Nov Shameless Self Promoting Guru Journal

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Brandonf, Nov 1, 2002.

  1. Neil

    Neil

    I agree with that easy.. was a shame allen gave up his thread its always interesting to read journals from people who actually do trade.. and also who can't keep quiet! Thats the only reason I visit chat rooms too.. to listen that is.. I camenbert it to listen to cnbc for too long. Trading rooms on paltalk are good for that too, like woodies, they just keep jabbering away non stop, good background noise for me..

    So I hope you persevere brandon, often read your threads with interest.. can't understand whats the point of being bitchy at people who make money with trading rooms posting here, there is such a high level of drivel spouted here that its a relief to read stuff from guys and gals who have managed to make money from the market any way for more than a couple of weeks..

    Neil
     
    #21     Nov 2, 2002
  2. Brandonf

    Brandonf ET Sponsor

    The day started off fairly slow. We had a large (30 point) gap to start the day. Generally speaking large gaps will hold, however after a period of expanded volatility such as we have seen the last several days it becomes a toss up. In any event, I was pretty much prepaired for a gap and nap. My plan was to watch things and should we break above the hourly highs I would look for some sort of buying opportunity, but such as things are I ended up making all of my money on the short side today. Realtick has been having a ton of connections issues as of late, and for the first few hours of the day I could not have stayed connected to save my life.

    Trades:
    Long ES @921.75 (10:34) with average exit at 921.75 (-0.50)
    Long ES @923.25 (11:27) with average exit at 924.5 (+1.25)
    NQ Short @ 1066.5 (12:26) on a first thrust down pattern (1 minute chart). Average exit was 1063.5 wich was near the target of 1062.5, but the market started to turn so got out before targets. (+3)
    Dow Futs Short @8666 (1:50) with exits at 8628. This was also a first thrust retracment pattern, this time on the five minute chart. Profits were taken as volume started to come into the futures strongly and it looked like the circus had come to town.

    Ultimatly it ended up that my last trade justified waking up today, which can sometimes happen...though not that often for me as the Gaps usually provide me with my bread and butter.

    Ending Results
    ES +0.75
    NQ +3
    ES +38

    Total Gain (after commissions on 1 lot) $263.50.

    Margin Requirement (per 1 lot) according to business plan: $10K

    Days return 2.6%
    Months: 2.1% ($209.50)


    Brandon
     
    #22     Nov 4, 2002
  3. Brandonf

    Brandonf ET Sponsor

    Here is a gif of the Nasdaq first thrust trade.

    Brandon
     
    #23     Nov 4, 2002
  4. Brandonf

    Brandonf ET Sponsor

    Here is the same pattern on the five minute YM. Its one of the most accurate patterns you can trade, and generally gives you between $0.80 and $1.30 for every $1 you risk.

    Brandon
     
    #24     Nov 4, 2002
  5. Brandonf

    Brandonf ET Sponsor

    I have a doctors apt to go to and a few other things to do today, so Im probably going to be calling it a day. I have had two trades today, both of them in the NQ.

    The started off with a small gap, my favorite way to begin any day because that is were I feel I truely have an edge above and beyond anyone else in the market.

    Trades.

    Long NQ @ 1037.5 (open) and closed avg. of 1042. (+4.5)This was the trade based upon the gap. I will post a discussion and chart of that at the end of this post.

    Long NQ [Scalp] @ 1039 (8:39) and closed at 1041.5 (8:42). (+2.5)

    Not a bad day at all for only putting in an hour at the office I think. The gap made my day.

    Nov 5th Ending Result
    NQ +7

    Total Gain (after commissions on 1 lot ($6.00): $134

    Personal Margin Requirement per 1 lot: $10K

    Days Return: 1.34%
    Months Return: $343.50 (3.44% after 3 days)
    Montly Goals 7.5% to 12.5% (90 to 150% per year coz I do not compound))

    Brandon
     
    #25     Nov 5, 2002
  6. Brandonf

    Brandonf ET Sponsor

    The following is a discussion log about todays gap. The profit in it today was fairly small (it was at the low end of what I will generally take a trade in) but never the less the consistency of the trade is such that I can't pass it up.

