Discussion in 'Index Futures' started by CopperOverGold, May 24, 2021.
Hanging curve ball
Off topic, but OP, you'd buy copper over gold today, is that correct?
Things change. That’s the problem with narratives. So, no. At best, the ratio consolidates here. But I don’t think so.
I’ve noticed you’re positioned for inflation. And you have a whole fundamental analysis/story associated with it, and it’s all pretty obvious to you. From my perspective, that’s a blind spot. That was the story. That’s now over. What I’m reading-
The base metals move is over. As are others in the commodity space. I dumped the remainder of my steel and aluminum today. Dead money (I do still own nue, but not. The gold and silver setups are pretty sweet though. Let’s see if they breakout. They have in every other currency. Yields to drop. Significantly. Everyone is mispositioned for this.
tldr; change my name to goldovercopper. It won’t b
I’m actively working on building a short for copper.
Broader market behavior has a significant impact on which commodities do well short term. When we are at key resistance points several things have to line up to get a break out to new highs. Of course, for the stocks themselves a break out in the commodity can be extremely lucrative even just for a day or two. Or vice versa if the commodity drops rapidly.
For example, in the bullish market scenario today Oil is doing really well, Copper has reversed course ( not sure how it will do after today ), Silver outperformed Gold, Gold was disappointing. The catch with Gold is how strong will the inflation story and Bitcoin story be in terms of pushing Gold price up. And if broader markets drop any, will Gold drop with them again.
Cant say I agree with much outside of gold and silver are looking really good. Once that stops, I’ll be out. Small position in oil, but until it breaks out, it’s just hanging. It’s close though. Happy trading
CopperOverGold, thanks so much! Yes, I think inflation is coming big, based on the fact that:
1. The Fed printed 23%+ of the U.S. dollars in existence last year.
2. The U.S. government shows no signs of slowing down its spending. So more 23%+ increases (or thereabouts, possibly more) in the money supply in the upcoming years.
3. I don't see how economic growth can be anywhere near enough (i.e. close to ~23%) to soak up those increases in $$$.
4. Huge increases in SSS accompanied by much smaller increases in goods/services in economy typically mean inflation over the long run.
Do you see any of the above differently? Do you not see massive, or at least high, inflation coming? If you do, what makes you say the run in most commodities is over? Inflation is generally a long term painful thing. Why would the commodity increases be over or almost over, when the CPI hasn't even begun to really take off yet (sure, based on "tricks" by the Fed probably in large part, but still)?
I just don't see how we cannot have long-term high, if not chronic, inflation if the money printing continues as it has been, and so far there is no end in sight.
Obviously, my view is based on a "fundamental" approach, maybe you are coming at it from a pure technical approach.
Thanks again, and sorry again for hijacking your thread!
Bro, HTF did you call this with NQs at 13650?! 1% higher? Wow... balls of steel! STEEL!
Haha. I’m pushing short there, flipping my long.
OK, cool. Hope ur right.
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