Discipline is really tough to learn. Tougher then pattern formations, trendline break, 3BRs, etc. At least for me. I find myself impatient, and I want to jump in on that first break up/down. I usually get burnt, unless the market is in total panic. Today for instance, shorting the new lows, was absolutely terrible. I'm trying to do that now, with AHG. I'm trying to learn that method as best as I can, then perhaps tweak it or modify it to meet my style, if need be. Still reading through that whole thread! I may start a journal of my own if I improve. Right now it'd just be a laughing stock. Good luck!
No... the only way you'll be a laughing stock is if you profess to be a guru. Come in admitting your faults and I think you'll be ok. That's been my experience...
Current PnL is at $-590. Slowly chipping back to positive taking very conservative trades. Finally also getting enough stats on some of the setups that are easily quantifiable with median lines and fibs and dragon patterns that I am getting some relevant information as to what's working and what isn't. Will keep on logging my trades though and keeping track of the stats as I am definitely seeing this could benefit me.
If I'm proven wrong I will stick my tail between my legs but... I see a 5 wave structure on my 7k chart and I see the following bullish structure on the smaller time frame. Will look to go long on first reversal candle if the pattern holds. http://elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1747134
Kid, you perfectly exemplify my trading philosophy: "Never give up!". Could you enlighten us as to why you chose to trade NQ in the first place, as opposed to ES, ER2, or YM? Not an implied criticism, I am an NQ trader myself.
Hehe I hope your first comment is a compliment! I'm too stubborn to quit... Although I havn't been trading futures long at all < 4 months, when I first began I tried the ER2, ES, and NQ out. I stayed away from the YM because of common sense which told me it was the less volatile contract of all. I don't remember having much luck with the ES and I didn't like the fact that even if I had a tight entry < 1.5 pt stop I would be taking an 80 dollar loss. Because I plan on using 5 k when I start trading futures I know myself and this would limit my trading opportunities as taking trades that can cost me 200-300 bucks is against my risk tolerance on that account size. The ER2 I don't think I had a losing day on when I started out trading it, but it scares me because of the value per point as well. I know the learning curve in this game is big and the ER2 seems that it wouldn't have much mercy on me on a bad day. I chose the NQ because it seemed the safest to trade and it trended well. Didn't hurt that I was up like 2 k on my sim account my first week in hehe. I knew it was luck, but I also realized that at the time frame I'm looking at I NEVER need to take a stop loss bigger than 3 pts. That's a 65 buck loss. Most of my positions, I'm taking stop losses < 2 pts. This gives me at least some chance of staying in the game as I'm learning and keeps me psychologically able to execute my plan because 60 dollars is an ok amount of risk on a 5000 dollar account for intraday trading. Thanks for your post. I appreciate the encouragement. One step at a time for me does it... EDIT: Judging by some of the posts i've read from you in the past... you are way past the point of "never give up". Maybe some day I can be there with you...
Thanks for the background, Kid. The most important part of "never give up" is "never go broke". Take my advice, your 2 point stop is way too fucking wide. I use 3 ticks for NQ. If you're THAT wrong, you're REALLY wrong.
Jethro... thanks for checking up on me. I have been trading each morning still. Things have been slow as I work on being more disciplined. I instituted some new rules for myself. 1. Never ever go against the higher time frame trend (defined by 2 swings high/low or a major trend shift with a topping/bottom pattern and 1 swing high/low). 2. Always have at least 4 confirming factors to take a position. These factors include fib levels, trendlines, pitchfork lines, reversal bars, pivot highs/lows, volume patterns, chart pattern as context, etc. 3. Never take positions around key points on the higher time frame chart without confirmation from the lower. It's an ongoing process for me as I become more confident in what works and what doesn't. I record nearly all of my setups and trading days as well with commentary. Perhaps I'll start posting this for advice. Here goes... http://img162.imageshack.us/my.php?image=ndxts0.jpg This is how I see the nasdaq 100. Elliot wave, trendlines, and median lines, and fib levels have been an enormous help in me getting the feel of the overall market and have *especially* been responsive recently as seen in the chart. My project over the weekend is to mark the indicies up to see how these tools and others have been influencing the indicies over the past few years. Although I have not confirmed this, my eye tells me that the indicies lend themselves VERY well to technical analysis. Especially longer term... http://img162.imageshack.us/my.php?image=ndxts0.jpg This image, the