Oh please, spare us the National Enquirer headlines The Dow Jones alone has more than doubled in price during the last 5 years. Follow the trend and make money, where is the problem?
You are lecturing me about stock markets, and you apparently struggle to post profitable results in your spot FX journal? Now the rest of us are talking about intraday trading stocks listed on various exchanges, along with futures markets. Stuff you don't trade or even know very much about the history of in reality. I respectfully suggest you run along and figure out the spot FX game first as a much better use of your spare time than chiming in here. My comments were directed towards men who are experienced stock market and/or futures markets traders.
I started trading stocks and equity indices back in the 70's, so I know a couple of things about the stock market, thank you very much. I understand perfectly what you are saying, but like I said numerous times, if something does not work anymore then trade something else or use a different strategy or time frame, simple as that. Evolve or perish, that's the reality of trading. Some traders will understand that and move on, others will just sit there and think about the "good old time", when you could get this fill or that fill "easily".
That's all true... and exactly where did all of this peak "efficiency" come from? Technology HFTs and the free reign to front-run orders, manipulate price moves (endless flash-crash events happening all the time) and drain true liquidity from thinner markets (no fills unless you chase price) created this so-called "efficiency" I think you might be a little bit paranoid. I've been involved in the markets for 18 years now and I'm just not seeing that. Yes, the markets have certainly changed but you are acting as if all these players in the market are conspiring against you. Have you thought for a second that these so called forces are actually against each other? Or are you implying they are all working together all moving the market in the same direction and all patting each other on the back at the end of the day? Now your second part of the statement there is equally true, to an extent. WalMart will not reign retail space forever and quite frankly perhaps not to the end of this decade. Nor will the HFT firms rule markets forever. The end result of their ultra-efficiency is an accelerating implosion of the markets. I don't even understand how you arrive at this conclusion. Markets crash when value is dislocated from price at extremes. Ironically, it's the "price chasing speculators" that usually push price to those extremes causing the crash, not the mean reverting algo that is keeping price constant. I'm more then happy to have you walk me through this though. Crude oil futures posted a 60-cent total range in the pit session yesterday, and 75-cent total range today. Both sideways chopped. CL traders used to step away from the desk to piss and refill their coffee cup, return to their seat and the market was 100 cents past where they left a few minutes before. Are you aware that some of the greatest oil traders in the country, Mark Fisher to name one, made their fortunes in oil when it was trading at $10 with 20 cent ranges. True volume across ALL markets is way down. Individual trader participation is at decade lows and worsening daily. Brokers are dwindling clients. New recruits to the trading industry are nil. Do you know what that spells? Peak efficiency... where eventually there is nothing left but mutual funds, hedge funds and HFT funds. Again, where are you getting this data? Retail option participation is at all time highs right now. Volume looks down because we have more products available to trade so it gets spread around more. Think of the 1980's when we had 4 main TV channels to watch and today we have 600. So sure, we don't have a TV show like Friends or ER that draws in 20 million viewers because people have so many choices now to choose from. When the next true bear market occurs, what do you predict will happen to financial markets then? It'll look like the vacuum tube formerly known as Russell 2000 futures are in the present. I think the next bear market will look just like the last 30 bear markets. I don't see why it would be much different. Markets are not the same, they are nowhere even close to unchanged. Markets have changed dramatically if not drastically. And not everyone is capable of adaptation before ruin. Markets are the same. What has changed is the execution and the efficiency. Markets are all about a search for value. Prices over shoot in both directions but at the end of the day, it's a search for return. Assets are valued by their opportunity cost and risk. I'll say this again, look for the inefficiencies. Educate yourself. Read. Try the road less traveled. It might just make all the difference.
mav, I'm talking about intraday trading and intraday price action specifically. You're a highly intelligent man, and experienced veteran in this industry. You know damn well the price action internals are nowhere near what they used to be. Nobody made any fortunes day-trading crude in 10-cent ranges. Lescor, EricP, Dustin, ReardonMetal aren't posting five and six figures profit months (or single sessions) in a long time. Now you hear from guys who cannot fill trades at all in the same manner they did for many years. Etc. Who is to say the next banking crisis ala 2008 won't be several times worse? When the next -800 points Dow session hits, who will be taking the long side of those lows? Not the human traders, they gone. Not the algos, they get switched off. ** Many of us have adapted. I personally nixed CL trading completely and replaced it with ES. I'm trading several major pairs of spot FX with some positions held two - three days. I'm willing to hold ES positions overnight, or from Monday thru Friday if a trend runs away in favor. So you needn't worry about me adapting thru the changes, but thank you for the concern. I do feel genuinely bad for the guys who worked long & hard to get where they were as stock traders, only to have HFTs blow it all away. Compassion for your fellow men here is not a sign of weakness, boys. You don't have to be snide when someone in here posts they are struggling or worse. In the not too distant future, it could be your turn.
i'm full of compassion for anyone who wants it. i just can't stand the overwhelming sentiment of some who seem to feel the market as a whole owes them anything or is robbing them somehow, simply because it once provided them with profits and now it doesn't. the fact the market dynamics have changed: you don't need to convince me that this has happened.. of course it has, things change, the old die, the new are born.
For some odd reason, there are people who cling to the stance that all markets are status quo, nothing has changed, everything is groovy as it was since 1999. How hard is it to be honest and say, "yes the markets have changed and yes they are dominated by legal front-running and yes it is different for day traders" As for the HFT pundits who cling to the stance that such programs aren't parasitic, they somehow add value to the accumulation - distribution process? No different than a worker drawing paychecks from Phillip Morris saying tobacco has never been proven to cause cancer, but it will rid you of worms if you swallow some chew. It's sad that opportunities for individual traders are shrinking instead of growing. There are not more new choices for traders to evolve towards. You can either lengthen the hold time of trades, turn smaller positions, live with more slippage (profits for the parasitic HFTs) or quit and walk away. Unfortunately, many former traders have walked away. They are not being replaced by new arrivals. This human trader drain most certainly does change the landscape of our profession, and not for the better.
to compare tobacco to HFT is ridiculous imo. several have emphasized the positive things HFT has done for financial markets. They're so obvious, you can't ignore them. I'm not going to repeat them as I and others already have mentioned them, and this topic has the danger of going full circle over and over again even without me repeating myself. why is it such an enormous disaster that traders are walking away, other than on a personal level?
#1: the only benefit HFTs serve the general market is their own parasitic self-serving. They create no open interest, they take no positions intended to add liquidity. All they do is insert themselves between actual buyers and sellers as a needless layer of siphoning. HFTs create no liquidity, no open interest and no buyers of last resort in selloffs. They are merely mechanical versions of mafia skimming from legit small business operations under the guise of adding value thru "protection" #2: it is sad when individuals lose their ability to earn for many economic reasons, but for the markets specifically? Human traders do actually add true liquidity thru open interest. They truly serve to thicken a market with real liquidity as real market orders and positions. With each person lost, there goes another little bit of actual, honest liquidity in that market.