I just couldn't agree with you more. Indicators are derived from price so if you use indicators you are using the "dependent" variable to forecast the "independent" variable. It's like the tail wagging the dog. If you use a divergence all you are doing is finding a slow down in the movement of the price but you should already know that based on the price action.
Nobody expects that. What one needs to develop and accept is an approach where "approximately 50% of trades will be winners and will lead to overall success". Until one figures that out, trading is a Sisyphusian struggle.
You have rendered me speechless Joab. Just for the record I think that your statement "ALL trading is unreliable" is woolly thinking. The whole idea is to create a system that is both consistent and therefore reliable. Surely you have reached a point in your thinking whereby you are rolling up your trade outcomes in order to preserve your income reliability. regard f9
Hmmm....."Sisyphusian".....That's a new one. Wonder what that means?? A trader is a sissy until he becomes consistently profitable?? :>)
You DO NOT need to know what will happen next in order to make money as a trader. Em brass the unknown !
Yeah, I know... ETers have an aversion to words with more than one syllable. But it's nothing new at all. Google Sisyphus...
You must be another Sisyphusian struggle devotee Joab. Excellent example Gnome. If I told you that my next ´n´trades should produce a set of ratios consistent with the last ´n´trades and the last 3* n and 6*n trade outcomes, would that expand your thinking Joab, or would it leave you scratching your head for yet another defensible position. regards f9
Actually, Jack would be trying to swing at the ball with golf clubs tied to ropes and pulleys and counterweights and feathers and counter-counter weights and block&tackle and levers and a level and talcum powder and granite shoes with iron underwear and binoculars and GPS and radar guidance systems and gunsights and ... ... By the time he was setup, he would not be able to find the ball.
And austinp said as well: "You can see market turns on the DOM before you see the price prints on a chart." You will see a lot of b.s. on the dome, too. Learning to filter out reality from phantom orders is a mental lag that brings dome action to par with price bars. When a price bar closes on a chart, it has a ring of finality and decisive truth that no other indication can match. Said simply, reading price bars is like key ingredients to Ragu sauce... it's in there. Everything. No one needs to use indicators, but traders are certainly welcome to. No one needs to draw so many lines on a chart it'd give Stevie Wonder a headache at first glance. All of that extra effort is fine, but it's just extra effort in the end. While price tells the story on the T&S and that appears on price bars, there is more to price movement than just T&S. The above statements provide a very good lead in to "why" the DOM is so important. Googling DOM will provide more and from diverse people. Maybe someday people can get over their fight or flee orientation. The DOM is helpful for becoming comfortable in getting a fuller picture of how and why price moves at given times. All turns are shown on the DOM. All price changes that will happen in the very near term (within seconds) are shown on the DOM. Both of these things are important to eliminate fear while trading. It is possible a trade's feelings of fight or flee decision making come from fear. Probably fear of the unknown. Th OP has Spyder as a friend and so he is given the benefit of the doubt. He met spyder. Why not meet the DOM and see what doesn't show on price bars with respect to when price must turn and when price must change. It is a reading exercise. You read people when you meet them and then you give them the benefit of the doubt. Reading DOM to see turns is simple. Reading DOM to see upcoming price change is simple. There are other aids that come from the DOM: Knowing the range of range bound markets. Knowing market sentiment. Knowing a price move is going to continue, Knowing a price move will end in a tic or so. Knowing how fast the market is moving and why. Knowing what smart money is doing. And so much more. But you have to give what you read the benefit of the doubt to be able to try it out. Most people are very astute to not use anything I mention since they do not trust the source because the due dilligence they require has not been met. This is a good way for them to operate. They express the anger of hating which is part of the fight. Fighting is what they do to handle their fear of trusting and their fear of not having their dilligence complete by their standards. So they see the DOM "lieing" and only the price bar tells the "truth". They do not trust some things that they can't see and they feel that they have to operate in history when the bar is solid and finished. They sit through each forming bar not trusting it until it is done. What is before price action? A lot. Keep up the fear. Keep fighting. Dont flee from shouting and screaming at someone you don't trust like me. Obviously my seeing "me and the ball" as very humorous is just another threat that has to be fought and screamed at. A lousy analogy is a lousy analogy. The DOM is where you can watch the smart guys take the pants off all the small fighters and complainers who never get out of the trenches simply because they can't think as yet. I'm not going to participate in this thread further.