You've gone from not seeing failures anywhere to seeing them everywhere A retracement is not a failure. A retracement is slowing things down to give other traders a chance to jump in (note the rallies after each of your "failures"). If they don't want to, or can't, the retracement becomes a reversal. But until proven otherwise, give it a chance. "Failures" have to do with, for example, an inability to make a new high/low, or an inability to hold price within a trading range. Ordinary undulations are not failures. To define "ordinary undulation", you have to go back to support and resistance. If you're not facing either, give price, again, a chance.
Hehe, yep. I am now seeing failures everywhere, and I know I might be overreacting to this new knowledge. By failure i meant the fact that price did not do what I was expecting it to do at that time. For example the one at 9:39 was a failed RET that turned into a REV. The second one at 10 was a poke below LSL that failed to follow through. The third one at 10:23 was a LH that failed to reach the LSL The fourth one at 10:37 was a break below LSL that found D and did not follow through. The fifth and sixth were failed attempts to break out of the TR to the upside and to the downside. I just noted them in RT as those were things that I did not pay attention to before. Thanks for pointing out my new tendency to see more failures than necessary.
Being a bit rigid here. It's not a reversal unless and until it breaks the last swing low. You may not want to wait that long, but this one doesn't even break the bottom of the 0938 bar (which would be a swing low on a smaller interval, but there's no need to go to a tick chart for this).
Thank you, I was pointing at the fact that after the open and the break of the DL I was waiting for the bounce of S at 92 to be a RET (expecting continuation to the downside). The fact that the SL was broken and a HL was defined was what prompted the Fail alert there. But a simple REV would have been enough I guess as there is no failure. I will not be so light with the use of the term anymore.
This is the Market Replay Commentary for July 2 2013. At the open this was my view: In the daily we had bounced from the DL in an uptrend and away fron R at 3000. Prices were already above the MP of the last downswing which is bullish. In the hourly we were at S at 918 at the bottom of the TC, another bullish sign. In the 5 min we had broken the SL from 7:00 and a REV was in the making. 1. Just before the open, sellers rejected buyers attempt to break above LSH, but then failed to break S at 18, there came the opening volume pushing prices to the upside in a V Reversal, that took prices outside of the TR. 2. The BO from the TR gave birth the the uptrend, at first buyers had to deal with trades from the 7:30 congestion and the MP of the Downswing from 6:00 which decreased momentum but did not stop buyers from pushing higher. 3. There were 2 more rets before buyers stalled at 38, tried to find a reason but could not find any, besides R at 32 that was the MP of the downswing from the top of the TC in the 60 min. Then came a strong rejection that broke the TL. This break was followed by a LH just above S at 32, sellers managed to keep pushing anf prices broke below 32 with ease. 4. At 27 the MP of the upswing from the open sellers found demand, it was so strong that there was another V reversal that broke the SL from 9:56. 5. After the failure in the REV to the downside I assumed we were entering congestion, that was confirmed by multiple test of the 38 area on the top and 32 area in the Bottom. More notes are available in the chart. I liked from this exercise the fact that I now have more clarity about what to expect in prelim-S/R. The fact that I am paying attention to failures has helped me a lot in RT to spot new possible opportunities to backtest after I have finish this new round of observation. I am also watching at the tick chart (not posted) and finding interesting PA at the levels marked with blue circles. Nothing usable just yet but interesting nonetheless.
Daily We have exited the hinge and yesterday rally was the successful RET from that hinge. Now we are heading towards the top of the larger TR at 149, above that we are in the vacuum. 60 min Price is congested around PDH, R was found at 35 and S is currently around 25. 5 min We are currently approaching the bottom of the TR, I can´t see anything in particular.
9:44 buyers fading at 34, DL broken. I guess if long from the open I would have closed by now. 9:45 And now they are back, LSL held and a new RET was born. Pushing out of the TR. Hard reentry for me. 9:48 This is it, RET of FO. 9:55 35 held as R a small poke ended up in a DT and a LH in the 1 min. Now waiting for a REV to confirm itself 10:09 sellers are pushing, but buyers are not giving up easily, RETs are way too deep for my taste. Last upswing looks like buyers are trying to take control above 27.
10:14 Buyers held at 30 SL from 9:45 is gone and HL with break of LSH. Lets see what happens at 35. 10:28 This is a mess chop between 30 and 38, maybe a hinge, but I gave up on them....