Nouriel Roubini: "bear market sucker's rally", China in serious trouble

Discussion in 'Trading' started by mccd, Nov 4, 2008.

  1. mccd


    Nouriel Roubini has a new post up today focussing on the troubles in China. re: his bear market sucker's rally call I have to agree. The outlook is terrible, and the unprecedentedly bad news keeps rolling in. When the bear case is based on constantly deteriorating fundamentals, and the bull case is based on nothing more than "stocks are cheap" (classic sucker's rally rationale - no good news to back it up) I can't see it holding.

    here's a part of his article. what do you guys think?

    "For the last few years the global economy has been running on two engines, the U.S. on the consumption side and China on the production side, both lifting the entire global economy. The U.S. has been the consumer of first and last resort spending more than its income and running large current account deficits while China (and other emerging market economies) has been the producer of first and last resort, spending less than its income and running ever larger current account surpluses.

    For the last few months the first engine of global growth has effectively shut down as the latest batch of macro news from the U.S. are worse than awful: collapsing consumption and consumer confidence, plunging housing, collapsing auto sales, plunging durable goods spending (while supply side indicators such as production, ISM and employment are also free falling). The U.S. is entering its worst consumer recession in decades both supply and demand data look worse than in the severe recessions of 1974-75 and 1980-82. And in due time this tsunami of awful macro news, together with ugly downside surprises to earnings will take another toll on equity valuations that are now temporarily lifted by another bear market sucker’s rally."