not fooled by random market and by technical analysis

Discussion in 'Journals' started by padutrader, Sep 24, 2019.

  1. padutrader

    padutrader

    yes i am realising that.

    i am now thinking in terms of probability and risk ......and reward last.
     
    #111     Sep 25, 2019
  2. You're more than welcome padutrader,

    I knew you would agree 5000%
     
    #112     Sep 25, 2019
  3. Amahrix

    Amahrix

    No, you’re misunderstanding.

    The expected value is negative. So before he begins his “path” to (guaranteed) financial ruin, if he runs into some profits on the way there, that’s lucky for him.

    Law of small numbers is on his side.

    Law of large numbers is his enemy.

    Nevertheless, the path he is taking has a dead end. If he runs into some beautiful sites on the way. Lucky for him. He’s soon to meet what he never expected. :/
     
    #113     Sep 25, 2019
  4. padutrader

    padutrader

    markets may move randomly but in doing so, the prices become relatively high or relatively low and become attractive to sell or buy.

    these buying and selling activities sometimes form patterns but that is just a symptom of traders buying and selling.........
     
    Last edited: Sep 25, 2019
    #114     Sep 25, 2019
  5. Amahrix

    Amahrix

    Relative to what?! Historical prices?!


     
    #115     Sep 25, 2019
  6. maxinger

    maxinger

    In day trading, we don't talk about randomness.
    Only trading coaches, writers, mathematicians talk about that.


    In day trading, we talk about
    - continuation & reversal patterns where trader must enter position and seize the opportunity
    - garbage, directional-less pattern we stay out of the market
     
    #116     Sep 26, 2019
    OSN_invest and padutrader like this.
  7. Amahrix

    Amahrix

    You’re ignoring the elephant in the room.
     
    #117     Sep 26, 2019
  8. padutrader

    padutrader

    what you are doing is like going to a golf club and saying that to hit a good shot is luck and the odds of doing that is 1:1000000000.
    what is the point of this?
    everyone knows it is difficult.
    you are NOT talking about golf.
    YOUR POSTS ARE NOTHING ABOUT TRADING AND WHAT THIS FORUM IS ABOUT.
     
    #118     Sep 26, 2019
  9. padutrader

    padutrader

    that is his choice.
    are you smarter than him to tell him what to do....are you qualified to tell him what to do.
    are you qualified to tell Tiger Woods or Bill Gates that what they did is only due to luck?
    this forum is for traders if you are not one please get out:you have already said that only gamblers trade.
    in that case if you are not a gambler please do not come here
     
    #119     Sep 27, 2019
  10. Amahrix

    Amahrix

    No, it's not.

    Never said it was or wasn't.

    I know.

    Yes, they are. But you do not understand.

    To highlight to day traders that use only inductive reasoning based tools that their hands are not adequate to deal with the markets and that the quicker they realize this, the quicker they'll save themselves from ruin.
     
    #120     Sep 27, 2019