Not 97% but .3% of Climatologists agree.

Discussion in 'Politics' started by jem, Sep 16, 2013.

  1. Max E.

    Max E.

    1500 vs 108500 who die each year due to cold, cold weather is an exponentially greater killer than heat, why do you think population is tends to be denser in areas that are warmer?

    Pull your head out of your ass you dumb fuck.



    Winter kills: Excess Deaths in the Winter Months


    108,500 Deaths in the US in 2008; 36,700 in England and Wales Last Winter; 5,600 in Canada (2006); 7,000 in Australia (1997-2006 Average); Thousands in Other Developed Countries

    Since extreme cold has gripped much of the Northern Hemisphere, some newspapers have been keeping a tally of the number of deaths obviously caused by extreme cold (e.g., freezing). But the BBC’s Health Correspondent, Clare Murphy, in a very timely and, in my opinion, excellent article, How cold turns up the heat on health, reminds us that many more deaths occur from chronic conditions that are exacerbated by cold weather. She also notes that, “For every degree the temperature drops below 18C, deaths in the UK go up by nearly 1.5%.”

    Following is a compilation of excess deaths during the winter months (compared to what occurs on average during the rest of the year) in a number of developed countries in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. Unfortunately, our politicians complain about the warmth and would like to make the climate cooler if they could, even as they bemoan the costs of health care.

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    Figure 1: Average daily deaths for each month, United States, 2001-2008. Sources: 2001-2004 data from National Center for Health Statistics, DataWarehouse at http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/datawh/statab/unpubd/mortabs/gmwkIV_10.htm, and National Vital Statistics System available at http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/deaths.htm; 2005 data from Births, Marriages, Divorces, and Deaths: Provisional Data for 2006, Volume 55, Number 20, 6 pp (PHS 2007-1120); 2006 data from Births, Marriages, Divorces, and Deaths: Provisional Data for 2007. NVSR Volume 56, Number 21, 6 pp (PHS) 2008-1120; 2007-08 data from Births, Marriages, Divorces, and Deaths: Provisional Data for 2008. NVSR Volume 57, Number 19, 6 pp.

    The figure above, based on data from the US National Center for Health Statistics for 2001-2008, shows that on average 7,200 Americans died each day during the months of December, January, February and March, compared to the average 6,400 who died daily during the rest of the year. In 2008, there were 108,500 “excess” deaths during the 122 days in the cold months (January to March and December; it was a leap year).


    Canada, 1991-2006

    Figure 2, based on data from CANSIM for 1991-20068, shows that on average 656 Canadians died daily in January compared to 546 per day in A

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    Figure 2: Average daily deaths for each month, Canada, 1991-2006. Source: CANSIM (2009).

    England & Wales, 1950/51-2008/09

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    Figure 3: Excess winter mortality, England and Wales, 1950/51–2008/09. Source: UK ONS (2009).

    Figure 3 shows that despite an increase in the population of England and Wales, excess winter deaths have generally declined since the 1950s due, probably, to increased affluence, better heating and insulation, clothing and any warming (whether due to UHI or global warming). [Also, some readers may know more about this, but I believe rationing was still in force in the UK in the early 1950s. Poor nutrition would have exacerbated mortality.]

    However, last winter (Dec 2008-Mar 2009), there was a remarkably large jump in the excess number of winter deaths, perhaps due to colder/damper weather and increased fuel prices. The UK’s Office of National Statistics states:

    “In the winter period of December to March 2008/09 there were an estimated 36,700 more deaths in England and Wales, compared with the average for the non-winter period (see definition below). This was an increase of 49 per cent compared with the number in the previous winter 2007/08. This is the highest number of excess winter deaths since the winter of 1999/2000, when excess winter mortality was nearly a third higher than in 2008/09.”

    It will be interesting to see the figures when data are available for this year.

    Other Developed Countries

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    Figure 4: Monthly percentage variation in mortality compared to yearly average over the last years in European Mediterranean countries and other selected countries worldwide. Countries in the legend are listed according the absolute number of average deaths per day observed, in descending order. Source: Fagalas et al. (2009).

