Knock-outs spread.
I have really been putting Numerical Price Prediction to the test by trying to make money with it when the market is not trending well—when it is neither liquid nor volatile. I figure if I can trade profitably during such periods, finding success when the New York session is in full swing should be a piece of cake. The final version of the Bias Overlap configuration used what I considered to be a new and improved version of the Price Projection Sidekick, but when I plotted the old and new indicators next to each other, it became clear that an even better measure would be the average of the two. I later looked for a standard substitute for their average and found that the 12-minute baseline was almost an exact match. This came into play when I wanted to find a way to judge whether it was worth entering a position (when the market was essentially dead) without referring to the lower-panel histogram representing the slope of the 45-minute baseline. It turned out that apparently, what I’d like to see is for the (purple) 12-minute baseline (i.e., the price prediction sidekick) to maintain a parallel course with the upper (blue) or lower (red) band on the dynamic six-minute price range envelope when the blue band is sloping up or the red band is slanted down (but NOT when the bands are level/horizontal, obviously) and for the candlesticks to maintain their position above or below the (green) 2-minute baselines, as appropriate... And if the candles are painting to the outside of the envelope, so much the better. In fact, if the candlesticks are not yet forming on the outside of the six-minute price range envelope, I probably shouldn't even risk the trade. (Of course, whether price action is taking place above or below the [indigo] price prediction indicator is yet anther factor to keep in mind.) Intervals where the above conditions were met in the attached image were relatively short. But, between 5 to 10 a.m. PST (my target hours for trading), such trends are sure to be supported by much greater momentum, and as a result, last far longer.
This image should have been attached to the above post to make it easy for me to locate the information should I have cause to revisit it at some point in the future (I can't believe how I never noticed that I misspelled "horizontal")... Based on the above, this (lower panel) is my version of the ADX indicator... When it is above one (1), I am looking to be in long positions. When it is below zero (0), I am looking to be in short positions.
WHAT IS THE CRUX OF FOREX INTRADAY TRADING? Based on what I am seeing unfold during the intraday trading I am doing right now, I would say that the direction in which price is actually headed "in the moment" is conveyed by its six-second activity at the fast end and its ten-second activity at the slow end; with my preferred measures/parameters being the six-second baseline, the seven-second price range envelope at 0.08% deviation, the ten-second price range envelope at 0.18% deviation and 0.32% deviation at the extreme, and the two-minute baseline for pullbacks. For the more general overall flow of price action, I'm still looking at the 45-minute price range at 0.35% through 1.00% deviation. This information is closely related to that which appears in Post #184. Again, let me just emphasize for myself... Enter positions during two-second pullbacks!
CORRECTION: TO WHAT IS THE CRUX OF FOREX INTRADAY TRADING? Based on what I am seeing unfold during the intraday trading I am doing right now, I would say that the direction in which price is actually headed "in the moment" is conveyed by its six-minute activity at the fast end and its ten-minute activity at the slow end; with my preferred measures/parameters being the six-minute baseline, the seven-minute price range envelope at 0.08% deviation, the ten-minute price range envelope at 0.18% deviation and 0.32% deviation at the extreme, and the two-minute baseline for pullbacks. For the more general overall flow of price action, I'm still looking at the 45-minute price range at 0.35% through 1.00% deviation. This information is closely related to that which appears in Post #184. Again, let me just emphasize for myself... Enter positions during two-minute pullbacks!
Thursday | May 12, 2022 | 1:10 PM PST Look for intraday reversals at the 1¾-hour temporal support/resistance levels.