Don't rely too much on a TC that is so very short-term and is so narrow. For one, it may not last very long. For another, the mean, though it exists, may not provide any trading opportunities. Look, for example, how traders have treated it so far. What will more likely matter is a break out of all this, regardless of where the launching pad is.
Thanks, I will keep that in mind BTW this thing you said in the chat was a new Aha moment: "Remember that a ret is for giving those who missed a move to have a second chance. But there has to be a move to miss. No move, no motivation to jump in" I have observed that in the 1 min, price tends to get into TCs, once it does, then trying to enter on a RET is very hard, not because of the entries but because of the negative incursion, and the scratch required. I have tried to come up with an explanation, and you just provided it, thanks.
I gotta get in this chat lol. Stupid work haha. Here's a question how do you not miss the initial move??? From what I've been noticing price rejections often lead to real nice moves in the other direction.
Just quit your job, we are waiting for you . Yep, rejections are very interesting. Today example at 18 was very illustrative.
As some of us are working at scratching, I prepared a document during the day regarding what I am currently looking at. So far seems like 50% is the main sign (as W said, strength or weakness). The other things I was looking at are more conflicting, or perhaps is just me who is stupid . Well, the document is attached in a PDF. The trades explained in the PDF correspond to the ones identified in the 1 min chart also attached.
People don't miss it; they just don't trust it. They've been brainwashed into believing that the market is out to get them, to trick them, to take their money. But nobody is taking their money; rather they're giving it away because they have no idea what they're looking at; therefore, they have no idea what to do with it. Many beginning traders â and many not-so-beginning traders â have trouble trading this because they think that the market, or the "big" money, or the "smart" money, is out to get them, to trick them. It never occurs to them that neither the market nor the big/smart money could care less about them. Therefore they are forever looking out for the trick, the trap, the gotcha, and are thus guarding themselves against a threat that doesn't exist, making all the wrong decisions at the wrong times. It's really just a matter of looking for trades, which is after all the business of trading. If, for example, traders can find trades out of the bottom of a trading range, great. If there are none, traders will search for trades out of the top of the range. This doesn't mean that anybody "tricked" anybody into selling the breakdown. It means only that there was no business there. This is also why first exits from hinges are so often in the opposite direction from the ultimate move. Knowing this gives the trader the confidence to reverse his position. And, yes, sometimes there are no trades out of the opposite side, either. Then everybody returns to their corners and futzes around inside the range for a while, and the "price action" trader is standing aside, waiting for everybody to decide what they want to do. Quite often what they want to do is go to lunch. Or home.
This is what I see at the moment. We are in a downtrend, not sure if it deserves a channel or if it matters, but I am observing how prices behaves inside these channels and most of the time is mind blowing. I traced a TC from left to right (the blue one), although it looks as if traced it from right to left . But the point is I don't wanna be looking at bunnies in the clouds so any contrary opinion will be well received. BTW there was a congestion on the 3rd with an MP in 60 and by the history behind it 60 seems important, so lets pay attention to it. it also coincides at the time with the bottom of the blue TC. If we manage to go lower then we are bounded by the TR 640-724
I've often wondered why some people seem to get this so easily, and others (myself) seem to struggle. Something Hooti had posted in his journal written by RN and I am paraphrasing " this business isn't like any other where you could work harder and be successful, you have to do the right things at the right time". Seems to describe me pretty well, I have come to understand this isn't a question of technical knowledge Db has given me all I need to be successful. In the future I am going to spend more of my time on how I think rather than how I trade and see if that doesn't jingle any bells , nice post.