Numerical Price Prediction Challenge

Discussion in 'Journals' started by expiated, Jun 9, 2018.

  1. expiated


    Probably any question I might have in regard to how I can use Numerical Price Prediction to successfully scalp the Forex market via a guerrilla style of trading has been answered, so I am now going to try upping my game to another level by setting a personal challenge in the form of a 25 pip minimum profit requirement.

    The variables are direction, size of stop loss (anything between 5 to 25 pips) and time of entry. My aim is to open up a position at least twice per week, per currency pair, and my preference would be to avoid overnight costs.

    Three factors I want pay particularly close attention to are if there is a best time of day, whether there is a best stop loss setting, and how much time typically transpires before each position closes (if indeed there is a norm).

    In short, I am looking to improve on my current performance by remaining in trades for more extended periods of time.
  2. truetype


    Is this actual trading or sim?
  3. traider


    What is the definition of Numerical Price Prediction ?
  4. expiated


    I already have a proven system, so I do all my actual trading in a separate account. When I am looking to polish, refine or enhance a strategy, as in this case, I use a demo account.
  5. expiated


    If I define it for you, every naysayer will come knocking on my door to point out how all the core suppositions on which I base my approach are in conflict with, and therefore discredited by, the findings of practically any available independent, objective, systematic, statistically significant research trial ever published on the tactics I employ.

    Consequently, I plan on opting to simply publish my forecasts and note the results—which folks will still dismiss due to the fact that I am recording them over the course of a day, or a week, or a month; as opposed to a year, or ten years, or what have you.

    Nonetheless, once I have proven the system to my satisfaction, I plan to teach it to others who really do want to learn and who have what seems to me to be the right mindset. But until then, it’s probably best that I no longer share the details, as I was doing before.
    Last edited: Jun 9, 2018
  6. expiated


    NPP Forecast for Sunday, June 10, 2018:

    As stated previously elsewhere, like numerical weather prediction, Numerical Price Prediction has an intrinsic predictability limitation in the form of error growth with time.

    Consequently, up until the end of last week, I was applying the system exclusively to an intraday frame of reference.

    However, I believe I have expanded the forecast model so that it can now be applied to more of a swing trade type of perspective as well. But in doing so, I find it necessary to separate my analysis into two distinct aspects, which I am going to label as immediate and ultimate bias, between which immediate bias (or sentiment) takes precedence.

    That said, AUDUSD has been evidencing a bullish ultimate bias ever since the start of this month, but a bearish immediate bias from beginning around June 7th. When it reached 0.7569 however, it was structurally due for at least a temporary pullback, which prompted me to scalp approximately two-and-a-half pips worth of profit from the pair at 0.7586 when I became convinced from my intraday perspective that a pullback really was in progress…

    ScreenHunter_8065 Jun. 10 08.54.jpg

    However, had I been operating from the swing trade point of view I am now including, I would have entered a long position somewhere around 0.7571, and perhaps still been in the trade at 0.7596 given the fact that at Friday’s close, the immediate bias was beginning to evidence signs of wanting to turn bullish to rejoin the ultimate bias, whose sentiment is technically still positive.

    In any event, at this point I will be watching AUDUSD for confirmation of a commitment to head north going forward, and if received, will enter a long position in pursuit of a minimum 25-pip gain, if not much more!

    Similarly, EURJPY, EURUSD, GBPJPY, GBPUSD and USDJPY are also all evidencing a bullish ultimate bias, but a bearish immediate bias that might reverse sentiment soon. However, none of them have fallen enough at this point to make them attractive structurally as such prospects, so I would either like to see their rates drop a little bit farther, or will be exercising extreme caution regarding if, when, and where to buy any of these pairs in the near future.

    In most cases their immediate bias has been bearish for at least 24 hours, so I am not looking to enter any short positions here at this point. For that, I would need to wait for their rates to continue crawling southward to such a degree that they begin to sway the ultimate bias in the same direction, at which point, I would have to start looking for opportunities to execute trades in the direction of the new bearish overall trend.

    EURGBP and USDCAD are in similar situations, but are not trending well at all in my opinion, so I am inclined to maintain a hands off attitude with respect to these two pairs at the moment.

    USDCHF is the only pair on my watch list whose ultimate bias is currently bearish. Hence, from a swing trade perspective, its climb to about 0.9887 would have been quite a sweet opportunity to enter a short position. But having not yet adopted such a viewpoint at the time, I am now forced to wait for the immediate bias to resume a bearish sentiment before entering a short position, or to wait for the “whole works” to turn north before buying.
  7. expiated


    In the process of working out the details to my new swing-trade-style approach to Numerical Price Prediction, I got myself “trapped” in an AUDUSD long position as last week came to a close, which gapped down at this week’s open.

    I therefore locked in roughly four pips worth of profit as soon as the opportunity presented itself today, and am now once again long the pair with a take-profit target of approximately 0.7654.

    ScreenHunter_8067 Jun. 10 21.17.jpg

    However, my first successful trade with respect to my NPP challenge was provided by EURJPY, which rewarded me with an approximately 28-pip gain over the course of about 2½ hours, as recorded above.
  8. expiated


    GBPJPY is the second currency pair to lend credence to my suspicion that I can expand NPP to a swing trade style of buying and selling financial assets online, providing me with an approximately 36-pip gain in a matter of about 3½ hours, which means I executed the majority of my initial trades at around 6:43 PM Sunday, June 10, 2018 here in Los Angeles.

    ScreenHunter_8068 Jun. 10 22.25.jpg
  9. traider


    How do we invest in your system?
  10. expiated


    I am not a licensed financial consultant, so as a citizen of the USA I am prohibited from giving anyone investment advice, and since I am not listed on collective2, myfxbook, forexverified, zulutrade, currensee or the like, you wouldn’t be able to invest in my system that way either.

    However, I have been writing a book which explains how the system works, but I have not yet published it in that I was waiting until all my parameters had been finalized. Given that I just expanded the system from an exclusively intraday trading strategy to include swing trading as well, a modification that appears to also be working successfully (you can just look at my charts and see that the chances the effectiveness of my system will break down over time is virtually nonexistent given that the whole thing is based strictly on mathematics—which do not change), I could now go ahead and finish the book and make it available on or sell you the e-book version directly using elitetrader’s Classified section.

    However, as I just implied, the system is extremely simple. You can just glance it and see how it works because it is based on little more than simple moving averages. So once I make it public, ANYONE could copy it, which means I’d be looking for a relatively hefty sum right up front—like at least $59.99, but probably more like $99.99, which is kind of a ridiculous price to pay for anything other than a textbook.

    Another option is for me to activate a training course at, but their system seems to no longer accept cut-and-paste, which now means I would have to rewrite the book’s entire text, which would entail a significant amount of work.

    I probably shouldn’t sell it anyway unless you were willing to sign a nondisclosure agreement, and in the interest of full disclosure, I should probably inform you that everyone tells me it is impossible to use moving averages in the way that I do. But then, everyone told Aristarchus of Samos and Nicolaus Copernicus that it was impossible for the sun to be the center of our galaxy (sort of) and just look at how wrong everyone was. (Like I said, you can just glance at my charts and see the logic behind my approach.)

    If you are really serious (most people aren’t) let me know and I will look into the possibility of creating and selling a Numerical Price Prediction training program via elitetrader’s classifieds in exchange for your signing a nondisclosure agreement.
    #10     Jun 11, 2018