buy is represented by the blue arrow and my stop by the pink. I saw lots of confirming factors, but the anchor chart was overwhelmingly bearish. In fact, I've noticed this has happened so many times with me that I decided to institute the rule I stated above. http://img85.imageshack.us/my.php?image=6factorsfailureagainstatg1.jpg This is the same chart except the other potential buy area I was looking at was at 13:25. Here we had a total of 6 confirming factors and the setup still failed. This is just more proof that for countertrend, everything must really come together. This is a potential short I saw with the trend that I did not take during the trading day (near the black line). The reasons (5) for the short are listed http://img120.imageshack.us/my.php?image=fibsvolumetrendlinerevehq2.jpg This is a short on my anchor chart that I did not take because I do not trade off of the anchor, but it still represented a nice trade (4 confirming factors) that I can potentially do in the future when my stops can be bigger. http://img186.imageshack.us/my.php?image=pivotmedianlinevolfib11yj7.jpg The next chart the potential short that I didn't take has its entry around 13:50. Notice the 4 confirming factors. All of the setups presented so far have been at least 2:1 r/w which is a criteria I like to have on all my trades. http://img293.imageshack.us/my.php?image=pivotmedianlinevol2fibseu6.jpg This chart is my anchor chart from the 15th and shows another good potential short, but I cannot take it because of the amount i'm willing to risk and the fact that I trade off of a smaller time frame. Regardless, I like keeping all potential setups to reinforce good habits and to get at least some statistical data on the reliability of the factors that go into each trade. http://img148.imageshack.us/my.php?image=pivotmedianlinevol2fibspi9.jpg The previous chart points to a setup that I didn't take because the retracement levels for fibs only included 38.2 and 23.6 - two levels that through my initial testing have come out to be pretty useless without more confirming factors. The fact that it worked, I believe is because it was with the trend and, an exception to the rule. Not the general consensus. But, I must keep track of every setup for accurate record keeping... http://img240.imageshack.us/my.php?image=pivotmedianlinevolfibfamr8.jpg This chart of the 14th shows a setup near 11:10 that failed completely that normally would be a perfectly valid setup in my opinion. They all can't be winners, though. http://img213.imageshack.us/my.php?image=fibsvolpivotsuccesswtrein8.jpg Here we see how powerful going with the trend is. Only 3 confluences at 14:00 ish (not including the reversal bar which puts me at unfavorable r/w). http://img301.imageshack.us/my.php?image=fibsvoltrendlinesuccessug6.jpg Again we see the same thing here at 13:50. It's a shame I wasn't taking these setups, but I am not going to overstate my skill in trading. I need to see things so many times and have data on those things so that I have complete confidence. Until I do that, I won't be able to trade properly. http://img186.imageshack.us/my.php?image=failurefibpitchforkpivolt7.jpg This chart shows a potential short setup failing at 15:31 because zooming out we were forming a double bottom. Also, volume on the 5 minute pattern was clearly indicating accumulation. http://img99.imageshack.us/my.php?image=2trendlinesmedianlinevoku3.jpg The previous chart is a setup I was looking at today but did not take it. It started out with 4 confirming factors and ended up giving 6. I was left in the dust. Oh well, the first step to gaining confidence is to see a setup pass me by 1000 times and then taking it the 1001th time. http://img146.imageshack.us/my.php?image=downtrendlinebreakrevcaob4.jpg The previous chart speaks a lot and I should have listened. The long at the arrow had many reasons to go wrong. And of course, it did. I was "hoping" that I could get my first profit of the day and instead I got a loss. http://img211.imageshack.us/my.php?image=2tlsvolfibpivot11608zg0.jpg The setup above worked beautifully because of confluence of 5 different things. I took the bar on the pullback to the reversal bar which meant 6 confirming factors, but 5 was plenty if i was quicker on the draw. http://img155.imageshack.us/my.php?image=fibpivotmediandragonfaixc4.jpg I thought the previous setup was sure to work because of the confluence of a dragon (TL break and double bottom) but because we made a lower low on the anchor (my only explanation) we failed to follow through initially after the pullback, though the pattern did work a bit later. That's it for now.
Hehe funny about the first part because now I'm -$730 again. Will try to be even more careful with the way I trade. Today was alright, ended up -40 and didn't have time to finish the day. Day before was -120. Hopefully it's just screen time... Looking at my charts, are there any setups that appealed to you? If not, how do you get stop that small? On a few of them if I *don't* wait for the reversal candle my initial stop can be as small as 1 pt for a target of +4. That seems to be a pretty damn good scenario, but harder to do in the heat of the moment.