As an independent test of the measured consensus, we also emailed over 8,500 authors and asked them to rate their own papers using our same categories. The most appropriate expert to rate the level of endorsement of a published paper is the author of the paper, after all. We received responses from 1,200 scientists who rated a total of over 2,100 papers. Unlike our team's ratings that only considered the summary of each paper presented in the abstract, the scientists considered the entire paper in the self-ratings. The 97% Consensus Results Based on our abstract ratings, we found that just over 4,000 papers expressed a position on the cause of global warming, 97.1% of which endorsed human-caused global warming. In the self-ratings, nearly 1,400 papers were rated as taking a position, 97.2% of which endorsed human-caused global warming. We found that about two-thirds of papers didn't express a position on the subject in the abstract, which confirms that we were conservative in our initial abstract ratings. This result isn't surprising for two reasons: 1) most journals have strict word limits for their abstracts, and 2) frankly, every scientist doing climate research knows humans are causing global warming. There's no longer a need to state something so obvious. For example, would you expect every geological paper to note in its abstract that the Earth is a spherical body that orbits the sun? This result was also predicted by Oreskes (2007), which noted that scientists "...generally focus their discussions on questions that are still disputed or unanswered rather than on matters about which everyone agrees" However, according to the author self-ratings, nearly two-thirds of the papers in our survey do express a position on the subject somewhere in the paper. We also found that the consensus has strengthened gradually over time. The slow rate reflects that there has been little room to grow, because the consensus on human-caused global warming has generally always been over 90% since 1991. Nevertheless, in both the abstract ratings and self-ratings, we found that the consensus has grown to about 98% as of 2011.
wow you are a fraud. even assuming cook would and could reproduce his results... which he has refused to do. when 66% of the papers do not take a position you can not say 97% of scientists support the idea that man made co2 is causing global warming. that is a fraudulent statement not even close to being backed by the data you have shown us.
http://www.thenewamerican.com/tech/...sus-data-97-of-scientists-affirm-agw-debunked ... Dr. Tol has statistically deconstructed the 97 percent consensus myth of Cook et al. Professor Tol utilizes four graphs to demonstrate the biased methods utilized by the Cook team to skew the results of their âresearch.â One of the major âerrorsâ of the study (whether intentional or the result of incompetence) was the use of the term âglobal climate changeâ to search the scientific database for papers that were included in the 12,000 tabulated by Cook and his co-authors. In his first graph, Dr. Tol points out that by including âglobalâ before âclimate change,â Cook et al âdropped 75% of papers and changed disciplinary distribution.â In his second graph, Dr. Tol demonstrates that by including âglobalâ before âclimate change,â the supposedly authoritative Cook study conveniently âdropped many papers by eminent climate researchers.â And Tol lists around 50 of those researchers who were âdropped.â These, of course, represent only a small sampling of the thousands of scientists who have expressed various levels of disagreement with the hysterical climate pronouncements of the IPCC, Al Gore, and John Cook. Tolâs third graph shows that by including âglobalâ before âclimate changeâ the Cook team âdropped 33 of the 50 most cited papers.â In his fourth graph, Dr. Tol shows that the Cook team also skewed the results of their findings by the database they chose to draw papers from, using the Web of Science (WoS) rather than SciVerse Scopus. âChoosing exclusive WoS over inclusive Scopus, Cook et al. dropped 35% of papers and changed disciplinary distribution,â Tol observes. Another E-mail Scandal Reveals Cookâs "97 Percent" Scam Populartechnology.net has posted e-mails from John Cookâs Skeptical Science website concerning what Cook calls âThe Consensus Projectâ or TCP. The e-mails, from early 2012, reveal the huge promotional campaign Cook was rolling out to publicize the consensus study â before he had even done the study. It is also evident from the e-mails that Cook knew he was cooking the data to reach a preconceived conclusion. In his "Introduction to TCP" e-mail of January 19, 2012, Cook explains to team members: It's essential that the public understands that there's a scientific consensus on AGW [anthropogenic (man-made) global warming]. So Jim Powell, Dana and I have been working on something over the last few months that we hope will have a game changing impact on the public perception of consensus. Basically, we hope to establish that not only is there a consensus, there is a strengthening consensus. Deniers like to portray the myth that the consensus is crumbling, that the tide is turning. Right from the get-go, it is apparent that Cook is planning to cook up a âgame changingâ study that will prove the âscientific consensusâ he wants the public to accept. Typical of Cook and activists of his ilk is their use of âdeniersâ when referring to their opposition, an attempt to smear scientists who hold different opinions by equating them with Nazi holocaust deniers. It is hardly the mark of professional civility and collegiality one expects from true scientists. Cookâs âIntroductionâ admits that âTCP is basically an update and expansion of Naomi Oreskes' survey of the peer-reviewed literature with deeper analysis.