Not exactly. All moves during the night session (NS) are automatically normalized against each other. So if someone says, a ten point move in the night session without a retrace is exceptional, by definition, they are already taking into account "thin liquidity periods, all kinds of goofy (and totally meaningless) stuff can happen." "Obviously", or at least I thought so, I was not implying that a ten point move during RTH should be compared to a move during the night session :eek: That is why I asked if you had done the following analysis: 1) During RTH, how many days and what percentage of all trading days since the inception of the NQ have had a ten handle move without a 1 handle retrace move off the bottom any time during the day. 2) Now do the same calculation after hours. [clearly, this needs to be normalized to the average volume for each period. If you normalize by their respective stddev, you can then compare a 10 handle move without a one handle retrace during RTH to a 10 handle move without a one handle retrace during the night session] Well, normalized for the stddev of the average volume at that time of the day, a 300 lot of trades that moved the NQ ten points would have statistical significance if over the entire life of the NQ contract, these events were rare, _by_definition_. That is why I asked if you had done the analysis above. Again, I have done the analysis and the data does not bear out what you are saying. A ten point move at any time since the inception of the NQ, not during realtime hours, without a handle retrace, _is_ statistically significant. "Vertical" to me is appropriate for this kind of a move. If the NQ had been up 20 without say a five handle retrace in the same time period as the move last night (I have not done that analysis, so I don't know what it would be,) the wording would have been "ballistic." Probably the disagreement or confusion comes from the fact that people expected the NQ to be up 20 points or something when they read the title of the thread. What is funny is that, if the NQ had been up 20 points, and it had gone up ten then down ten then up ten, then up two then down one, then up two, and so on so that by 8:29, the NQ was up 20 points, some people would give have had less objections to that move than the one that I thought was impressive and given that move greater weight than the move last night. Given the time period that it took to move and the amount of retrace, the statistical analysis of the data would assign roughly equal weight to both, assuming you are using certain "modern" statistical machinery, e.g., look at the recent section on time in the article by Vic N in Active Trader Magazine. nitro
nitro - being buried in the statistics is like not being able to see the forest for the trees. The idea that there can reasonably be "statistical" significance in a market presumes relative stability and rationality of the dynamic structure - which thinly trading markets rarely/if ever have. Thin trading is a fertile field for blips of all kinds - someone twitches over a rumor, there's not enough liquidity so the twitch causes a move that would otherwise be negligible, the move makes the comparatively few others watching the thin market similarly twitchy. That it took hours to resolve only highlights skittishness in the night session participants. Microscopically and statistically interesting perhaps (but only perhaps), macrocosmically and pragmatically interesting - not really. Bottom line - if you made money off it, congrats. If not, worrying about futher is a waste of time.
ArchAngel, I agree with you about getting too excited about "statistics." The thing is, I don't know how else to measure the non RTH markets? The NS has always been a mystery to me. I made no money off the move because I did not want to stay up all night and entertain myself reading the God thread while I waited endlessly for my profit or stop loss. Everytime I have traded the overnight session so far, I made 1/4 and lost a 1/4, and stayed up 24 hours straight for both of those results. In retrospect, it was worth an easy three of four handles per contract if I was willing to stay up until 3:00 AM in the morning. nitro