This is a really bad idea. You say you were successful with your system for some period of time. Therefore, you departed from it either because it began to provide you with losing trades or because you became overconfident and decided that you could do better. If the former, perhaps the strategy simply expired and you need to modify it to suit current market reality, or you need to start over and come up with a new strategy. That means the usual backtesting, paper-trading, etc. If the latter, your self-control may be slipping. If so, you are much more likely to make boredom trades, revenge trades, panic trades. If this is the case, and there's nothing demonstrably wrong with your strategy, pull out until you've regained control. If you don't know how to regain control, then you've got even more work ahead of you.
Small suggestion www.innerworth.com The biggest obstacle to success is yourself. I get a lot out of their daily newsletter.
Today was pretty good. Trade 1 (BOT 1254 SLD 1261.5) I started trading earlier than usual today because I was feeling pretty good and also because I thought the afternoon would either be listless or volatile. The market was moving extremely slow today, and usually the only thing that works for me on days like this is pure tape reading. The tape was telling me that the NDX was headed above 1260, so I just took the best entry I could find and held on. It headed up to about 1258.5 NDX at which point I thought about just getting out, but I wasn't getting an exit signal. I was even anticipating a new high for the day at that point. However, from there it retraced all the way down to 54.5X55 but I really felt that the tape was still pointing upwards, so I just watched and waited. I was prepared to exit at 1253, but thankfully it didn't get that far. Then it spent nearly an hour between 56X56.5 and 56.5X57, but the tape was still pointing upwards. At this point I was prepared to exit at 1255. Finally, it resumed its upward climb and after twice failing to penetrate 1263, I took a profit at 1261.5. I was still anticipating a new high, but at this point the risk was too high to justify holding any longer. I didn't feel comfortable holding a trade like that after 2:30 EST on an option expiration Friday anyway.
AFterburner, Very nice trade and not because you were profitable on a 8 contract position... but a nice trade because you stuck to a plan... a plan to help deal with your FEAR and/or CONFIDENCE issues. Something else...you mention something...pure tape reading... well...those guys usually understand the psychological of sellers and buyers as they interpret tape reading... although I'm not sure if your tape reading is Bid/Ask info or just T&S or both. I just thought that was odd with your current situation (fear and confidence) you'll mention those words eventhough it wasn't your only reason for the trade. Anyways...here are my questions... are your exits based on profit-targets or based exit signals? Also...why didn't you exit some contracts to lock in profits when the NDX reached 1258.5...prior to that pullback that got you worried a little? I wasn't sure if your methodology requires you to go in with full burners on and exit with full burners on. My last question...what's your plan to ensure your continuing regaining your psychological strength if your in a similar trade like this in the future... because maybe next time the pullback will be a little deeper and your forced to exit the trade at breakeven after being at a nice profit? Once again...very nice trade and keep posting info about your feelings and thoughts to help you reach your goal of holding yourself accountable. That's a big hint for traders that post accountablility journals and don't discuss their feelings, thoughts nor get into the psychological aspects of their trades. Simply...to hold yourself accountable...a trader needs to know themself. P.S. Remember...two steps forward and 1 step backwards is still progress and profitable. NihabaAshi
Grab a profit on the first half, stops to b/e on the second, take a nap. I know it's not a particularly smart thing to do. But it helps me with my "exit too early" problem and relieves stress.
I was too confused to trade today. At approximately 2:00 EST I received a buy signal at 1237. However, I was feeling that the market was going to go lower than that, so I waited. At approximately 2:20 EST I received a sell signal at 1242. However, I was feeling that the market was going to go higher than that, so I waited. At this point, I was thoroughly confused and decided to quit for the day. The reason that I was so confused is that I believed both long term signals were correct, but wasn't sure how to interpret them in conjunction with each other. I guess that one strategy may have been to wait for one of the long term signals to happen, and then trade off of the second signal. However, I'm not convinced that this is a viable strategy. It would have worked today, and also on July 15/16 but it just doesn't seem too logical. Not that that means it won't work on a consistent basis though.
Very true, I'm glad someone picked up on this. I was feeling the same way, but I didn't want to dwell on the negative on a day where I did more things right than wrong. When it reached 1261, I was feeling like it was headed for a pullback to 1258. However, since I was anticipating that the NDX would go above 1260, I didn't want to exit a trade that I still felt confident about. When it pulled back to 1258, I felt like I had severely mismanaged the trade, but that it was still a good trade so I had better just stick it out with a stop to protect me from losses. What I have been struggling the most with lately has been the relationship between my short and long term signals. When I say this it means that a lot of times, I will receive a short term signal that contradicts my long term signal. This happend twice today (July 21). Since I usually have much more faith in the long term signal, I wind up ignoring most contrary short term signals. I need to get in the habit of obeying both long and short term signals while making sure that I never allow a short term signal to take psychological control over the situation. That has happened in the past when I give the short term signal too much leeway and it turned against me ruining my long term trade. I think that the best possible solution to this problem is to take the short term signal, but instead of reversing just go flat and then wait for a good re-entry point. I think that this strategy is a lot less psychologically stressful than trying to do two successful reversals. The other strategy that might work is to reverse on the short term signal while using a profit/stop target of 2 points. Then go flat and wait for the re-entry point. The default profit/stop target would prevent me from becoming overly attached to the short term signal while providing me with a profit cushion for re-entry. I'm definitely leaning towards this second scenario.