Crypto as a proper financial system is still a dream. We may get there, but not for a while. Bitcoin is at best a quasi stock for this future financial system and at worst a tulip. We're not going to a world where the "government stops all printing and borrowing." We're going to a world where demand is slowing and investors who have over extended themselves will reassess their positions as they rotate into assets that produce cashflow. We are going to a world where money has real opportunity cost again. It'll be a bumpy ride for those who engaged in excessive speculation.
It's a fair and balanced view, but I just don't think we can. What you call excessive speculation is anyone who bought a house in the past 10 years. In Canada at least, when all these 5 year mortgages come up for renewal, they might not even qualify, never mind having to pay an extra 1k a month. For most people, so much wealth is tied up in your home. When that evaporates, you are essentially poor, if not homeless. I just don't see how we can get to a point where money has value without a depression.
those people are screwed. But I don’t think that’s the bubble now. I think the bubble is in speculative assets (commercial real estate, investment properties, pre-profit or pre-revenue companies, “growth equity”, private equity.) this is a richmans bubble.
I 100% disagree. The whole idea of trickle down economics was that if we make the rich even richer, some of that money will "trickle" down. I don't think this happened. But I firmly believe that if the rich start hurting, the poor will 100% feel it. I saw how May credit card balances were 2nd highest ever recorded, and March was first. The theory is that savings are gone and people are putting daily essentials on credit. This food, gas and housing inflation will finish them off. I wonder when Apple starts to see it with decreasing sales. The Fed is literally trying to destroy demand. If people actually stop spending, the job losses will be an even bigger problem than the 8% inflation. But I do agree that speculative assets like my crypto is getting a beating. But I do this the turnaround will happen this year. There is lots going on with forced selling by big players, but once that is done, I think the next bull will start, and Bitcoin will take a much bigger role in shaping the future.
I agree the poor and middle class will hurt substantially worse than the rich. I think your Bitcoin will trade like pre-revenue or pre-profit growth stock. When they rally, so will Bitcoin.
I'm honestly waiting for the public to realize the value of fixed supply, self custody and permissionless transactions. The fact that it doesn't produce cashflow is fine. All we want it to do is be the best ledger ever invented. When people are begging for trust, when they have enough of central bank manipulation, Bitcoin will be ready to lead the way!
So at that point, when people have had enough of the central banks etc, will products and services be priced in bitcoin?