â That is an interesting admission, since the 2004 Oreskes study â which was the original source for the 97 percent claim â was exposed for the same methodological flaws. Dr. Benny Peiser, a social science professor at John Moores University and visiting fellow at the University of Buckingham, eviscerated the Oreskes study, pointing out that Oreskes had falsified the so-called consensus by her faulty selection criteria in choosing papers to include in her survey. (See here and here.) In his "Introduction to TCP," Cook acknowledges that probably only half of the 12,000 papers theyâve selected will either explicitly or implicitly endorse AGW alarmism. But over time, he expects online volunteers to âprocessâ many of the 6,000 non-endorsement papers, âconvertingâ them into endorsements! Hereâs Cook: I anticipate there will be around 6000 "neutral" papers. So what I was thinking of doing next was a public crowd sourcing project where the public are given the list of neutral papers and links to the full paper â if they find evidence of an endorsement, they submit it to SkS (Skeptical Science)â¦. Thus over time, we would gradually process the 6000 neutral papers, converting many of them to endorsement papers â and make regular announcements like "hey the consensus just went from 99.75% to 99.8%, here are the latest papers with quotes."
Your as much an idiot as Moncton. By all reasonable survey and estimates 97% agree. Certainly not 0.3% Ninety-seven percent of climate scientists agree that climate-warming trends over the past century are very likely due to human activities,1and most of the leading scientific organizations worldwide have issued public statements endorsing this position. The following is a partial list of these organizations, along with links to their published statements and a selection of related resources. AMERICAN SCIENTIFIC SOCIETIES Statement on climate change from 18 scientific associations "Observations throughout the world make it clear that climate change is occurring, and rigorous scientific research demonstrates that the greenhouse gases emitted by human activities are the primary driver." (2009)2 AAAS emblem American Association for the Advancement of Science "The scientific evidence is clear: global climate change caused by human activities is occurring now, and it is a growing threat to society." (2006)3 ACS emblem American Chemical Society "Comprehensive scientific assessments of our current and potential future climates clearly indicate that climate change is real, largely attributable to emissions from human activities, and potentially a very serious problem." (2004)4 AGU emblem American Geophysical Union "The Earth's climate is now clearly out of balance and is warming. Many components of the climate system â including the temperatures of the atmosphere, land and ocean, the extent of sea ice and mountain glaciers, the sea level, the distribution of precipitation, and the length of seasons â are now changing at rates and in patterns that are not natural and are best explained by the increased atmospheric abundances of greenhouse gases and aerosols generated by human activity during the 20th century." (Adopted 2003, revised and reaffirmed 2007)5 AMA emblem American Medical Association "Our AMA ... supports the findings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Changeâs fourth assessment report and concurs with the scientific consensus that the Earth is undergoing adverse global climate change and that anthropogenic contributions are significant." (2013)6 AMS emblem American Meteorological Society "It is clear from extensive scientific evidence that the dominant cause of the rapid change in climate of the past half century is human-induced increases in the amount of atmospheric greenhouse gases, including carbon dioxide (CO2), chlorofluorocarbons, methane, and nitrous oxide." (2012)7 APS emblem American Physical Society "The evidence is incontrovertible: Global warming is occurring. If no mitigating actions are taken, significant disruptions in the Earthâs physical and ecological systems, social systems, security and human health are likely to occur. We must reduce emissions of greenhouse gases beginning now." (2007)8 GSA emblem The Geological Society of America "The Geological Society of America (GSA) concurs with assessments by the National Academies of Science (2005), the National Research Council (2006), and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007) that global climate has warmed and that human activities (mainly greenhouse‐gas emissions) account for most of the warming since the middle 1900s." (2006; revised 2010)9 SCIENCE ACADEMIES International academies: Joint statement "Climate change is real. There will always be uncertainty in understanding a system as complex as the worldâs climate. However there is now strong evidence that significant global warming is occurring. The evidence comes from direct measurements of rising surface air temperatures and subsurface ocean temperatures and from phenomena such as increases in average global sea levels, retreating glaciers, and changes to many physical and biological systems. It is likely that most of the warming in recent decades can be attributed to human activities (IPCC 2001)." (2005, 11 international science academies)10 USNAS emblem U.S. National Academy of Sciences "The scientific understanding of climate change is now sufficiently clear to justify taking steps to reduce the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere." (2005)11 U.S. GOVERNMENT AGENCIES USGCRP emblem U.S. Global Change Research Program "The global warming of the past 50 years is due primarily to human-induced increases in heat-trapping gases. Human 'fingerprints' also have been identified in many other aspects of the climate system, including changes in ocean heat content, precipitation, atmospheric moisture, and Arctic sea ice." (2009, 13 U.S. government departments and agencies)12 INTERGOVERNMENTAL BODIES IPCC emblem Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change âWarming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level.â13 âMost of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely* due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.â14 *IPCC defines âvery likelyâ as greater than 90 percent probability of occurrence.
