Nov Shameless Self Promoting Guru Journal

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Brandonf, Nov 1, 2002.

  1. Monee:

    First, a quick comment on limit orders. Yes, I always use limit orders...but I don't mean to imply that I put an order in away from the market, then walk away from the screen.

    Let's say the trend is up. I like to buy reactions against that trend. So the ES is moving down, and the selling starts to get a little carried away, and for one reason or another I believe that I should buy, I enter my order. Usually I enter the order close to where it's trading...but I may enter on the bid side of the quote, or perhaps just under a low if we're near one...something like that. I'm not placing order way away from the market....I don't enter an order until I see something that makes me want to buy or sell.

    As it pertains to discipline, we all have our lapses. I still have them even after all these years....I think it's human! LOL. But I've gotten better over the years than I was at one time.

    As crazy as it probably sounds, one of the things that was a big help to me was learning how to meditate. I learned a little on how to quiet my mind....perhaps a little about how to stand outside myself and observe myself.

    At one time I did what you have mentioned...I walked away from the screen. But I really in the end didn't like that way very well...I mean there might be something that comes up.

    So instead, eventually I had to grasp both intellectually and emotionally that the route to bigger money was to sit. That the market was a little like a bucking bronco....it would do everything within it's power to get you out, make you believe the move was ending. And your job was to sit, observe, observe the market, observe your own reaction to the market.

    Observing yourself creates some perspective....you might think, there I go again, being fearful that I'm going to lose....I wonder why I still feel that sense of scarcity. There I go again, wanting to jump out just because it went up, just because everyone is now buying what I own. Last time I felt this sense of impatience I left a whole lot of money on the table.

    It's all a psychological game I guess is what I'm saying. Meditation has helped me quiet my mind, become more focused, allowed me to watch myself instead of reacting quite so quickly.

    It also helps if you're trading in alignment with the underlying trend...because the trend is a silent ally...it helps you. And I know that you know that because you don't make 20 points usually without being with the trend. If you're with the trend, it takes a while to reverse...it doesn't reverse on a dime....react, yes...reverse, no.

    But just know that maintaining emotional discipline is a big part of the game...that you're human, so you'll probably screw it up at times...I do. But it gets better with time. Try meditation. I originally learned from a book called the "3 Minute Meditator" or something like that. Simple book, with lots of techniques.

    OldTrader
     
    #91     Nov 9, 2002
  2. Magna:

    You're exactly right....$100K per year for most people is quite livable in most areas of the country.

    But without wish to be argumentative, how many people do you really believe are making 3 points per day? I've read various journals here since I registered with the site, and at least in terms of the journal keepers I'm not seeing it. Even in this journal by Brandonf, so far at least he doesn't appear to be averaging 3 points per day...and as I understand it he's an expert.

    You know, when I used to trade on the floor we used to have new guys show up who would say, "I only need to make $500 per day". Easy enough right? Trade X number of contracts for X number of points. Funny though...most of those guys didn't make it. In fact, the floor is a notoriously tough arena to succeed in, they carry them out all the time. Most floor traders by the way are scalpers, only they have more speed, and better order knowledge than you do.

    Everyone doesn't trade the same...I know that. And if someone is successfully trading for 3 points a day then why should he change just because I have a different belief?

    But just to show you the difference: I would rather trade one contract for 10-20 points, than 3 contracts for 3 points. My belief is that I'm taking less risk than you are. Your risk may be carefully defined in terms of points...perhaps set by ATR or some other factor. But I maintain that your TRUE risk is one that you may just get chopped up by the market noise, commission, and slippage over time. There's the real risk in my eyes.

    But I will also agree with you that nothing is black and white...and therefore to the extent that a guy can do what you say successfully means he doesn't have to change it. On the other hand, I wouldn't go so far as to assume that a Soros or Dennis traded for bigger moves because of size. In fact, Dennis chose to leave the floor, and changed his method of trading. It may be that they felt that sitting for a period with a position made more sense than scalping.

    Doesn't sound like any of this is going to be resolved though any time soon.

    OldTrader
     
    #92     Nov 9, 2002
  3. Greco

    Greco

    Right, Mr. OldTrader... Anyway you can't do scalping with a billion dollars in the small picture.
     
    #93     Nov 9, 2002
  4. dottom

    dottom

    ET Journals are both limited and poor sample from which to draw conclusions.

    Walk into any prop firm and ask who their top 20 traders are this year. Ask who their top 20 traders were last year and the year before. Ask how many of these top traders have consistently made money year after year. Ask how many of them trade on short-time frames. Ask how many of them use stops in the 1-2x ATR range (i.e. 15-40c on most stocks). Ask how many of them have had >80% days profitable with winning days averaging much more than losing days. Ask how much money they are making.

    It's not easy, and the 90/10 rule applies, but the point is it can be done, it can be done consistently, it has been proven to work for many traders (not just a select few), and it's a nice way to make a living to boot.

    You need to talk about risk/reward and overall return-on-risk when you throw out numbers like that.

    I would rather trade 3 contracts for 3 points at a 1:1 risk/reward and 70% win rate; than trade 1 contract for 10-20 points at 2:1 risk/reward and a 40% win rate. Smoother equity curve, greater sharpe ratio, smaller drawdowns, more winning days, fewer losing days, smaller magnitude on losing days.

    To each his own...
     
    #94     Nov 9, 2002
  5. Greco

    Greco

    Sure enough this won't be resolved anytime soon. :)
     
    #95     Nov 9, 2002
  6. As I have alluded to in other threads, the long run expectancy of longer trades and scalping can be the same (i.e. a higher probability of a win with a scalp with a lower absolute gain can be equivalent to a lower probability of a larger target)...

    ... as I have maintained previously, and continue to assert, the appropriate trading style is a function of the individual trader's personality (comfort level, risk tolerance, ability to hold versus desire to ring the cash register etc etc)...

    ... neither Oldtrader the Trend Trader or any of the scalpers are correct in the absolute sense, since there are no absolutes...

    ... if the trend traders and the scalpers are consistently successful in their trading, they are individually correct in aligning a trading style with their trading personalities...

    ... the key issue revolves around such a personality alignment (since beliefs are a function of personality traits, and beliefs are central to the trading process) and NOT around whether various equivalent long-run expectancy styles are "superior" when compared to eachother...

    To conclude, there can be no resolution of this debate at the absolute level... there can only be a resolution at the level of the individual trader...
     
    #96     Nov 9, 2002
  7. dbphoenix

    dbphoenix

    If you have no desire to convert anybody, then what are you doing on this particular thread? All you've managed to do at this point is take Brandon's journal away from him.

    Whether I or you or anybody else agrees with what he does is beside the point. He's willing to put it out there, as are most of the people keeping journals. You're not. Your only reason for being here is to tell him that he's doing it all wrong.

    --Db
     
    #97     Nov 9, 2002
  8. Can't you read? I'm here adding my opinion, answering questions, and getting my balls busted by you. By the way, did you miss my question? Who is this brandonf that you claim is a market wizard?

    As you were....

    OldTrader
     
    #98     Nov 9, 2002
  9. Intelligent observation.

    OldTrader
     
    #99     Nov 9, 2002
  10. dbphoenix

    dbphoenix

    So you have no idea who's journal you're posting to. Sort of like wanting to travel to Chicago and finding yourself on the wrong plane . . .

    --Db
     
    #100     Nov 9, 2002