Today´s prep work. We are out of the Up TC from yest, DL was broken in the daily. And at the time of this post we seem to be BO of the 41-53 TR. Below us, 630 is the new area of interest, but we are almost there, so if we dont bounce at 30, 15 could have some buyers.
30 provided buyers, but then sellers couldn't make it to 15, they got stuck around 20. Was a nice day, I think I getting somewhere with this scratching business, and I really like the calm it provides, as I said some days ago my thing with fear is ignorance, as long as I know what I am looking at fear just fades away.
My scratching goal is not yet achieved, but it is on the way, I just need to decide some details regarding execution and see if that works. Meanwhile there are some other goals I need to get into next week. 1. Trade a REV once spotted. 2. Re-entries 3. SAR 4. Stealth entries. I think I am getting better at spotting chop in RT, so avoiding Chop is getting easier, but I cant be never too overconfident that I learned to do something right. Lets see how it works next week.
We seem to be in an UT that started yest, so far we faced supply at the midline of the Daily TC as Db noted in his journal. That is around 50 at the moment. If we cant stay above 50 that would be a sign of overall weakness, if we can then we would also be back inside the 630-720 TR the same one we tried to leave last week, which MP is around 75. If we make it up then sellers might try to defend 35, if they cant we can see a nice jump all the way to the MP. If sellers hold 30 or even 35 then look for action at 590 and then 550 at the bottom of the daily TR.
A very interesting day as we broke back inside the TR and buyers looked for value at the MP, how odd . Tried a REV at a Prelim R from PM, but failed, I think I took too long to scratch this one. Other thing I plan on doing is to introduce these MPs into the equation, so far my SAR was reserved for extremes, but today the REV point was the MP of the TR that was spotted in prep work. Even if price bounced off the 50% at 58 and went up as expected SLA could have taken me back inside the trend so perhaps waiting so much is a waste of points. Something to think about. I will post the scratch file later.
You're mixing up intervals. 70 was the midpoint of the decline from the top at 3740 to the low at 3600. If price could not get past it, that would suggest weakness. And did. Therefore, there's no reason to wait and see if price finds strength at the midpoint of the rally from the open to 70. Even if it did, so what? I suggest you wait no longer than the last swing low to exit. Otherwise, you're just giving back the market's money to the market. Better still, given the failure to exceed 70, go ahead and short when the SLA tells you to