11793 alltime high in May 2008 and then down to well under 1000 in Nov of that same year was the crash. Chop back and forth since is just basically mirroring world economy.
Ship owners never turn down credit. They overbuilt "when times were good". Now supply (of ships) are up, demand (cargoes) are down = BDI down, down, down.
" the price of moving major raw materials by sea " My guess is the BDI number would be gradually losing its importance / relevance in the foreseeable future for various obvious factors, including oil substitution by renewable energy, vessel ownership (due to low cost manufacturing by S Korea) with producers/suppliers, cross continental rail transportation (being built by China), overstock of raw materials (in China), undersea/on-ground pipeline for oil and LPG, popularity of air shipments including internet shopping, etc.
Well at some point in the future China will work down the current raw material oversupply situation and will need large bulk carriers (100,000 tonners). No plane can even come close to matching that. And pipelines don't do bulk. As for low cost South Korea, they have been in the ship building biz for decades. Meanwhile the organized maritime industry has been around for centuries and there all kinds of ways to own/charter. Nothing new.
True, and I agree. However, it all depends on the world economy and the progress of building several new cross-continent rails and the two new canals by the China investment, besides pipelines. http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jan/20/-sp-nicaragua-canal-land-opportunity-fear-route http://thediplomat.com/2015/05/no-china-isnt-building-a-game-changing-canal-in-thailand-yet/ I still believe their impact on BDI in the future could be quite significant, once operational. We will see.
New canals are to accommodate the Largest bulk carriers. But in any case all those projects are based on economic need. If the need is not there, like presently, they will stay on drawing board. Once they are needed in the future so will large bulk carriers. Just like large airfreight carriers. Economy of scale wins out when you are talking millions of tons.