I don't know why, but I'm getting upset at myself for getting out of Trade 1. I keep trying to tell myself that the only reason that I'm upset is because the trade worked, and that I wouldn't be upset if the trade had failed. However, this does nothing to console me because I knew it was a good trade, otherwise I wouldn't have initiated it. I guess the lesson to be learned here is that if you're going to trade then you had better be prepared to trade.
I was unable to trade until after 3:00 EST which was disappointing because I was really looking forward to trading today. Anyway, at first I thought the tape was pointing down, but I couldn't get the confirmation that I needed. Then around 3:20 EST the tape seemed to change direction. I wanted to be absolutely sure before I did anything though. Finally I could see that it was safe to go long so I entered. Trade 1 (BOT 1302 SLD 1306) [14:39:50 - 14:50:00] This was a good trade that went smoothly (I think that had a lot to do with the fact that I waited until practically the last possible moment to enter). Anyway, I was planning on holding until the close, but when it hit 1306 there was some resistance and since it was already 3:50 EST I decided to get out.
It's hard to describe what what happened today. All I can say is that I just had a feeling. Obviously I normally don't take position trades, but I just felt that it was the right thing to do. Trade 1 (BOT 1285) My entry on this trade was absolutely amazing. Everything seems to be working great. The only negative is that the tape isn't as strong as it should be, and that worries me very much. The only thing that I can say in my defense is that 1305 seems to be an inflection point, in which case that would explain things. Right now I need to take a break and then come back with a fresh perspective to analyze this trade. I need to figure out a plan of action including several different contingencies. I'm not as confident as I should be with this trade (because of the tape), and that may be the deciding factor. Hopefully everything works out tomorrow. Also, please don't congratulate me on this trade. It's not over yet, and I certainly don't need a false sense of security or overconfidence right now. Thank you for your understanding.
I decided to exit yesterday's trade in the after hours session at 1308.5. The main reason that I decided to get out was that the momemtum didn't seem to be very strong. Also, I was almost certain that the market would trade below 1308.5 regardless and I was afraid that if the market action deteriorated I wouldn't be able to take a loss. I didn't think that the risks were in my favor even though I still thought the trade had potential. Anyway, holding that position trade really messed up my tape reading skills because I had become overly attached to that trade. Around 10:15 EST I saw a long entry at 1304, but I couldn't tell if that was the tape or my own bias. I wanted yesterday's trade to work so badly that I let it affect my objectivity. I decided to do nothing with this entry and resume trading at my normal time. When I resumed trading, I was second guessing everything. I passed on several good setups. Finally, with little time remaining, I forced myself to enter. To be honest, the only reason that I even entered this trade was so that I would be net positive for the day (because of the commissions incurred by closing yesterday's trade). Even though my reasoning behind taking the trade wasn't the greatest, it was a good entry and at no time did I risk a loss. Trade 1 (BOT 1317.5 SLD 1318) Within approximately a minute, it went to 18X18.5 and this was the lowest it went until after my exit. I was hoping for the NDX to close above 1320, but it couldn't quite make it. While today wasn't very good, I at least learned something; Overnight position trades don't work well with my current style of trading. In the future, I will be best off to exit at the close and then look to enter near the open if the tape and market action confirm my original position (which I'm pretty sure they did today although my judgement was too clouded to be certain). Conceivably, the tape could change overnight and then I would be in a mess. Also, even if the tape was still favorable it would be nice to have a new entry point for trade management reasons. The major problem that I have with holding overnight, is that I lose some control and consequently have to expose myself to larger potential losses. I thought that it would be OK since I was already up 23.5 points, but I couldn't get myself to think that way. My perspective is that I already owned those points, and I was starting over at zero today. The apparent lack of momentum just made matters worse. Yesterday night I realized that this is the last week of August and so far I haven't had a single losing day this month. I think that subconsciously I am trying to keep the streak alive and it has become extremely counterproductive. I sincerely hope that I will be able to trade with a fresh perspective tomorrow, and that I won't be weighed down with these ridiculous issues. I think today was a classic (and somewhat extreme) example of me putting my own needs above those of the market. I don't think I even considered what the market needed at all today, I was too consumed/obsessed with my own selfish desires.
I started out poorly because I was still trying to second guess the tape. I caught myself doing this and was able to get my act together. Trade 1 (BOT 1321 SLD 1331) I could see that the tape was pointing up. I figured that there might be enough volatility due to the lower volume to make it really take off, so I bought 20 contracts. This bigger position size helped me to concentrate better, which I needed because I've had trouble focusing on the tape. It was just what I needed. Anyway, my entry was a little early because I was too exicited. Nevertheless, the lowest it went after entry was 19.5X20, the tape was pointing up, and the market action was firm. Like I mentioned previously, I was just planning on holding until the close. I kept moving my stop point up at the appropriate times to 1222, 1224, 1226 at which point I decided to just hold steady. Around 3:45 EST, I decided to sell 5 contracts at 1331 because it wasn't moving up as well as I thought it would/should. Finally I decided to exit the remaining 15 contracts at 1331 near the close. Today worked out pretty well. All things considered, this has been a really good week. I was planning on taking tomorrow off, but I may check in at the open because I feel there is the possibility of a strong upward move.
