Not buy and hold

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by jrs3, Apr 4, 2004.

  1. jrs3


    Better get use to range trading folks, lots of money to be made, but not from buy and hold strategy.
  2. I agree.. in the long run.. now is not the time to be buying stocks.

    I would wait till the dow hits 9k.. to turn bullish.
  3. Unless you are trading the index, there is no range.
    There are 275 stocks in last 90 days which have made more than 10 point move on long side and 55 on short side.
    In last ten days there are 77 stocks with 5 points or more move on long side and 36 on the short side. ( Stocks trading at least more than 500000 per day).
    There are 10 stocks which made more than 10 point long move in last ten days.

    Whats your point.. its always been that way. There are $5 stocks than become $10 in 2 days.. and vice versa. Its always been that way and always will.

    We are specifically talking about the broader market.. the shit u hear about on TV all the time. Thats what most fund managers and professionals use to measure the US stock market as a whole.

    You should know most pro traders preffer to trade an instrument that is super liquid and not too volatile (gapping).. thats why the S&P is a good borameter. Many seasoned pro's avoid stocks that move in those type of ranges that u mentioned.. due to liquidity and dangerous risk levels.

    Actually speaking to good friends... some of the best ideas involve mutual fund/sector timing. Best of both world. Deep liquidity, very smooth, and not too volatile.

  5. Your absolute return matters, the benchmarks are for mutual funds and to show the public hey judge us against that. If you are real trader your objective should not be to benchmark with that .
    The way to outperform the index is to find stocks with higher beta. Liquidity is not at all a problem you can look at components of S&P and see how many have made what point moves in last ten days or 90 days.
    I also know many pros who are profitable under all circumstances and they are not obsessed with the index.
  6. Personally i dont feel comfortable taking a major position in stocks for my trading account... too much noise... upgrades/company news screw up the charts and the trends.

    My favorite trading vehicle is the Russel 2k. IWM continues to make new highs and is probably one of the strongest indices in the market. Its very liquid even has futures.. very smooth and trendy.

    As I posted many times in this forum.. I maintain a long term bearish outlook on the markets.. and continue to fade the IWM making new highs.

    However.. I will note that since the IWM has been range bound the past few months.. money could be made just as well on the long side. So I try to scale short the IWM in the 120$ range.. and will cover most of it on a 5-10 point down move.

    I just feel much safer putting on a huge short due to terrorist fears. Its something that bothers me.

  7. jrs3


  8. Continues to be a Perma-Bear and not only misses out on a 60 handle rally in the ES, but plays the short side, fading, fading, fading, until there is no more money left.
  9. ==========================
    Mike Trend Fader;

    I like index & stocks related to indexes also;
    IWM looks plenty liquid & Ive focused on SPY, QQQ & related stocks & occasional related derivatives.

    Interesting comment ''I just feel safer putting on a huge short due to terrorist fears. Its something that bothers me''

    Before & during my first long trade,Time Inc merging with Warner;
    I wrongly & ignorantly thought the whole market would crash like 1929.


    Of course on 5 minute charts they may sell off on any thing or gossip on Greenspans health;
    but war in general & the war on terror in particular- earnings have been much more relavent.

    Main points being as a matter long studied probabilities;
    enjoy being long in a bull market uptrend much more than waiting or low probability hoping for '' 9k on $INDU'' as you said.