In the self-ratings, nearly 1,400 papers were rated as taking a position, 97.2% of which endorsed human-caused global warming.
http://www.climatechangedispatch.co...ture-rises.html In a study recently published in Global and Planetary Change, Humlum et al. (2013) introduce their analysis of the phase relation between atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and mean global air temperature by noting that over the last 420 thousand years, "variations in atmospheric CO2 broadly followed temperature according to ice cores, with a typical delay of several centuries to more than a millennium," citing Lorius et al. (1990), Mudelsee (2001) and Caillon et al. (2003). And they explain this relationship by stating it "is thought to be caused by the slow vertical mixing that occurs in the oceans, in association with the decrease in the solubility of CO2 in ocean water, as its temperature slowly increases at the end of glacial periods (Martin et al., 2005), leading to subsequent net out-gassing of CO2 from the oceans (Togweiler, 1999)." So if this be true for glacial cycles, should it not also be true for seasonal cycles? Feeling that such might indeed be the case, the three Norwegian researchers intensively studied the phase relations (leads/lags) between atmospheric CO2 concentration data and several global temperature data series - including HadCRUT, GISS and NCDC surface air data, as well as UAH lower troposphere data and HadSST2 sea surface data - for the period January 1980 to December 2011. And what did they find? Humlum et al. report that annual cycles were present in all of the several data sets they studied and that there was "a high degree of co-variation between all data series ... but with changes in CO2 always lagging changes in temperature." More specifically, they state that "the maximum positive correlation between CO2 and temperature is found for CO2 lagging 11-12 months in relation to global sea surface temperature, 9.5-10 months [in relation] to global surface air temperature, and about 9 months [in relation] to global lower troposphere temperature," so that "the overall global temperature change sequence of events appears to be from the ocean surface to the land surface to the lower troposphere."
cook here in the abstract tells you that 32.6 percent of the papers endorse AGW. Cook himself you fricken tool fc. Cook says it in his abstract... click the link... this is real. http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/8/2/024024 We analyze the evolution of the scientific consensus on anthropogenic global warming (AGW) in the peer-reviewed scientific literature, examining 11 944 climate abstracts from 1991â2011 matching the topics 'global climate change' or 'global warming'. We find that 66.4% of abstracts expressed no position on AGW, 32.6% endorsed AGW, 0.7% rejected AGW and 0.3% were uncertain about the cause of global warming. Among abstracts expressing a position on AGW, 97.1% endorsed the consensus position that humans are causing global warming. In a second phase of this study, we invited authors to rate their own papers. Compared to abstract ratings, a smaller percentage of self-rated papers expressed no position on AGW (35.5%). Among self-rated papers expressing a position on AGW, 97.2% endorsed the consensus. For both abstract ratings and authors' self-ratings, the percentage of endorsements among papers expressing a position on AGW marginally increased over time. Our analysis indicates that the number of papers rejecting the consensus on AGW is a vanishingly small proportion of the published research
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Today's FAIL - Al Gore predicted the North Pole would be ice-free in five years. Five years ago today. http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2008/12/al-gore-north-pole-will-disappear-in-5/#!