MSNBC just said the polls show Trump would lose to Buttiegieg by 4 points. That shows you right there the polls are useless. Most African Americans will stay home before they vote for someone who's gay.
Good news for Buttliplug is that Washington Post- ABC poll shows him within the margin of error against Trump.
Well in the precincts surrounding Fayetteville, where Trump had his rally for Bishop, there was up to 150% increase in turn out! Wow. Oh wait that’s a swing away from Bishop. Lol.
Biggest problem for Trump is he has a 3% approval rate among AAs and enthusiasm is to vote in 2020 is at historic levels right now. When black voter turnout is high Dems can win with 36% of the white vote.
I am sure that there is a black person somewhere in the country who will be motivated to turn out to vote by Elizabeth Warren. Not saying that many will not vote for her because she is a democrat and the dems own the plantation. But she is not a driver of new votes.
Warrens AA support is no more good or bad than anyone else in the race with the exception of Joe Biden. So you can say the same thing about Harris or Sanders right now too and it would still be useless. Conversely, if you are saying Warren will come up short on AA support in a general election then you would have to look at what she would do in terms of white support. She would need about 39% white to win if the numbers were similar to 2016.