The ten games winning streak came to a bloody conclusion as I was blown out of the water right off the open. The pain almost paralyzed me as I couldn't believe how hard I was hit in such a short period of time, the damage was amplified as I was on a mission to up my size just a little this week. At 10:30AM, I was shooting 4 of 16 and down almost $2K. I fought back, inch by inch, dollar by dollar, and when it was all said and done I was able to cut the damage in half in what was the highest number of stocks/shares I have ever traded in a game. 39000 shares each way on 12 of 29 shooting, -69 before commissions, -1015 after, 1 bullet. The sequence of the events today will be in my memory for a long time, I really didn't think I was capable of being blown out so fast and so hard after all those wins, but in a single loss like this I really learned more than I ever did during the winning streak and got my head checked once again. Pre-Market: Felt just like any other day, a bunch of bank downgrades but some retail upgrades. Grabbed a morning muffin and it sure tasted like rock when I bite into it around lunch time, traded all day long and did not go eat until the market was closed. 9:30: I don't normally play energy right off the open, but last a few days they have been tanking off it so I saw a size open print on DO, and I bulleted 700 shares, I was filled at the precise bottom of that move at 26 and two prints later it hit 26.30 with the offer at 26.42. I wanted to wait a little and see what happens, as it was hardly a size print and I thought he was playing games, next print, boom, 26.75, and I covered there. Throw in the bullet cost, a $600 loss to open up the day. I ended up trading 10000 shares in him each way, and ended up making $5 on him after commissions, unfortunately, I did not slow down the tempo of the game after that big hit like I normally would, and the subsequent trades really got out of hand. So whole DO was actually a winner when it is all said and done, it was the nail on my coffin today. Natural shorted some CRA on futures gap down, again, extremely uncharacteristic, I have been very reluctant to trade the short side given the strength of the market, and I lost 20 cents there, when the specialist fills you on a natural short this early in the game, it is usually a bad sign. When DO squeezed I thought gas would rebound too like the oils, and I took APA and APC, lost 10 cents on APC and 5 cents on APA. Way too aggressive there, any time you take a big hit, slow down the tempo of the game immediately, take a few small scalps here and there and wait for a clear shot. Just like that, I was down $900, no winner, all loser. 9:45: Futures rebounding, went long FMC/APD on CEX strength, took some DNA on BTK rebound, I knew the consumer confidence number will be out today at 10AM, but that hit in DO paralyzed my brain, and by the time M said "Oh consumer confidence number will come out soon", I already saw a big red bar in my face. 10:00: Uncharacteristic, totally uncharacteristic, futures just tanked, I bailed market on FMC for a 3 cents loss, bailed on APD for a 5 cents loss, and I held one of the most volatile stocks on NYSE, DNA, to see "what will he do?". After all, I got in at 57.65, and I had more than enough prints to get out for a quarter loss, but I had 500 shares and I decided to take a chance, unwilling to take a quarter loss. I thought that dip on futures was a buying opportunity, as the market has been super strong, I thought it was an overreaction. But the market has been so overbought and people are looking for excuses to sell it, and if I am going to hold on to something, hold something slow, don't be the one holding a serious hot potato. 10:10: The fatal mistake, I went long TYC at 58.71 expecting a bounce as he was hitting the offer with size, same with MMM, went long at 115.75 expecting a squeeze, and worst of all, DNA just spreaded half a point on me, "he is going to squeeze", I doubled my position into 1000 shares. This works in a strong market, when the market is trending up, and the stock tanks half a point for no reason, buy and you usually get a nice pop. But for a fast mover like DNA, when the futures is coming in like that, when you are already down more than 1K on the day, what was I smoking? And I watched the stock hitting 56.50 as I watched my P&L dip to a deficit $1500, a little bounce, he hit 56.20, ouch, I may as well give him the figure as I put in a hard stop on everything at 56, futures started to squeeze, and I got out on half at 56.81, the other half at 56.50. I got out of TYC for a dime loss, out of MMM for a 30 cents loss. The point is, if you are going to play a bounce scalp, go for something that is extremely liquid, so if you are wrong, you don't take the extra spread damage. I really don't think it was a loss of discipline that I averaged down to a loser trade, it was simply because DNA has been my number four best stock of all time, and I feel confident trading him, I think I know his tape tricks and I really thought I would have bought 57 and sold everything at 57.25. The problem was that I was looking at a huge deficit, and the pain paralyzed my brain, and I just could not afford such a big big deficit. Let's just say, it is fortunate that I did not lose multiple points on DNA with a full 1000 share position, because at the moment I was stunned, and I was vulnerable to the "how much lower can it go before an inevitable squeeze" syndrome. Why did I sell market APD/FMC, two much less damaging stocks first when I could have dumped DNA for a 15 cents loss, I did have the right instinct to get out first ask questions later, this is