Australia & NZ are pretty interesting in that the population is very small but they do at least have industries beyond natural resources. Even Australia has a pretty good banking & even lately some good high tech companies. I believe the current fad in fintech of "buy now, pay later" started from Australia.
Australia's biggest export products by value in 2020 were iron, coal, petroleum gases, gold and aluminum. In aggregate, those major exports account for 63.1% of overall exports sales. Basically, Australia depends on natural resources export, and considering 42% goes to China, it depends on China too. Ironically, over 5% of its export value comes from water intensive meat and cereals. Not bad for a country keeping immigration down on the basis of not enough water to sustain a larger population.
Then Australia will do well in the future assuming they still have a good relationship with China. The US is a dying giant and I assume China will be the new hub of finance in the future probably in the 2030s. Canada is another country that is mainly a natural resources exporting economy and has a huge Chinese community in Vancouver.
Wishful thinking. China has a history of shooting itself in the foot but blaming others. By and large they collectively have a very immature attitude to foreigners when at home. However saying that, US has its own issues, it always has enemies which I think is the Christian influence of the Devil always creeping behind them.
I think that is historically accurate. I did some research on the North Asian economies and they all have a similar problem where they are very cloistered -- they simply don't like non domestic people. I remember in high school I had a Taiwanese friend and she hated everyone who wasn't from Taiwan (1986). I believe in order for China to really lead in GDP they would need a large cultural & political change. Japan couldn't do it but they had demographics issues amongst others.
Chinese are very ethnocentric and their education system reinforces it because until 1912 at the fall of the last dynasty they were pretty much ruled regionally, distrusted one another, spoke different dialects and their coast was under colonial control of various powers which also manipulated groups to their advantage. When the Nationalists fled to Taiwan, it was the priority of the communist party to unify the nation at all cost. Modern China is less than 80 years old. The communist party built a nation based on modern socialist concepts at a time of near feudal social and political structure. They imposed the Han language as the national language, imposed standardized education to build unity, whipped out the old structures of domination are replaced them with populist socialist domination. If we consider that China's modernization didn't begin before the 80's, from a mainly 3rd world rural population to what most recognize today as a modern urban society, we may be more forgiving of their lack of diplomatic sophistication.
Another real life example of my 200 families theory, although in this case it is probably fewer than 200... https://www.pri.org/stories/2021-10...-countrys-potential-pandora-investigator-says