    Finally, Figure 4 shows the percent variation in monthly mortality relative to annual averages for recent years in various developed countries. Notably, even Greece and Cyprus (!) have greater mortality in the winter months, even though one would not classify either of them as particularly cold places. See the Table above.


    References:

    Falagas ME, Karageorgopoulos DE, Moraitis LI, Vouloumanou EK, Roussos N, Peppas G, Rafailidis PI (2009). Seasonality of mortality: the September phenomenon in Mediterranean countries. CMAJ 181(8): 484-6.
     
    #61     Oct 7, 2013
  2. gwb-trading

    gwb-trading

    It astounds me that anyone would make the claim that heat kills more people than cold. It is well-known through every study done from decades world-wide that cold kills at least 3 times the number of people that heat does. While in the U.S. the numbers may have been near 1 to 1 for some years in the couple recent decades, outside the U.S. cold is the predominant killer of humans over heat by a large margin.
     
    #62     Oct 7, 2013
  3. jem

    jem

    fc is really a selfish sob.

    if he really cared about global warming he would not be selling air conditioners.

    leftists tell people what to do and do the opposite like al gore.
    they are in it for power or money.

    leftist drones do the same thing but don't even realize what they are doing.
     
    #63     Oct 7, 2013
  4. fhl

    fhl

    [​IMG]
     
    #64     Oct 7, 2013
  5. Ricter

    Ricter

    Why has the ratio been near 1:1 in the US in recent decades?
     
    #65     Oct 7, 2013
  6. stu

    stu

    To be very clear then, I produced another "broad survey" , though the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences is hardly merely a survey.
    1,376 researchers with citation data finding 97% of scientists support agw, is far broader than any "survey".

    Agw is a fact in the same way photosynthesis is a fact. The role co2 plays in those two is fact.
    Co2 causes global warming is fact. If it didn't the earth would be completely unsuitable for 'life as we know it Jim'. That's a fact.

    Man made co2 is a fact.
    That a portion of man made co2 from burning fossil fuel remains in the atmosphere is a fact. Having a uniquely distinct signature, it is measured as a fact.
    Natural processes take up all natural emissions of co2, plus nearly 60% of man-made emissions. That's a fact. This leaves around 16 billion tons of anthropogenic co2 in the atmosphere every year . That's a fact.

    As co2 warms the atmosphere by retaining heat, human-induced co2 will do exactly the same when left in the atmosphere. That's a fact. As human-induced co2 is being left in the atmosphere, agw is a fact.

    So agw is a fact just like photosynthesis is a fact. The real debate is to what significant extent there is, or is going to, be any harmful affect upon the climate. Then there's a separate political debate about how to manage the issue based upon the fact.
    Or in other words, how much of a no brainer is it for humankind to not unbalance a natural system which fundamentally holds in equilibrium the difference between human existence and extinction.
    The mornic anti-science refuseniks of agw facts do not produce any kind of real debate. Just one more weird wonderland where evolution deniers / no moon landing / flat earth / birthers / god did it conspiracy extremists once again struggle with the reality of facts.
     
    #66     Oct 8, 2013
  7. gwb-trading

    gwb-trading

    It appears you DO NOT know the difference between a survey like Doran/Zimmerman where they received 3000+ results to a survey sent to scientists, and a study where the NAS looks at citation data and infers a hypothesis.

    BTW - AGW is not a FACT. By 2040 it will be viewed as fabricated scam; the same way we view the 'global cooling' scare from the 1970s today.
     
    #67     Oct 8, 2013
  8. gwb-trading

    gwb-trading

    Low cost fuel for heating (Thanks to fossil fuels).
     
    #68     Oct 8, 2013
  9. Ricter

    Ricter

    Rising heat-related deaths are not part of the equation?
     
    #69     Oct 8, 2013
  10. gwb-trading

    gwb-trading

    So you are taking yet another opportunity to cast your absurd categorization on those who do not support AGW alarmism.

    Let me be clear for the record. Nearly all the people I have met who are skeptical about AGW have PhD and Master degrees. None are 'evolution deniers / no moon landing / flat earth / birthers / god did it conspiracy extremists'.

    P.S. Many vote democratic and do university research for a living.
     
    #70     Oct 8, 2013