Daily: We are about to reach the top of the TR at 50, there was a failed attempt on friday to take it out, even after the strong REV at the MP at 100. LOLR: UP but possible REV at the top of the TR. Hourly: Buyers stalled Friday afternoon and are trying to reach 150, but looks like their strength is falling. LOLR: Horizontal congestion. 5 min We are in a TR between 41 and 46. At the moment of this post we are at the MP of this TR at 43. LOLR: Horizontal congestion.
Today I started pointing out where I think were the entry opps. Gotta run, so no lengthy explanations
Daily We have broke the TR and making new highs, no way for me to tell where R might be until we see it forming in real time. 60 min The trend is still up, we are at the steepest DL, in what looks like a RET so the bias is still bullish. LOLR = UP 5 min, After what looked like an attempt to break below the DL, buyers started to push for higher prices, this can turn into chop before the open or if the LSH holds can also turn into an opportunity to look for short. Lets see. LOLR: Down with risk of chop.
Too much of a choppy morning for my taste. Now, if one focuses on the extremes, most of the chop damage can be avoided. Lets say one only trades REVs at the extremes and avoids the RETs within the TR. Then one would have only take 2 longs around 79 and one short at 87, it would have been 4,5 points minus commissions and slippage, but at least one wouldn´t have been in the red a the end of the day. Now, I am not ready to trade this kind of market yet, I guess I would have taken a couple of bad trades in the morning and stopped trading due to choppy conditions.
Daily Looks like yesterday´s chop was the fact that buyers stalled at 3190, after a strong rally it was fair i guess. Now it all depends on how anxious are late buyers to enter, if they wait I expect prices to test 150 as S, which would mean we have about 20 points to go in the short side at least. (LOLR: UP) Hourly We have broken 2 DLs and now the trend is down, S was found at 67, after the break of PDMP. (LOLR: Down) 5 min After finding S at 67, buyers pushed hard breaking the SL and finally managed to hold a HL around 69, all bullish. The fact that prices are still below the 50 RET level of the last downswing is not encouraging as this could easily turn into a hinge and a continuation of the downtrend, so gotta be alert.
I started taking positions in the market based in my interpretation of PA, trying to get a little further of HLs and LHs, I am also considering DTs DBs and failures as part of the trading landscape. This is very raw work, and still have trouble acting on some information. Here is the story. 1. I have a bias against trading out of RTH, but then again Db said something some days ago regarding the fact that the opportunities are showing up more often than not before NY open, so I decided to take a trade today around 9:13. The logic there was that we had found R at 71 and a hinge formed around that level, I was not available at the time of the hinge BO, but as soon as I spotted a RET i decided to take the short. There was some stress at the beginning because of the strong push to the upside just a minute after, but then again I decided to keep the trade open until sellers were able to take the LSH or break decisively the SL, none of this happened. 2. Before the open prices stopped their descent at 63, I did not realize this was the MP of the upswing from sep 9th until it was too late, so I let the short open until the SL was taken, perhaps this SL was not thight enough, things to consider... 3. Buyers pushed hard at the open but stalled at the MP from premarket, but then again sellers were unable to break below the MP of the upswing so i thought this confirmed the REV of the downtrend I took the long. 4. After prices broke above R at 71 buyers just were not there anymore they gave up and price stalled, as the DL was gone I closed the long. This is where the first confusion of the day came to my mind, I could be either facing a REV or a REV, as LSL was far away I decided to take my chances with a RET, the thing is I expected that buyers were there above LSH so I placed my entry above it, it did not happen and then I was trapped far away from the danger point, I know this is because I entered in the worst possible level, something to avoid in the future. As buyers failed to break above the LSH i thought the place to be was with the bears so i took the short at S. 5. The thing here is that the same thing that happened at 71 happened again at 63, but this time was the sellers the ones that failed to keep the trend going, as I saw the bar at 10:01 forming I was thinking about SAR, but then I thought I would need more information to trust this long, this proved not to be the case, but then again I have not traded failures, so I was not sure. Something to keep in mind. 6. Prices then bounced at R but there was no retest so there was no entry. Then came a HL and a LH, ergo hinge. I took the short at the intrabar RET after the break of the SL of the hinge, after prices broke S at 63 i decided to give it some wiggle room and not to close the trade at the break of the SL, but to keep it open as the LSH was not taken. 7. As sellers failed during 3 consecutive minutes to break below 60, I decided to give more attention to the recently formed SL and I exited the trade at the break. 8. Once again doubt came into the equation, we had broken SL, but this could still be a RET, as LSH was taken out, I started thinking more on a REV, so I took the long, but it was rapidly stopped out. Then I gave the short side a try but it was also a fail, so i decided i was under the influence of the chop, just below R at 63. 9. My Bias was bearish, and I wrongly ignored the fact that I was inside a hinge, that prompted me to take a couple of bad trades, I know that i must wait for things to clear out before committing any money on this hinges, so that is a mistake to avoid in the future. 10. As buyers broke out of the hinge and R at 63-64 i took the first RET, I exited this trade as soon as the DL was broken. 11. But then again, although DL was gone, LSL held, so as soon as I saw sellers giving up i decided to reenter the trend, As it was already after 11 i decided to close at R at 70.
Good stuff. Regarding point # 9, the Volume at Price level at 62/60 had been relatively high from the congestion on the 9th. In addition to the hinge pointed out by you, awareness of the presence of all those past trades right below at 62/60 may discourage the trader from aggressive trend continuation shorts into retested Support.