Not a hedge, just a high beta tech stock

Collagen · Jan 7, 2022

GlobalMacro90 said:
Wow, we need a quant 101 class in this forum.

NOT BEING A DIRECT HEDGE DOESNT MEAN ITS 'POINTLESS'

Low correlation still greatly improves return/risk metrics (sharpe ratio) of a portfolio, even if correlations go to 1 in a crisis. It's not a hedge, but still very useful in increasing the quality (return/risk ratio) of a portfolio.
More...

.. and crater your account $ value too at the worst time, during mkt crash. What people fail to understand is that is more important that 1% of time with correlation close to 1 than the other 99% of the time when indeed low correlation is not really needed. I suggest You to grab a good book from Vince rather than waste money on some PointLess course. Capital preservation is what matter especially, probably this year.

vanzandt · Jan 8, 2022

vanzandt said:
This is a crucial level.
What it get to earlier, like 40.6?
41.9 as I type.

Albeit I don't own any, I do enjoy watching it.
I think it's a safe buy right now, but I'd be ready to stomach seeing 35.7 if worse comes to worse.
I would NOT use a stop, because if it does drop that low it'll be on low volume at the exact right time that that amount of volume could trigger that percentage of a drop.

Up until now I've had a pretty decent record for the last two years charting this thing. Fwiw, I told a friend who wanted to drop $500K in to wait until $41.6 last week. I have not talked to him yet, but I do know he opened an account somewhere so he might have got in. I did text him this AM. The only reason I mention this is because since I don't own any, this is as close to putting my money where my mouth is regarding buying any. I try not to give friends bad advice, they kinda trust me on market stuff.

So we'll see. Watch the volume though. If this in fact is not the bottom, use 1 hour candles. If it starts creeping down hour by hour on small trades, and gets south of $40K (or close), rest assured you'll get that big painful spike down at some point. That will be the bottom, wherever that spike settles within a 2 candle (hour) time-frame. If I had to guess where that would be, again assuming we're not there yet, and assuming the worst, I'd say right around 35.8.

@Pekelo pointed out that it is behaving like a high beta tech stock, and I agree. That has always been what I have based my charting on when predicting levels on this thing. I may not own any, but I've watched charts of 100's of high volatility stocks day in and day out for quite a long time now where I did have plenty of skin in the game.
There is a difference though, even compared to the most high vis bs stock. It's NOT a stock. That's the difference, and in a way, that makes charting it on a TA basis much easier. If that makes any sense.
But again, we shall see.
More...

Upward adjustment on the worse case scenario... 38.4

vanzandt · Jan 10, 2022

vanzandt said:
This is a crucial level.
What it get to earlier, like 40.6?
41.9 as I type.

Albeit I don't own any, I do enjoy watching it.
I think it's a safe buy right now, but I'd be ready to stomach seeing 35.7 if worse comes to worse.
I would NOT use a stop, because if it does drop that low it'll be on low volume at the exact right time that that amount of volume could trigger that percentage of a drop.

Up until now I've had a pretty decent record for the last two years charting this thing. Fwiw, I told a friend who wanted to drop $500K in to wait until $41.6 last week. I have not talked to him yet, but I do know he opened an account somewhere so he might have got in. I did text him this AM. The only reason I mention this is because since I don't own any, this is as close to putting my money where my mouth is regarding buying any. I try not to give friends bad advice, they kinda trust me on market stuff.

So we'll see. Watch the volume though. If this in fact is not the bottom, use 1 hour candles. If it starts creeping down hour by hour on small trades, and gets south of $40K (or close), rest assured you'll get that big painful spike down at some point. That will be the bottom, wherever that spike settles within a 2 candle (hour) time-frame. If I had to guess where that would be, again assuming we're not there yet, and assuming the worst, I'd say right around 35.8.

@Pekelo pointed out that it is behaving like a high beta tech stock, and I agree. That has always been what I have based my charting on when predicting levels on this thing. I may not own any, but I've watched charts of 100's of high volatility stocks day in and day out for quite a long time now where I did have plenty of skin in the game.
There is a difference though, even compared to the most high vis bs stock. It's NOT a stock. That's the difference, and in a way, that makes charting it on a TA basis much easier. If that makes any sense.
But again, we shall see.
More...

That 41.6 is a magnet isn't it?
Low today was 39.7
Hmmmm.
I think the spring is coiling.
42.025
It's heading up.

vanzandt · Jan 12, 2022

vanzandt said:
That 41.6 is a magnet isn't it?
Low today was 39.7
Hmmmm.
I think the spring is coiling.
42.025
It's heading up.
More...

And.. there it goes.
43.8
A little FOMO momo and you guys will be at 46 in no time.

johnarb · Jan 20, 2022

NICE CORRELATION!! bwahahahahahah!!

