Have you considered taking a break from trading (Stop trading or even watching the markets) for a couple of weeks; until you can get your "trading technique" back.
Today was better. I ignored several signals at the beginning of the afternoon, but was finally able to start taking them around 2:30 EST. The only problem was that after taking them I was too scared to hold on. Trade 1 (BOT 1287.5 SLD 1288) I was looking for 1292 and wanted to see how it would trade around this level as to whether there was a good possibility it would trade up to 1300. It made it to 1289.5 ASK but when it came back down to 88X88.5 I got scared and decided to get out. Trade 2 (SLD 1292 BOT 1291.5) After seeing how the tape was reacting around 1292, I was looking for a pullback to 1288. It made it to 1290.5 BID but when it came back up to 91X91.5 I got scared again and decided to get out. I almost got back in at 1292 but couldn't the trigger. Trade 3 (SLD 1287 BOT 1286.5) There was no signal for this trade, I just wanted to see if I could hold onto a trade for 15 minutes without jumping out. I would have made it except that I realized being short was a bad idea and I had better get out while I still could make a profit. I probably would have reversed at 1287 looking for 1289 except I didn't feel comfortable initiating a new trade at 3:30 EST given my current state of mind. Believe it or not, this last trade, while not based on my system, helped me to relax a little bit and gain some confidence. I had a stop at 1289 to protect myself, and I just forced myself to watch the market. It took away some of the fear. Hopefully I will feel some confidence tomorrow. If I can execute one trade successfully, I think that will be all I need to get started.
I took four days off. At that point I cut my size in half and figured I should try to trade my way out of the slump. If I continue to struggle after the end of this week, next week I will reduce my profit target to a default 2 points until I can build some confidence.
It looks like the rest of the market was feeling the same way based on this morning's gap up and quick reversal into negative territory.
Afterburner, I would feel very nervous trading that time of day too. You are trading the "dead zone". It is not an easy time of day to work with. Too slow a pace from low volume mostly. Are you working and this is your lunch hour, so it is the only time you can trade? Or are you in another time zone? My favorite time is 10-11:30 and 3:30-4:10. There is often a lot of volume at those times and strong trends.
AFterburner, Thanks for the clarification. I too...whenever I hit a rut for whatever reason...will reduce my size (position size management) to either readjust or whatever. If the problems persist a few more trading days...I'll stop trading...watch the markets and price only with nothing else on the charts (no indicators) and paper trade via a realtime simulator if needed... If it still persists...I'll get away from the markets completely and concentrate on a vacation like away from the markets to re-energize and to regain my perspective. Yet...when I see a trader use the word FEAR...that's a big word and requires special attention. For me...when I get into that type of situation (happens 2 or 3 times a year for me)... I take some time off from the markets and concentrate on my hobbies or family (darkroom photography and scenic walks)...minimum of 1 week. Then when I return...I immediately go into paper trading via a realtime simulator (price action only...no indicators) with a few contracts for a few days...taking lots of notes...making and printing annotated charts to show the good trades and bad trades... It's at this time I'm ready to look deep inside to find that reason for the fear...usually its an outside factor for me...then I do what it takes to resolve it. Then I return to real trading with the same few contracts only tactic (some trades via my price action only methods and others via my indicators)...usually my fear is gone now... Then after a few days of that...I start increasing my contract size back to my normal size. Each trader have their own method of pushing FEAR aside...regaining confidence...no right or wrong way... (the above is just my own way) just make a plan to deal with it... like sitting down and scheduling an appointment with yourself for some deep discussions and resolutions... Next...execute that plan for dealing with such a tough psychological task. P.S. When you took those 4 days off...what exactly did you do? Did you feel like you were re-energized when you returned to trading? NihabaAshi
I can honestly say that as of now I am embarassed to post my results to a public forum. This is absolutely pathetic. As of today, my fear has been replaced by embarrassment. I realized two things today. The first was that I am trying to optimize too much. When I am trading well, I can usually pinpoint my entries and exits. I'll have an exit target, but I let the market tell me when to get out. I realized that right now I'm not even trying to manage my exits; subconsciously I am waiting for the profitable trade to come all the way back to my entry and then I get out with a half pointer. This ties into the second thing that I realized; I am trying to sell the exact high of the afternoon, and buy the exact low; i.e. wait for the perfect entry. So basically, the only way I would currently have a profitable trade is if the market never came back to my entry. I also figured out the source of my fear. I am afraid of a single losing trade. I can't believe how ridiculous this is, but I think that I am so afraid of continuing the drawdown that subconsciously I am trying to prevent any possible losses. This also explains the reason I am ignoring signals; I am trying to wait for the perfect signal. It's like I'm trying to get one awesome trade to provide a cushion from the drawdown low. I can't believe how counterproductive this has been. It would be nearly impossible to succeed with this mindset. Right now I am feeling extremely grateful for my fear and uncertainty because they have protected me from myself by getting me out of everything early, because a major loss could have resulted from this mentality. Right now I need to try to mechanize the system as much as possible until I can get my rhythm back. I need to try to take every signal while using a hard stop and price target. Trade 1 (SLD 1257.5 BOT 1257) I was looking for a retracement to 1260 NDX, and when it looked like it wasn't going to make it I decided to go short. My entry was early because I was feeling some time pressure since it was 3:30 EST. Nevertheless I had a stop at 1259.5 and it only made it to 1259 ASK. I thought there was enough negative momentum to make it back to 1250 NDX, so I was looking for 1252.5 which I sent because time was running out and I didn't want to take the chance it would go lower than that. When it was at 54X54.5 I realized that the downward momentum had dried up, but I still didn't get out when it went to 53.5X54 due to my subconscious handicap mentioned previously. The whole way up from 1254 to 1256.5 I knew I should just take what I could get, but obviously I didn't. The goal for tomorrow is to take every signal. I already know I won't do this because I am naturally more selective on Fridays, not to mention option expiration days. But hopefully I'll at least take the signals I normally would take.
As I mentioned previously, I am starting to feel embarrassed by the results I have posted. In an effort to prove myself, I have a attached a portion of my June 2003 statement. This is a lot more personal information than I wanted to disclose, but as long as this is anonymous I guess that it will be OK. Please don't ask any personal questions, because I won't answer them.