North Carolina race: the bellweather for Trump's future?

Discussion in 'Politics' started by TreeFrogTrader, Sep 11, 2019.

  1. UsualName

    UsualName

    The fact that Trump has to come in is more telling of weakness on the right than anything else.

    I’m running through some of the exit poll data and the losses of Republican support seem to be in the suburbs. What you right wingers do with that is what will make all of the difference.
     
    #11     Sep 11, 2019

  2. The fact that Trump's coming in increases a candidates chances of winning, is not a sign of weakness by Trump. Not what the dems want to see as 2020 approaches.

    Try again.
     
    #12     Sep 11, 2019
    smallfil likes this.
  3. UsualName

    UsualName

    Oh no doubt Trump pulled the man over the line. but the fact that he NEEDED to come into a +12 district is telling of weakness.
     
    #13     Sep 11, 2019
  4. +12 based on what? Put something up so that I can examine it.

    As I said, if it is just a poll then, there is nothing new under the sun for an actual election to be more accurate than a poll.

    Also as I referred to earlier, the Washington Post-ABC poll shows all of the top candidates being able to beat Trump in 2020. Although it concedes that Buttigieg is "within the margin of error." You can't make this shiite up. Don't be surprised if that all turns out to be bullshit. Even if Trump loses, it is not going to be anything like the numbers they show for their duds.
     
    Last edited: Sep 11, 2019
    #14     Sep 11, 2019
  5. UsualName

    UsualName

    It’s the lean...

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    #15     Sep 11, 2019
  6. Tony Stark

    Tony Stark


    Thats not a poll moron.Trump and Romney win that district by 12 points and The GOP only won it by 2 last night.

    The district shifted 10 points to the left after Trump came into office.
     
    #16     Sep 11, 2019
  7. Okay, calculated off of partisan lean. Fine.

    Partisan lean is calculated off of normal elections and we know that special elections are quirky and based more on the candidates and outsiders influence.

    I am more interested in watching how trump's influence plays outs. Most people agree that the candidate in the 9th was a ho-hummer, and trump took him over the top. Partisan lean shows that he could have done better based on historical tendencies, but people can still get in trouble if they are a dud. Certainly your party knows that.

    If it could be demonstrated that trump's influence hurt him rather than helped him, point that out. I think he was in worse shape before trump intervened. And if he helped, well then Mr. Trump is going to be at the head of the ticket in 2020.
     
    #17     Sep 11, 2019
  8. UsualName

    UsualName

    No. Trump dragged him over the line. He was helpful to the point that he helped stave off a loss but hurtful in that he created an environment where a loss is possible. Trump flying in at the last minute won’t help in 2020 if the atmosphere is the same nationally.
     
    #18     Sep 11, 2019
  9. Buy1Sell2

    Buy1Sell2

    Dan Bishop did really well given the tampering issue last year. It's absolutely wonderful for Trump and emboldening for Republicans given that Mr Bishop was behind by 17 points 3 weeks ago due to the scandal. ---Looking real real good for the President (and the country) in 2020. Notice how Greg Murphy's district did not have any Dem Swing whatsoballsout and had no scandal.
     
    #19     Sep 11, 2019
  10. Buy1Sell2

    Buy1Sell2

    This would also confirm that polling is way off at best now and these polls that have Dems beating Trump are likely wrong.
     
    #20     Sep 11, 2019