the question I will ask myself all night, why didn't I get out of DNA, the kind of stock that can really ruin your day? 10:26: I was seriously having a flash back of my all time worst game ever ($4K deficit, which started out the exact same way, I was trying to up my size a little bit, ambushed off the open, caught off guard and saw a $2K deficit before I could say ouch, I cut it down to as little as $500 and then just a total collapse from there). I knew had I traded on, I could have possibly ruined my month, but I also told myself that it has been more than 6 months since I took that brutal hit, and I have matured and developed as a trader. What happened was a diaster trade, it was my fault, but amplified by the sequence of events (it hurts just too much to take a big hit, a small pause and then an even bigger hit). I talked to myself for five minutes and I saw an energy pop. Took some NBL and made 40 cents. Almost loaded up the boat with SGY, CVX, DO, KMG, as I gradually pared into stuff, unfortunately, while the energy ran hard today, it wasn't a smooth ride up (like I desperately needed it), basically, anytime there is a breakout you should pareout, and wait for a dip then you buy it. I tried to pyramid into breakout's, and it just didn't work. Left a tons of cash on the table with every energy I touched, and I got out of everything as my confidence was just not there anymore after the brutal hits. My priority was to not lose anymore money, so whenever I had a chance to take a little off the table I did. A look at the score, I was down $1650 after what seemed to be a decent energy pop. Yes, I did make a few hundred dollars and on any other day it would have felt like some half decent trades, but on a day like today, it felt like I didn't even put a dent into that big deficit. 11:01: HI had a little consolidation, took some natural shorts and lost 20 cents immediately. That trade was called desperation, as my only savior, energy rally couldn't help me to make a serious comeback, and I had to find something else, and I was hit again. 11:11: Second leg on energy, tried NE, EPG, SGY again, got out of SGY way too early, as I never truly believed in my calls after the brutal open, at least I made 20 cents there, out of NE for flat, churned a lot of EPG today as he was choppy and ended up flat before commissions but lost quite a bit with commissions. Tried MMC and XL on IUX breakout, MMC was incredibly choppy and hit me for 10-20 cents on more than one occassion, but XL I was able to pull 35 cents off. Churned more DO, took some AVP on M's call who was also down big, lost 15 cents there as the RLX rebound didn't happen. A look on the P&L, it is 12PM, and I was still down $1750, a dreadful, doomed feeling. 12:00: BTK going up, CRA had a nice base took some for a quick 20 cents scalp, no volume but he moved up another half a point anyway. Churned more DO. This is the biggest problem when you are down big: small scalps won't put serious dent into that deficit, you need big winners, but to get big winners you need to use wider stops and bigger size, and you can really really get smoked even more as your psychology already bottomed out. Tried some FRX and took another 15 cents hit. The good thing about a big deficit, when you take a $75 loss, it felt numb . . . 1:00: Scalped more DO, it started to eat into me that now I am only down $200 in him and it was the stock that killed my entire open game, FRX bottomed out near yesterday's low, got a quarter scalp. Tried DNA long again, ouch, lost another quarter. I really wish I bought him back when futures made that run to 10K.
1:12: Thankfully, futures made a run for 10K which was my saving grace. Chunred more DO and EPG but took AGE at 44 on what I thought to be a broker bottom, took HD at 43.50 on what I thought was a RLX rebound, and futures started to go up even more, took STM at 34.86, no reason for a semi to be down when the SOX is up 3%, took GS on a pullback at 90.30, MMM at 116.45. Finally, I was on the right side of the market, and finally, I was making real progress, but again, I was a tick too slow on execution, as Mrs D said "oh we are close to 10K", my P&L was just down $850 at the time, and I immediately put in tight stops for everything (should have just sold market, no way we could have broke 10K first move up before 2PM. I knew I could got back in if the market did break 10K, but the fact that I used super tight stops at BID instead of market sell orders really hurted, for after the BID is hit, every stock spreaded me 10-15 cents, and when the smoke cleared, I was down $1100. 2:15: It really hurted that the only bullet I had was DO, and I did not want to put anymore up, market tanked hard as the bulls gave up, would have been almost as good an opportunity on the short side. Scalped some more DO, I was finally up on him after commissions. Tried to play the final squeeze on GE/IBM/WMT/HD/NSM/ADI with mixed success and only made a few dollars after commissions. This third loss in November put me at $5500 for the month, and basically killed my chance to make this a better month than October. I was serious thinking about how much I can beat my estimate of 70K by last night, given that I was just 6K away. Now, I sure hope this doesn't trigger a losing streak. I am not asking for much next three games, I just want to make up today's loss next three games so I start December with a clean, healthy mindset. Ashamed of my disastrous open performance, hope I don't repeat those mistakes again. But I thank the goddess in my life that I did keep my composure, this could have been the month breaker had I churned myself further into the abyss.
