In the morning I just wanted to watch the price action utilizing the PDL and PDH lines on the charts. It was more of a tutorial session (and still is) to get used to the respective support and resistance lines. Once the Fed minutes were release I typically am not comfortable enough yet to trade the wild swings that follow. Rules are rules so I wanted to adhere to them as if this was live trading.
Entering and exiting is just an on and off switch. If you allow the comfortable to get in your way, you will miss out on lunch. Markets do swing but you don't need to be in in the death bar, that is in a state of confusion, there is still time to enter after. I myself like wide swing bars that have a firm close, but cherry pickers are not always money makers. Its those risky days that bring home the beacon. Its those entries that you fear most, like the pull back pause that you hesitate to get into, until it gives you a confirmation that ends up being false. Risk small and don't hesitate, remember its just Paper trading.
I think my main priority going forward is to just survive once I go live again, which won't be for a while. So my paper trade account will emulate this strategy by only taking the trades with a high probability of winning to build up the account and confidence level. Slow dough is better than no dough!
Read some of my posts in the ES thread I started. I am now concentrating on ORB, BMC and TFC as mentioned in those posts. As I mentioned, it is best to master outside day trading first by waiting for breaks of PDH and PDL. When you get good at this, you can then bring in the S&R lines to trade intraday, but there are a few other things you have to watch closely when trading intraday, as you can get whipsawed all over the place if using tight stops similar to what you can use for breaks of PDH and PDL. Unfortunately, no matter what any person tells you or shows you, the only way you can learn is by trading live, with many winning and losing trades. There is no other way to get the experience, as you can not get experience by just reading and listening to what others say. In fact, the worst thing you can do is listen to others, as it will do nothing but waste your time and lose you money. Just sit back and think about what you are doing. You are trying to take money from people who are trading billions of $$ of other people's money (OPM), who get paid large salaries no matter what happens the OPM. They would not be trading over 1K contracts on the ES if it was their own money, that is one thing for sure. Our objective, as a small little retail trader, is to sit back and not get sucked in, wait for the best opportunities to present themselves, which are the low risk ones, and then jump in and out and say "Thank You, Mr Eastwood". If you approach trading the same as the rest, then you will more than likely fail like the rest. You need to adopt the correct mindset from the start. The more you know can be a major disadvantage when it comes to making money trading. One thing you must know about, is fully understanding risk, for without it you are doomed to failure in the long run. After many years you will look back and say to yourself, "if only I knew then what I now know". I do not like when I see idiots posting as if they know everything about trading, as the reality is that you do not have to know much, but you do have to know about how not to lose too much money so that you can make money when the opportunities present themselves. It really is that simple, which is exactly why most never get it, and the same old things just keep on happening over and over. These sites are a prime example. Go back 7 years and read some posts. I bet you it will be just the same old stuff with a few different heads.
