Notional Recession

Discussion in 'Trading' started by Avid_Consumer, Feb 7, 2007.

  1. What do people feel the general odds are that we may not see a recessionary price drop in the US indices, now or any time soon?

    Priced in eur, gbp, particularly gold, etc the US indices have been in a prolonged and fairly dismal looking real recession for a few years ... you can see this for example by charting a ratio spread of the dow to gold.

    is it possible that due to accelerating monetary expansion exceeding 10% a year that the Fed may actually disguise the recession in notional terms until the next expansionary phase?

    is this what bush meant by an 'ownership society', basically intending to accelerate devaluation of the dollar and artificially boost the prices of anything priced in dollars?
  2. i've seen a handful of anecdotal explanations of chronic and hyperinflations stating that they've historically always been a one-way street. with money supply growth over 10% a year we already technically qualify as exhibiting chronic inflation

    Could the Fed reverse this administration's accelerative course assuming they wanted to, without blowing up the leveraged fin services industry and/or the economy? the one-way progression of chronic inflation seems to suggest that once chronic inflation dominates fiscal balance and real growth, hyperinflation is a foregone conclusion, particularly in a climate of chronic/perpetual war

    it seems like the monetary and regulatory policy of the last decade and especially the last few years in iraq have left us no wiggle room for the possibility of actually needing to conduct a real war (without an eventual hyperinflation)
  3. what's more certain than real war every few decades? it's not like we're going to see some kind of deflationary pax americana with a side of fiscal prudence from the current US political system
  4. duard


    Pretty clever, huh!?!
  5. Mvic


    The real magic trick has been to convince people that there has been no inflation.
  6. duard


    I calculated my portfolio appreciation over 4 years and it has been very good but the rub is the real movers were all hard assets---commodities.

    Had I pursued the carry trade borrowing the cheap money and leveraging the hard assets it would have been phenomenal.

    Live and learn.

    Or should I say print and inflate.
  7. bgp


    everything is fine, dont worry . uncle sam and the chinese will take good care of us.

  8. bgp


    they're our friends. they {chinese} are loaning us $$$$$. :)
  9. duard


    I feel better now.
  10. bgp


    #10     Feb 7, 2007