For example, beginning at 0800, there is no long trade as I define it. This is followed by a short op which would be stopped out almost immediately. There is no long op after that unless you define 0840 as a double bottom. There is then another short op which might yield two points by the open. So you have two possible trades, one of which would be stopped out and one which would yield two points. Maybe. Compare and contrast that with the earlier trades I referred to.
Well, regarding the long at 0800 i agree that at the time my bias was short given the trend from 0710. At the V rev at 0809 my thought was SC given the parabolic nature of the movement (now looks like a small swing but at the time looked parabolic.) The clue to exit the short here was the strong upswing around 0815 that broke the 50% level above S at 05, but given that it was a V REV I would have not consider it for a long. I would have consider a long at the next RET around 0822, but it turned into a REV and an opp to take the short side. LSHs held until sellers gave up above 06, no long there either as I knew I was in a TR and the potential would have been limited to 11. From there no trades would have been valid, at the BO of the small hinge about 0947 that occurred after a series of HLs i was thinking about the possibilities of entry, but I still had R at 11 and that did not look good either. Around 0953 there was another RET but given the nature of the parabolic move from the TR it looked pretty risky as it proved to be. Regarding the strong RET at 1005 I don't see how to take that long with confidence so far. Last think that i noticed was that buyers found R at 25 inside the 22 - 50 TR. and price is now reverting. direction, there is still upside risk as 21 remains a valid 50% level. 21 held and sellers failed to make a LL, now buyers are pushing in that looks like a continuation of the trend. If buyers can take 26 then we would be inside a TC.
I reviewed this one, I thought I posted earlier but at 0730 The Ret was forming and you were right about the short. But for me I think i would have entered around 11 and closed it 08.
Daily Looks like we are at the bottom of a daily hinge, that formed after buyers failed to make a HH at 250. 60 min From this perspective it looks like we are in a highly congested area filled with hinges that end up making a wider TR between 200 and 250. This morning price found S at the apex of Thursday´s hinge and is currently above the 50% of last down swing from 21. Levels to watch 250 235 220 200 190 180
Looks like sellers are pushing , this means a pot break of DL in 5 min and a RET at the 60 min. Lets see if they can hold it.
30 finally provided R and from there a downtrend that held until 17 originated. My comments: At the open the apex of Thursday´s hinge held sellers from completing what at the time looked like a RET on a downtrend on the 60 min chart. 1. After a strong upswing buyers held the market and pushed for a HL, this is where I started to think about joining the long side. 2. This one was tricky, as the LH formed I thought about changing my bias, but then again after the strong rally towards 25 this looked as a RET and as 40 said some days ago if the LOLR is up you have to look for reasons to stay in not to get out. 3. There was another strong downwave, this one was different as buyers had been struggling after reaching 30. 4. But given what happened in 2, I was thinking about giving the buyers more breathing room, and after a HL I was convinced this was the way to go. 5. Then it was sellers who managed to hold buyers below 50% level of the downswing and pushed harder so now the bias was down. 6 Buyers tried to push at 20 but were rejected below the 50% mark. 7. 17 provided buyers then these buyers prevented prices to fall below the 50% mark of the last swing. It was something similar to what happened in 5. At the time of the post buyers are trying to break above 25, this would mean that current trend would be up.
So far, I have found with this observations that focusing on strength and weakness via the 50% level can help in the process of defining if a trade should be exited or given some breathing room. Its been a couple of days and I have already started to spot things that were invisible to me when using bars.