not fooled by random market and by technical analysis

Hello padutrader,

Yes, I recall learning that high probability trades is more risk. But reward is defined by our method of exiting the trades. We can decide to scalp or swing trade.

I prefer swing trade and less decision making once I enter a trade.

I like high probability trade, so I am normally fading a trend already in momentum or motion.

 

yes, just trying to stay in trades longer and be logical and thoughtful about my exits.

 

trading is not about patterns or set ups or strategies.

trading is about math.....about what is likely..

in the end that is What Brooks is always stressing.

and what is likely? that you will know if you see enough charts or from experience:the trend if there is one will continue

 

i do not agree

the higher the probability the lower the reward-100% probability 0 reward.
that is why if probability is more than 70%, you may calculate the RR as 1:1 and once that is reached you may go countertrend

 

Brooks fills his books with set ups and not surprisingly readers think that is the main thing in trading.

it is not.

set ups will always set up in both directions-bull and bear-but the main thing is context which is that which is likelier to happen.

this is why many many people find his first book not actionable. i too agreed with them.

but instinct told me that Brooks was right and i stuck to it for 12 years and finally i had a eureka moment....i understood what Brooks was whispering through out his book

 

Please elaborate.

 

thank you for your comment

see you must understand this is why trading is so difficult.

set ups can be defined.

context cannot be. it can only be 'estimated'.

this is the main reason 95% of traders lose......

it takes some time before you can know what the market is likely to do......

.it took me 12 years because i was not looking for it......i was looking for the wrong thing which is strategies set ups and patterns:not 'what is likely to happen'.

some others may 'get it' sooner



markets will do what is not likely, many times......but then you will know this was not supposed to happen and you just cut and run.what was likely in this chart?

 

see chart
what do you think is likely? do you think it likely that it will turn around and break the recent high?
it might BUT IS IT LIKELY?
this is what trading is about

 

Thanks for your explanation. That's very astute of you.