Normal result this year is an up day the first "Monday" of the month in some cases a large gap up in certain sectors and commodities. There is no "squeeze" it's an index. I'm not sure why you were bearish that would require a catalyst and things went up mildly for 8 days isn't a real catalyst. A change of pace is pure guessing at this point. Only catalyst I can see is WTI drops $3-$4 on Opec+ news. Not a likely result based on reported production targets but possible. Far more likely WTI trends up this week Anything's possible but we've had a lot of pattern trading this year.
The components in these indexes are gigantic; if the Hunt brothers couldn't corner the Silver market I'm doubting the SPY really moves much on trader etf action. Now if a bunch of fund managers make huge computer generated buys or sells they can move markets. Which can happen at certain levels when markets move a lot or there is really important news. I'm no expert on SPY but I'm just not believing a "squeeze" is the right theory here. An individual stock sure.
Short Interest (Shares Short) 153,880,000 Short Interest (Shares Short) - Prior 139,620,000 Short % Increase / Decrease 10 % Outstanding shares =876.93M as of 2/18. If my math is correct, more than 15% of the float is shorted which is no small number.
I took a quick look; 876.9M shares of the etf represents a market cap of 391B US$ and the stocks themselves are worth 33.4 Trillion dollars ( as of Dec 31 ). So the etf capital is roughly 1% of the market cap. How much of the stock float is shorted and how has that changed ? And could the SPY shorts merely indicate more hedging as markets rise ?
Ok, I looked it up the SPY is just an etf that replicates the performance of the SPX 500. It's a passive instrument meaning your theories on short squeezes in the SPY are just wrong.
My theory is the SPY ETF can influence the performance of companies in the S&P 500 >S&P 500 companies represent the SPX index performance. If that wasn't at least partly true, than nobody would need to monitor the SPY for indication of where the market is headed. But I am not market knowledgeable enough to argue the point. It just seems to make the most logical sense to me.