    [08:53] <brandon> lets look at gaps in general
    [08:53] <brandon> the average gap is about 1.2%
    [08:53] <brandon> This is in either direction.
    [08:53] <brandon> 71% of gaps will fill in on they day they occur
    [08:54] <brandon> gaps that are twice as large as the average gap the odds of it filling are less then 50/50
    [08:54] <brandon> and the smaller a gap is compared to average
    [08:54] <brandon> the greater the chance of a 100% filling of that gap
    [08:55] <brandon> you with me so far?
    [08:55] <brandon> ok
    [08:55] <brandon> lets talk about specific entry
    [08:55] <brandon> lets say today we gap 1.1%
    [08:55] <brandon> this is about average
    [08:55] <brandon> typical
    [08:56] <brandon> at least 71% of gaps fill, and average gaps and smaller fill even more
    [08:56] <brandon> now, knowing that its 1.1%
    [08:56] <brandon> and it has at least a 71% chance of filling in
    [08:57] <brandon> what is the most prudent thing to be looking for?
    [08:57] <brandon> we would want to fade this gap then
    [08:58] <brandon> as it has at least a 71% chance of being filled
    [08:58] <brandon> now you dont want to just enter because
    [08:58] <brandon> this is stupid
    [08:58] <brandon> that 71% odds of filling only tells you one thing
    [08:58] <brandon> that it has a 71% chance of filling
    [08:58] <brandon> it doesnt tell you how far it might go against you first
    [08:59] <brandon> so this means that sometimes you will probably pass up on a 1.1% gap as a discretionary trader
    [08:59] <brandon> but what you want to do
    [08:59] <brandon> is look at what is my opening price
    [08:59] <brandon> ok
    [08:59] <brandon> lets look at yesterdays trade
    [08:59] <brandon> what kind of support do I have here
    [08:59] <brandon> lets look at GLOBEX
    [08:59] <brandon> what kind of support do I have here
    [08:59] <brandon> does it justify taking the trade
    [08:59] <brandon> now
    [09:00] <brandon> in the case of todays trade
    [09:00] <brandon> we had all kinds of support from near yesterdays lows
    [09:00] <brandon> that was 1 area
    [09:00] <brandon> next we had the 120m 20ema
    [09:00] <brandon> this is always a huge area of support
    [09:00] <brandon> anytime something opens on or near it
    [09:00] <brandon> its probably going to bounce
    [09:01] <brandon> so now we have good support
    [09:01] <brandon> we also had the GLOBEX lows in at 1034.5
    [09:01] <brandon> which was relatively close
    [09:01] <brandon> GLOBEX lows almost always hold the first time at least
    [09:02] <brandon> so even in a worst case
    [09:02] <brandon> we would have gotten a bounce back
    [09:02] <brandon> and probably gotten out near breakeven
    [09:02] <brandon> so
    [09:02] <brandon> as you look at our situation
    [09:02] <brandon> it starts to make sense to take the trade
    [09:02] <brandon> make sense?
    [09:02] <brandon> rollig over
    [09:03] <brandon> does anyone have any questions?
    [09:03] <brandon> this is as I said my number one edge
    [09:03] <brandon> if I was forced to trade with only one thing
    [09:03] <brandon> it would be this for sure

    Brandon
     
    #26     Nov 5, 2002
  7. Magna

    Magna Administrator

    Brandon,

    Congrats on your gap play today. All polls aside, and with the understanding that, unlike you, the rest of us always have purely selfless motives, I appreciate you taking the time to post. Sorry for the heat, but that's ET. :cool:
     
    #27     Nov 5, 2002
  8. Brandon,

    Enjoying the journal, keep it coming!
     
    #28     Nov 5, 2002
  9. Brandon,

    When you calculate your opening gap for NQ/ES, do you use closing price at 16:00 or 16:15?

    Thanks a lot
     
    #29     Nov 5, 2002
  10. Keep writing.

    I still think about your green tea and emerald[or jade] moves.:cool: Just bought some more green tea.

    -----------------------------------

    Don't see many green tree frogs in November; however I don't look for many of them. I Look more on NYSE,NASDAQQQ .:cool:
     
    #30     Nov 5, 2002