Ok, here is the first application of the plan 1. After a SC at 8:30 buyers managed to hold prices and a long was initiated, the trade was short lived as sellers defended 50% of the last downmove and pressed hard. Generating a scratch (-3) 2. Sellers did not go anywhere. and buyers managed to push prices above 50% fast so a Re-entry was in place. Buyers were able to take prices to the R that formed after the data release, at that level Sellers came in and broke the stride of the trend. After buyers failed to make a new high the first part of the trade was closed. The other conditions for exit were not met therefore the rest of the trade remained. Price formed a hinge before the open, that hinge resolved to the upside and then sellers tested its apex. Buyers kept prices rising until they finally reached 50% of the downmove in the daily. At this level it was expected that something happen. As price gave signs of a Reversal the way to go was to close the rest of the position. (18.5+27+27) 3. The Reversal also meant an entry in the opposite direction, but this trade was short lived as buyers also managed to hold prices from falling and pushed prices towards the R area at 24. (+3.75) 4. As buyers failed to take prices above 24 and even achive 24 in their next attempt a new entry was triggered. As soon as buyers started to show strengt, the first part of this trade was closed. Sellers then manage to keep control under 50% of the last downmove and pushed prices lower, reaching the 50% from the upswing from 8:30, there after a rejection of this level the rest of the trade was closed. (+7.75x3) 5. Once again buyers strength around an important S level meant a new entry in the direction of the trade. THis trade was very much like 1, where after a first try to run away, buyers gave up and sellers tested 50% generating an exit (-1.5) 6. Just like in 2, the failure to reach lower prices by the sellers was the sign to jump back in on a re-entry. The first of this trades was closed as buyers stall and the stride of the trend was broken. As prices reached 24 again and once again a sell signal triggered the trade was closed in full. (8+11.75*2) 7. The trade was reversed. But this trade was rapidly closed as sellers failed to get a following. (-1.75*3)
I am very curious about that big spike at the 8:30 bar. It is over 35 points! Since I have just started watching NQ... does this happen often? Was it some news story that came out? Any way to prepare for this? If people were trading before the open, I'm sure lots of stops got hit, and could this have contributed to the sudden plunge? Just wondering what to make of this.
08:30 CAD Employment Change 29.4K 20.0K -1.7K 08:30 CAD Full Employment Change 50.5K -5.0K 08:30 CAD Part Time Employment Change -21.1K 3.3K 08:30 CAD Participation Rate 66.3% 66.0% 66.4% 08:30 CAD Unemployment Rate 7.0% 7.0% 7.2% 08:30 USD Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 08:30 USD Average Weekly Hours 34.4 34.4 34.4 08:30 USD Nonfarm Payrolls 113K 185K 75K 08:30 USD Private Nonfarm Payrolls 142K 185K 89K 08:30 USD Unemployment Rate 6.6% 6.7% 6.7%
So if it has to do with regular economic numbers that are posted... its best to just not be in the market I take it?
Before the regular market hours, the numbers have greater effect on the price as there are less participants. During regular hours, usually one can get away without paying attention to the numbers. I don't trade intra-day, but when I did simulation trading, I did use intra-day, and at times felt better by staying out when major numbers were coming. It's a personal choice, and usually if one feels fearful, it's better to avoid that time. Once one gets a hang of it, then the fear is reduced, and one may choose to stay in. As you gain experience, you'll decide what you want to do. You're in charge of your own trading and no one else. Gringo
I concur with G. Now in the intraday world you dont wanna be in a recently initiated position 1 min before the data relase, as volatility will increase much more than most people can handle. Rigth after the datarelease, I have noticed that players tend to come in when S/R levels are reached and those provide very interesting entry opportunities as yesterday in NQ.
Ok, I have been reflecting upon what to post on my journal, and given that the pre-requisite to participate in the chat is to post in the journal I have to comply as well. I know the drill, I can see S/D dynamics, in RT I can spot entries and I have discovered that once one enters, the mindset has to change, no more looking for entries, but for reasons to stay once the trade is in the clear. In that case one can clasify the trades in three types: Those that just sit there after you enter Those that give you a little joy and then run against you Those that put you in the green immediately and never look back. Still compiling stats, regarding the best way to scratch, as 1 and 2 must be scratched differently. Once a trade has been saved of being scratched then you are in a trend, and not only you are in a trend the whole market is and there are many participants that see the same thing you see, as prices move further away, other players start to notice this, and start making decisions, some join, propelling the trend forward, some take profits generating retracements, that depending on who is taking profits might push the market into what in the lower intervals looks like a REV in the making. Then the next step is to be able to identify the trend, and see from price action itself if the newly formed trend will have the ability to overcome the obstacles ahead or it will yield to an stronger opposing force. I have also learned that If I am not in at the beginning of the move, I am at the mercy of fear and hope, so at first I will have to avoid, BO entries, and RET entries in the middle of the trend. The basics of the plan still the same, Buy when the downtrend is over and buyers show they want the stuff by holding prices above LSL, Sell when the uptrend is over and sellers show they wanna get rid of the stuff by not paying more that was was achieved at the LSH. Once In, exit in steps, holding a piece of the trade in the expectation of a trend day, where the 50% of the initial move never gets hit.
Wow. That's a quantum leap from the days of you talking about exiting at LSH or with a fixed stop value. Great stuff. Keep up with this sort of thinking.