I always have an overall view of where I am in the market. I usually try to align my trades so that they are intune with this view. That way, even if my timing is off or I get hurt short term, time will heal the wound. I have sort of an internal trendline that guides me. If the tape is pointing down and the price is above the trendline and encountering upward resistance, that is an ideal short entry. The major problem with Trade 5 was that I entered at the trendline instead of above it. Nevertheless, assume I was completely wrong. If something was able to get away from me with that kind of momentum, I would be able to reverse and make back a good portion of the loss. In this particular case, while the magnitude was there, the momentum clearly was not. It was moving in spotty gaps up with little support behind it. Also, it was pushing towards zero for the day. If it had already been up 20 points it would have been a completely different story. Looking forward, the market has positioned itself for a down day that stays down. Today was the setup day. Tomorrow morning I would like to see a gap up and maybe a quick run up (a penetration on 1560 (a little unlikely) would be terrific). I think that would be a classic trap and an ideal short entry. The market has laid the foundation for a straight shot to 1510 when the time comes (the next time 1520 is penetrated, 1510 should be an easy 10 points). That's my opinion. While I normally am hesitant to indulge in top picking, I'll swing if the pitch is right. The short squeeze ran out of gas late last week. If the market can no longer stand up under it's own power, then the time has come. I'll be watching for it around 9:20 or so. More than likely nothing will come of it, but it would be really fun if the opportunity presents itself. I would love to see a 50 point range again. Please note that I'm not trying to incite the typical riot that ensues after any prediction; I hope the zealots will show mercy. I'm more or less just reminiscing about the way things used to work.
BOT 1542.5 CLOSE 09:58:00 I was getting extremely impatient. I think that scalping will be the best course of action for me today. Right now I'm going to take a break for awhile.
SLD 1540 OPEN 10:12:11 BOT 1539.5 CLOSE I came back to watch, and took this trade. I realized it probably wasn't the best idea so I immediately got out.
BOT 1536.5 OPEN 10:29:55 I just wanted to get a taste of what kind of power there was behind the move.
SLD 1537.5 CLOSE 10:36:03 It seems like the real deal to me. I will continue to short with extreme prejudice.
Now at 1550. I'm getting so sick of this. Buy the dip, buy the dip, buy the dip. Pretty soon we're going to have a 1987 style crash - in the up direction!
SLD 1540 OPEN 12:35:49 I'm falling apart at the seams. I'm furious about Trade 4. I don't think this trade will work and I don't care. I have a buy order in for 1537.