2016-10-13 Summary Daily P&L: -0.75 (5 trades, 1 break-even, 2 winners, 2 losers) Trade Summary Trade 1: The market gapped down below the PDL, and there was some strength to the sell off so I shorted at 4772.00. Could have increased my profit-take to capture additional profits, however I was nervous about the reversal after such a large sell off already. [+5.25] Trade 2 to 4: All bad trades as the market approached Line A, I was confused about whether to go long or short. It broke 4783.00 numerous times (resistance line based on today's open) however failed take off. Instead of just waiting patiently for a major move I went back and forth until I confused myself. This is the type of situation I hope to avoid in the future. [Trade 2: -8.00] [Trade 3: -2.75] [Trade 4: +0.50] Trade 5: Once the market broke above Line A with a lot of strength, I knew it was time to stay long. Waited for the pull back to close to Line A and entered at 4786.50. My profit-take was too conservative as I could have captured a lot more gains. [+4.25] Previously I had changed my max trades to 3, however in light of utilizing the PDL and PDH lines I find myself being able to take trades a lot sooner compared to before. So my max trades per day has increased back to 5, and once I hit that today I stopped. Had I been more patient and not taken trades 2 to 4, I would have placed myself in a better position to enter additional trades when the rally emerged in the afternoon. A reminder to be more selective with each and every trade. I was originally only using the 1 mins / 2 mins charts today, however I had to utilize the intraday 10 mins / 20 mins chart as well as it helped confirm the trend for me. These longer time frames provide a smoothing effect and assist with identifying the overall trends. I have posted above for reference. Things to (continue to) focus on: -More patience on the trade set up (wait longer until I take the 1st trade, for the range and chart patterns to develop) -Need to mentally visualize potential chart formations both to the upside and downside (anything can happen), and strategize my game plan -Protect profits (do not hesitate to exit and take profits at current levels when market is exhibiting signs of slowing down / utilize time stop) -Okay to miss entry and not make a single trade for the day -Always keep the overall trend in mind (will it trend or will it range?) -After every trade (win or lose), take some time to assess before entering the next trade
Thanks a lot for your posts! I will definitely go back and check out some of the material here on ET! Don't know why I haven't gotten around to it.. but I agree the material is here to assist me to be successful! Will definitely check out the thread you started! Any other ones you recommend? Thanks again!
2016-10-14 Summary Daily P&L: +0.75 (5 trades, 1 break-even, 2 winners, 2 losers) Trade Summary Trade 1: The market gapped up above the PDH and it looked poised to rally upwards so I entered on the pull back at 4832.00. I could have entered at a lower price so I exited at 4833.00 and tried to re-enter, which resulted in me missing the major move! [+1.00] Trade 2: The charts were forming a flat top wedge and I thought the market was going to break above the resistance level so I re-entered long at 4834.50 during the pull back. However, the trend changed and the market sold off hard. [-8.00] Trade 3: Flipped short when the market broke below support levels. Sold way too early. [+3.25] Trade 4: After the hard sell off, the market broke above the PDH and showed support at this level so I went long again at 4810.50. I did not realize Janet Yellen was going to speak at 1:30pm so I was in position as the volatility picked up, and was able to move my stop to 4818.75 for a gain of +8.25. [+8.25] Trade 5: Thought the uptrend would continue into the rest of the afternoon, however the market ended up selling off pretty hard. A tight stop just below the support line minimized losses for this one. [-3.50] Did a better job today being patient and waiting for certain levels to be hit before making a move. Had I been more patient with Trade 1 and 3, it could have been a very profitable day. Need to focus more emphasis on the charts as I learn how to assess Market Depth / Book Trader, as the fluctuations from these platforms threw me off and made me sold early. Things to (continue to) focus on: -More patience on the trade set up (wait longer until I take the 1st trade, for the range and chart patterns to develop) -Need to mentally visualize potential chart formations both to the upside and downside (anything can happen), and strategize my game plan -Protect profits (do not hesitate to exit and take profits at current levels when market is exhibiting signs of slowing down / utilize time stop) -Okay to miss entry and not make a single trade for the day -Always keep the overall trend in mind (will it trend or will it range?) -After every trade (win or lose), take some time to assess before entering the next trade Weekly P&L: -10.50
Do not waste your time checking out anything, as you will not find anything worthwhile here, or on any other site also. The internet is full of people who pretend to be someone they are not. It is a great place for most to fantasize and dream. It is very easy to see real fast if the person knows what he or she is speaking about, as in ask them to post details of live trade with chart marked up. You will be amazed how many so called experts back down when asked such a simple thing to do. Hypothetical trades are just that. They are not worth a dime. You lost money trading in the past because you did not know what you were doing. You did not know because you adopted the same approach as most do. If you follow the crowd then how do you expect to get anything different. If I was you, I would stop writing your thoughts in public, as it is a complete waste of time. Get a simple notebook, write down the date for each day, write down the monthly, weekly, daily and hourly High and Lows, and the current price. That would be a very good starting point to get you focused. Of course, the odds of you doing it are very slim.