My plans for the afternoon fell through, so I decided to see what the market was doing. I really wish that I hadn't. Not only did I have insufficient mental preparation, but I told myself that I would be able to make a few "easy" points and then quit. Trade 1 (SLD 1336 BOT 1340.5) Shortly after I entered this trade I could tell that it wasn't going to work and also that I shouldn't have traded at all today; especially not with 20 contracts. However, I was trying to keep my winning streak alive so instead of just getting out I put in a buy order for 1335.5. Obviously it didn't work. The whole time I was in this trade, I could see that the tape was pointing up, but I had adopted a gambler's attitude. Finally I couldn't take it anymore so I just pulled the plug. I thought about not even posting this trade, but that would defeat the purpose of the journal. I was so worried about having a single losing day that I put everything in jeopardy. As bad as I feel right now, I think that this was the humbling experience that I needed. I'm actually glad that it happened today (even though it puts a damper on the holiday weekend) because on any other day that loss could have been much larger. I think that somewhere along the line I had developed a feeling of invincibility, and this trade was a wake up call. The worst part is that I wasn't even reading the tape when I entered, I just wanted to make a few "easy" points so I could have some extra spending cash for the weekend. Obviously this was nothing more than gambling. I'm actually glad that I lost money on this gamble, because otherwise I might have thought that it was acceptable behavior. Hopefully I will be able to get myself back on track for next week.
Believe it or not, I had originally thought that today was going to be a strong up day. However, when it still hadn't done anything by 1:30 EST, I decided to go short. Trade 1 (SLD 1344 BOT 1360) I honestly thought that the tape was pointing down. The tape didn't start pointing up until after 3:00 EST at around 1358. At that point, I decided to do an OCA combination for 1350/1360 and 1360 got hit which didn't surprise me. It seemed that this afternoon's rally occurred because of an absence of sellers instead of strong buying activity. Not that it really makes any difference. Regardless, the path of least resistance was obviously up. I've been doing so good lately, that I think that somewhere along the line I abandoned my loss protection measures. I thought I learned my lesson on Friday, but obviously I didn't. I've become extremely complacent in my trading, the fear that helps protect me has been absent lately. Also, I wasn't ready for another increase in size, so I will be returning to 15 contracts. The only reason I increased from 15 in the first place is because I was feeling complacent. I'm feeling hardly any pain regarding this loss, which is a definite tip off that something else is going on. I think that subconsciously I was trying to punish myself with this trade. I was disappointed by some of my actions over the weekend, and am feeling guilty about it. Also, as great as August 27's windfall was, I didn't really feel like I deserved it because it didn't involve that much trading/work. This is really the only explanation that makes sense, since I don't even care about the loss. Right now, I'm feeling like I don't even care about trading anymore. I really don't. I don't seem to have any motivation whatsoever. I think that I've met a lot of my goals, and right now I can't seem to come up with any new goals except making money. But when making money is my only goal, I just seem to go through the motions. This complacency is killing me. I need to find a challenge that I actually care about. Looking back, I think that this has been a recurring problem. When I am trading extremely well, I lose focus. As a result, losses are incurred to the point that they cause me to get back on track. I think that I need to take some time off until I can figure out what I'm trying to accomplish with my trading. I need a goal that I care about.
I know I said that I needed some time off. However, I hate losing; it really aggravates me. Anyway, I made the goal of getting back what I lost while using hard stops. Trade 1 (SLD 1370 BOT 1355) The tape was pointing down. However, what really caused me to enter this trade was that I could see that there was finally some selling pressure. That had been lacking the previous two (losing) days. It was really cool to watch the market action after I entered this trade. It felt like I could actually see what the various market participants were thinking and doing. Shortly after entry, I decided to sell another 5 contracts. I only got a partial fill and then I realized that this was an unwise decision, so I canceled the remaining 3 contracts. I decided to keep the 2 extra contracts because I couldn't really see the harm in it since it was a good trade. If I hadn't felt as confident about this trade, I would have exited the 2 contracts. Nonetheless, I had a stop at 1372 because I was worried that I might not have the strength to take another loss. Anyway, I had to wait a long time for the move to get started because people were still trying to buy and also the sellers were hesitant. I gave this trade a little more time than usual because it was initiated countertrend. The trade finally started to work out after 3:00 EST. However, I could sense a pullback around 1355, so I got out because I felt that the risks were no longer in my favor. I still haven't come up with a definite plan for a stop loss system. The problem is that my old stop loss system doesn't work well with my new method of tape reading. I need some extra flexibility with tape reading. Usually it all works out, but yesterday scared me because it was an example of market action acting contrary to what I believed that I saw in the tape for an extended period of time. I didn't even realize the extent of my loss until after I exited the trade. A 16 point loss is huge, but while I was in the trade it felt more like a 4 point loss. I let myself get extremely deceived on that one, and I don't want to let it happen again. I'm thinking that one possible solution would be to place a hard stop 5 points above my entry which would only get hit on the rare occassions that I completely mess up. The only problem is that I don't trust myself to let that stop get hit in those situations. I know that some brokers will enforce a max loss for you. Would it be possible to have IB automatically stop out all of my trades after 7 points? I would appreciate feedback on this. Thank you.
Nice comeback after 2 difficult days. Speaking of which, why were the regular screenshots conspicuous by their absence?