My 14th day at Worldco was a breakthrough day. Everything i did went right and i managed to hold on to my winners. I made 3500 gross, 3100 after commissions. This scored 14th of the firms top 30 list for the day. An amazing game considering i only had 600 share positions. I caught the bottom on ASW and held it for $2.70. I grinded on the oils all day and made some there. Caught the DYN breakout above 40 in the middle of day. Luckily i found my self short 3 positions when systems went down and the market started its afternoon free fall. Today was a lucky day. I hope it wasn't all luck and that my systems can continue to be profitable. Consistency is the key to this game. One big day means nothing. To date i've had 8 positive games and 6 negative. For the month I'm up 6k gross, 3k net.
In a game that I had to win to avoid my first back to back loss since the end of September, I opened with 1 for 9 shooting. While I did a good job minimizing the damage, I could not get that one big shot to turn the tide. 28400 shares on 6 of 17 shooting, +566 before commissions, -253 after, 3 bullets. Yesterday's morning trades were a direct result of over confidence and lazy defense, hence I kept myself super tight today, the result was a ugly ugly game, as while the market came in, it did so in a very choppy fashion with many squeezes along the way. I really had a few good looks but just could not finish. This is a real skid and I absolutely must put an end to it tommorrow. An insider joke to show how shallow some of the traders at our firm can be, Mrs D, while she has an excellent tape/basket trading game, was talking to a member in her group about ENE. She saw the big sell-off on ENE and asked one of her traders "oh check the earning on ENE, maybe it is a good bottompick". I thought it was a little strange until I realized that she hasn't even heard of the merger! Not a good example of a group leader as many people who don't trade stocks know about it, and it has been on CNBC for many weeks. Pre-Market: We bounced off the dreaded 10K resistance twice in a row, so I decided to give bullets a shot. No real news except of course the dreaded ENE/DYN merger. This is a classic example of diverging oil and gas indexes, but in reality there weren't a tons of sellers at all in gas stocks because it was almost all ENE. 9:30: Bulleted CRA and covered immediately when I saw a big uptick on Nasdaq futures, the hardest game to play is the game after a big blownout, stock went down 30 cents and I tried to short again, squeezed and churned and lost a little more than $200 in him after commissions. And psychologically it just changed everything as after a brutal squeeze he tanked hard and I didn't touch him again. Same with EMR, although I actually scalped the bullet cost out, but he was just too choppy. Bulleted HP and covered on the first uptick of OSX, churned a lot, as the sector was choppy before the 2PM announcement. Wish I did EPG/KMI instead as they went down hard in sympathy of ENE/DYN. Tried to play SGY and HP on a flip to the long side and it just didn't work as the index quickly came back in. The fills were brutal, as the specialist really pulled the carpet from underneath my feet today and made me take 15-20 cents losses when the BID was a nickel away just half a second ago. 10:12: Took DNA at 55.75 as BTK was rebounding, LXK at 50.15, EMR at 53.09, IRF at 34.63, futures was ripping hard and I was able to cut a $600 deficit down to $150 after I got out of all of my positions. Took 40 cents out of LXK, 30 cents out of DNA, 20 cents out of EMR, but IRF I pyramided when he printed higher as SOX reversed and I really thought I was golden. He came back in and I lost money tried to go long again, as the futures could not make another leg higher, and everything came in. I was down $400 again. 11:05: Churned a tons of GE today, as he did not bounce off 40 as I anticipated, and I kept on trying to pick his bottom when I should have went aggressively short. Tried CMA/TBH on bottompicks too and they didn't work, out quickly for flat. Churned a tons of TYC and GE during the dead zone, basically buying support and selling resistance, it actually worked as I was able to recover the losses I took in GE earlier on two failed bottom pick attempts. 1:15: Lone solid trade of the day, DYN/ENE halted and I saw a big print on EPG at 45.10, and the print held, took it long for 40 cents move. 2:00: Energy news just came out, SLB tanked half a point and I sold HP at 28, SLB squeezed all the way back and I covered HP immediately for a dime profit and it fell 40 cents more without an uptick, that was the trade that would have put me back in the game. Churned a lot of BJS, EPG, and out for flat on both, tried NSM/GE long when futures came in and lost a dime a piece. It was incredibly frustrating as whenever I go short the futures will squeeze and I have to cover and pay the spread damage, and whenever I go long the futures will come in. 3:20: Churned TYC/HON/GE/SGY/CCU, make a dime or two here, lose a dime or two there, plain frustration, I thought there will be a squeeze into the close but market tanked and I just tapped out. I am out of sync with the market this week, down almost $800 with two games left, if I can finish the week in the black I will be very happy, but right now, the priority is to stop bleeding. Today's game was a lot tougher than yesterday's, and I really really shouldn't have got blown out yesterday, which was a very very winnable game. This is why you need to be on a winning streak to just roll right through tough games like today, my momentum came to a halt after the blown out, and I need to rebuild it as soon as possible to finish the year strong. Silk: Now that, is the most money I have ever seen anyone made with a 600 share dot limit since April. Plain unbelievable, as you saw yourself, with 600 shares you beat all but 13 traders in a firm of 500, that include people who trade 5000 share positions regulary. Please excuse me for not using you as a benchmark (I think doing so will bring me nothing except frustration lol), those 3 year's worth of experience from Nasdaq is no fluke, as anyone who has been trading full time for that long obviously know what they are doing. BTW, I wonder what was the reason that you switched to NYSE? That said, all is fair game if I am still trading 2 years from now . What you accomplished was nothing short of a miracle. Congratulations, it won't take long for you to reach the upper tier of this firm if you can keep this up. (Oh yeah, don't forget to request something, you will get it if you just made top 14 with 600 shares)
Hitman, just out of curiosity what is the average age of traders at Worldco? It seems with all the talk of girlfriends and going out to drink at the end of the day that the average age would be in the twenties.