Pekelo · Jan 21, 2022

johnarb said:
NICE CORRELATION!! bwahahahahahah!!
More...

Care to post that again?

Yesterday's high to low drop:

SPX: -2.5%
NDX: -3%
BITO: -2.5%
BTC: 43,400 to 42,600 (by 4 pm) to 38,500 (by 11 pm)

So BTC did the same 2% drop like the general market (hey, almost a hedge!) during market hours, quickly catching up and more after hours. A 5K drop is like 12% in 12 hours

Hedge my ass...

Pekelo · Jan 21, 2022

Some guys have all the stupidity...

GlobalMacro90 said:
1.Wow, we need a quant 101 class in this forum.

2.NOT BEING A DIRECT HEDGE DOESNT MEAN ITS 'POINTLESS'

3.Low correlation still greatly improves return/risk metrics (sharpe ratio) of a portfolio, even if correlations go to 1 in a crisis.

4.It's not a hedge, but still very useful in increasing the quality (return/risk ratio) of a portfolio.
More...

1. OK, I will be your teacher...No charge.
2. Nobody said it was pointless, I just refuted the original claim of being a hedge. That was true until 2019, but once industrial money moved in, it stopped being a hedge.
3. It is not low, BTC is highly correlated to the NDX, just like any high beta tech stock would be.
4. I agree, if you bet correctly (big if) you may as well do it using BTC or BITO. But that is because of the high correlation nature of them...

johnarb · Jan 21, 2022

Pekelo said:
Care to post that again?

Yesterday's high to low drop:

SPX: -2.5%
NDX: -3%
BITO: -2.5%
BTC: 43,400 to 42,600 (by 4 pm) to 38,500 (by 11 pm)

So BTC did the same 2% drop like the general market (hey, almost a hedge!) during market hours, quickly catching up and more after hours. A 5K drop is like 12% in 12 hours

Hedge my ass...
More...

You waited long enough to be correct

Nasdaq was down for 2 days and bitcoin was up as it showed on the picture

The reason bitcoin went down after hours is because of margin calls to the stock market "investors" who needed to sell their cryptos to raise cash

Bitcoin and cryptos will shoot back up once the over leveraged "investors" are flushed out of the system

Pekelo · Jan 22, 2022

johnarb said:
You waited long enough to be correct
More...

Timing is everything.

But BTC was still down 2% during regular hours. We can add another feature to cryptos' description. They continue the action in after hours. The same thing happened after the Friday's close and here we are at 35K...If Russia invades Ukraine, this will go below 30K.

I knew industrial money moving in will be the death knell for cryptos but you guys celebrated it...That is when it stopped being a hedge...

vanzandt · Jan 22, 2022

vanzandt said:
This is a crucial level.
What it get to earlier, like 40.6?
41.9 as I type.

Albeit I don't own any, I do enjoy watching it.
I think it's a safe buy right now, but I'd be ready to stomach seeing 35.7 if worse comes to worse.
I would NOT use a stop, because if it does drop that low it'll be on low volume at the exact right time that that amount of volume could trigger that percentage of a drop.

Up until now I've had a pretty decent record for the last two years charting this thing. Fwiw, I told a friend who wanted to drop $500K in to wait until $41.6 last week. I have not talked to him yet, but I do know he opened an account somewhere so he might have got in. I did text him this AM. The only reason I mention this is because since I don't own any, this is as close to putting my money where my mouth is regarding buying any. I try not to give friends bad advice, they kinda trust me on market stuff.

So we'll see. Watch the volume though. If this in fact is not the bottom, use 1 hour candles. If it starts creeping down hour by hour on small trades, and gets south of $40K (or close), rest assured you'll get that big painful spike down at some point. That will be the bottom, wherever that spike settles within a 2 candle (hour) time-frame. If I had to guess where that would be, again assuming we're not there yet, and assuming the worst, I'd say right around 35.8.

@Pekelo pointed out that it is behaving like a high beta tech stock, and I agree. That has always been what I have based my charting on when predicting levels on this thing. I may not own any, but I've watched charts of 100's of high volatility stocks day in and day out for quite a long time now where I did have plenty of skin in the game.
There is a difference though, even compared to the most high vis bs stock. It's NOT a stock. That's the difference, and in a way, that makes charting it on a TA basis much easier. If that makes any sense.
But again, we shall see.
More...

So I missed 35.8. the low was 33.8.
AND, I had upped my low to 38.4.
Wrong again.
Whatever.
That was the flush (to 33.8) I spoke of.
Pretty sure.
I guess we'll see.

I'm thinking.... up we go.
All markets.
The bottom's in.