Good points, especially the not knowing about the behind the scenes deals that were struck prior to the war. Personally, I think many Arab leaders were in favor of seeing Saddam removed and told the US leadership so quietly, but publicly stated opposition to the US in order not to endanger their own political positions. I do not agree with your China approval theory. I take Bush and his cabinet at their word when they say our country's security policy will not be dictated by other nations. Furthermore, IMHO, I don't believe China would be so foolish as to intervene on the North's behalf as they did in the 50's. I think they understand us better now and would realize that A) Our intent would not be to move into China after disposing of Kim, and B) A capitalist Korea on her border may actually benefit her, in the way Hong Kong did/does. Perhaps that's an over-simplification, and perhaps I am giving the Chinese too much credit - or Bush, depending how you feel about him. Those more familiar with East Asian affairs please chime in. Just my .02.
The alternatives here are not pretty and get worse as time goes by. Still, I wouldn't expect us to do anything unless N. Korea shoots first. The unpleasant alternatives include N. Korea using nuclear blackmail to fund development of long range missiles, which it then sells to places like Pakistan, Iran and Syria. The transfer of nukes to terrorist groups or pariah regimes is also a distinct possibility. What if Castro or the Columbian terrorists got ahold of a couple of nukes? Political intimidation of S. Korea is a given and seems to be working. The unspoken terror is a reunification of North and South, combining the south's wealth and industry with the North's weapons and belligerence. Given the relatively small area from which they can launch, it is possible we could station an Aegis anti-missile cruiser off the Korean coast and knock down anything they shoot our way. At some point our troops in S. Korea could be more of a problem than a deterrant. If we are going to deliver a nuke shot to them, whcih I consider the most likely response, then we want our troops out of there. If you see us pull our troops, be very afraid.
It seems they have already done that. NK Missile Warhead Found in Alaska By Ryu Jin Staff Reporter The warhead of a long-range missile test-fired by North Korea was found in the U.S. state of Alaska, a report to the National Assembly revealed yesterday. ``According to a U.S. document, the last piece of a missile warhead fired by North Korea was found in Alaska,¡¯¡¯ former Japanese foreign minister Taro Nakayama was quoted as saying in the report. ``Washington, as well as Tokyo, has so far underrated Pyongyang¡¯s missile capabilities.¡¯¡¯ 03-04-2003 17:27 http://times.hankooki.com/lpage/nation/200303/kt2003030417272311970.htm This is a big deal. They have capability of producing additional nukes. Intelligence claims they have 3-4 already. And now they have demonstrated they can reach the homeland. Isn't this enough of a provocation? Josh