I used to have the expectation for price to go my way after my entry, that is the worst, as you justify your decision and ignore all evidence building against your trade. I have turned into observing after the trade is triggered, if behavior does not comply with what should be weakness (if short) or strength (if long), then I exit, no regrets, no hard feelings. Still not sure my interpretations of weakness and strength are appropriate but I feel I am on the right path.
I have always been intrigued by the T&S and sort of the mystique of being a "tape reader" ala Wyckoff and Livermore. I don't think though that Wyckoff and Livermore saw as many transactions going through that the modern day time and sales window shows. I'd assume there was more of a time delay. I dropped the time and sales and just started focusing on the price scale to the right of the chart as almost my "time and sales." I don't need to see every transaction that goes through at 3700 for example so just watching the ticker on the 1m chart go up and down sort of filters that info. I am trying to explain it but I don't know if I am doing a good job lol. Price moving up and down that scale how far, how long, and how fast tells us a lot about the behavior of traders. If all you had was the T&S you wouldn't necessarily be able to know when a sl or dl was broken (unless you made the pnf like you are), but you would know high points, low points, and 50% points. Sometimes I think that even thinking in waves in terms of bars almost distracted me also looking at the angles/how sharp the up wave was to the down wave when really what matters most is the pace in which price is moving, how long the movement lasts, the distance it moves and in what direction. Now I can see the wave and sort of feel the wave and the bars just help me to remember quickly the past. What's help me also and kind of made all of this a bit more fun is thinking about it as just an up and down numbers game. When price is moving and traders are trading do I want to be going up or going down and when observing if I don't know which way I want to go then that tells me something. Sorry if this doesn't make sense I try to put my thoughts to words don't know how successful I am lol.
Yes I am doing that on replay. I still feel a disconnect between PA and me, I felt that when delving into scratching, although the tick chart is quite illustrative, my pattern filled head still betrays me. I don't know if it will help too much, but I am sure it wont hurt. After 2 days of replay there are plenty of things that pop up in my head. For one, is very interesting to be able to see volume building up in the T&S and to feel the speed as numbers move up and down.
Well, today focus was an issue, watching the T&S helps a lot, but requires too much focus, I think that is good as an exercise, because I am forcing myself to focus more each day. Like going to the Gym for the first week. Everything hurts . The upside, is that I am able to see price from a diferent perspective, I am able to understand that each trade is an agreement between a buyer and a seller, and that sometimes, the agreement only has a handful of counterparts that just dont make a difference, so price is rejected from those levels. Like what happened today at the top of the TC (710). The drill, is really not that hard, I took me a long time to accept it, because I think I realized it a long time ago, but just didnt listen (at my own peril). Wait for the damn extremes and trade those when the opportunity arrives, if it doesnt, then risk yourself to a subpar entry. Now, even if one is stubborn and risks a subpar entry, (if one missed the boat at the beginning). If one understands how PA works (not that I do) and knows where to enter on a RET, one can always scratch and limit the pain to a couple of ticks. If you scratch too often, well you might not be attuned with the market, so just stop trading, after all you are supposed to be a trader not a gambler . As for today, as was discussed on the chat I tried a REV entry off the rejection of 7:10, this trade was taken off the failure of buyers to find better prices above 710, at the top of the TC and below 50% of the downwave from friday. After the entry was not scratched and went in the expected direction, management by the rules was the way to go (1 contract at the 1st HL, one contract at the break of LSH and 1 contract at either 50% or a REV at the bottom of the hourly TC.) Around 11, I was thinking about going long, but then my inability to focus on the T&S was the clue to avoid doing anything, one of the greatest lessons I learned so far is to avoid doing something stupid just because I cant focus. I also took 2 trades before the REV entry, those were both scratched, the second scratch sucked, because I had some technical stuff wrong with ninja and i couldn't press the close button . Well, more experience, the first time is ignorance, the second is .....
I think this is a big one Niko, how many times have we heard Db say price is a movie not a slideshow. Maybe we'll both learn to wait for those extremes lol I speak only of myself when I say, I think I make this harder than it has to be. Good trading
The context: So we finally reached 50% of the downmove from 740, and are currently on the top of the hourly TC. If the TC does its job then a visit to 700 would be our first stop, and if sellers are really committed then 690. But what if buyers decide is time to move up, then I think the 720-27 area will provide them with the required supply.