Mit, Its perfectly possible to be 60, have many galfriends (some in their 20s) and go out drinking every nite... fun isn't only restricted to the youngsters! Candle
For me, the market has been extremely unpredictable last a few games. We know the market wants to give back some of the gains, but the bulls would not give up any easy ground, so whenever you are bulleting stuff you have to be on the edge of your seat for these big squeezes that come out of nowhere. Fortunately I was able to stop the bleeding at least temporarily, an ugly win is a win and it is a start to find a temporary bottom on my P&L and hopefully finish this week in the black, and start a new winning streak. 18800 shares on 9 of 19 shooting, +707 before commissions, +220 after, 1 bullet. Like yesterday, it was a lot of churning, unlike yesterday, I was able to get into the black earlier in the game and stayed there. Pre-Market: Airline upgrades, but it didn't work. 9:30: Stupid trade, futures gapped up and I took a little CCU off the open print, futures came in and I lost 10 cents for nothing. Bulleted DO at 26.95 but for some reason what was a big offer got hit hard and I covered most in panic. Stock came in half a point pretty smoothly, talk about the "getting-smoked-syndrome", the damage I took in DO on Tuesday still haunts me. Churned a lot of him today as the oil index did a lot of swings. Tried to pick up RIG on oil bounce, and lost a quarter fast. Churned some more DO until I realized it is probably not going down, took some WFT and flipped DO at literally the bottom but didn't trust the strength of the move. Did get half a point on WFT and left a lot on the table, just a quarter on DO which was pathetic. Went long in some SGY for another quarter point. And I was in the black for the first time since Monday's game. 10:17: Now this is just absurd, SPX broke the low and was tanking hard, everything looked like crap and futures squeezed for a big green bar, a lot of people probably short it was a squeeze as it seemed like it will fade away, but boom, another big green candle in the face. Fortunately I wasn't short anything but I already got out of my oil longs as I thought the market was really weak. Took some DNA on BTK reversal at 55.35, as it came back in I thought he was weak and I got out half, but boom, he printed 55.15 on my market sell, plain high way robbery as it turned out that was the low and he blew all stops there, and never looked back. In the mean time, I saw ENE/DYN rallying and I took some EPG, stopped out for a 10 cents loss first try but made back half a point on my second try. Took some APC near 52 and scored 40 cents, tried again on the way down and churned. 11:07: OSX pulled back, thought HAL/SLB had another leg, bought some and stopped out for 5-10 cents loss a piece. Made use of my DO bullet for a 20 cents scalp, but on my second try when I thought the OSX would tap out, it made a huge squeeze and I could not jump back into the long side in time. Only tried EOG and broke even. There are some serious divergence between OSX and XNG mostly because of the ENE/DYN situation. Time to take a break, whew, last two games I couldn't afford such luxuries. 1:46: Choppy market, churned TOL, DOX, SGY, TYC (no range today), had CRA at 27.80 (what an awesome pick up there, too bad the market rallied after I got out), even tried super lagger BOW. All churning. DYN is a dastardly specialist and I had fun trading 100 share slots, almost like a casino with the way he printed. 3:30: Normally, at 3:20 if nothing seems to be going on, I tap out. But where did that 80 points rally on DJI came from? It was not an easy rally to play at all as a lot of the stocks that were strong earlier in the day (brokers for example) didn't move. And oil did move but I missed it. Scored a quarter point on EMR. That rally really caught me off guard as I did not capitalize, especially with the way technology and financials hit new high's I should have been better prepared. I sure hope the Dow breaks 10K and Nasdaq 2000 before the year is over to set up a great year for 2002, that will make the life much much easier for all of us, investors and traders alike.