Hey there... new guy here about to jump into day trading... so far I have perused a few posts/trading journals on this site, read a few day trading books on my Kindle from Amazon and about to open my TD account, so i can use their Think or Swim platform... I have heard it stated multiple times "its not as easy as it sounds", "90% of traders lose money" and I just don't "get it." I am itching to get on the Think or Swim paper money sim to see how wrong I am... but can someone explain why this is so hard? In my head I am thinking: study 1 pattern, make a scanner for it and be disciplined enough to only enter trades that meet that strict criteria, enter the trade with a stop/profit target that's 3:1 and just wait. It either hits the stop or I get the target. I specifically entered into conditions that are probable/favorable in this trade, so presumably I will hit the profit more than 50% of the time. At a 3:1 ratio, the profits are guaranteed. I see post after post of people saying they are grinding this out for years before they break even and eventually get into meager profit. It seems like as long as you pick your stop appropriately, the numbers should work out long term. If the account is 75K and you gain an average of just 0.2% gain a day, that's 6%/4.5K a month. If you have considerably more than this, the % gain requirements are even lower for a decent overall profit. Alright. Once you are done laughing at my naive view of the world, can you then explain the flaw in my logic?
The flaw in your logic is this... "so presumably I will hit the profit more than 50% of the time." ... Welcome to trading! And something else of note here..."I see post after post of people saying they are grinding this out for years before they break even and eventually get into meager profit..." Post after post of people saying they are taking years to make a profit...These people are not saying that "just because". Maybe it is because it is true? So you have to wonder why that is. You cannot discount those statements as being something they may have missed that you have now found and must be "the Grail." Give it a whirl on MGC, 1 contract. Trust me, start small. Do NOT jump in live on crazy ideas, you will regret it.
that is inaccurate.....90% of people in all fields lose let me tell you why it is hard? it is easy to learn to cook but to cook professionally will take considerably longer. it is easy to learn to play golf as an amateur but to play as a pro will take 5-10 years. if you really want to know how hard it is, go ask somebody, anybody or everybody for 10 usd:they will ask you 'why should i give it to you?' why should the market[everybody] give you anything? can you answer that Indeed do you really think you deserve that amount which you said you could earn, without learning anything, no experience.....
You will lose money initially (as in having negative expectancy, you may well win your first few trades...) The good news is you can make the learning experience as expensive as you like. If you're smarter than most, stay for a long time on a paper account (although some people can't handle the transition from paper to real money, your mileage may vary).
Don't misunderstand me, I KNOW there is good reason most people fail and am not disrespecting that fact and the hard work of those learning. I am looking for my "ahah" moment based on the math/reality of the career. It seems you are saying most people guess incorrectly the price direction when starting out more often than not, so way more losers than winners. I guess I can believe that but it seems like you have a worst case 50/50 shot assuming you choose randomly of getting the next move right...
yes do that and then wait for that pattern to form.... you have to sit and wait and wait and wait......and wait and wait and wait and wait and wait and wait and wait and wait and wait wait and wait and wait wan wait and wait....may be watch some porn and wait and wait and wait... BORED ALREADY? that is reality....and you will think because i waited for that pattern i missed a 100 tick move;not one 100 tick move, but 10. to hell with that pattern:i can enter anywhere and make 100 ticks.. who am i to say that is not possible?
Best advice I can give you is if you think it is so easy then go do it. Nothing else anyone can say will mean anything...so to do it and make thousands. Then we can have a better conversation.
Well this pattern/strategy is for the first 15 minutes after open of large movers. I would rather enter 5 trades a month on a perfect pattern only in the first 15 minutes of the day then force a lot of trades using vague patterns that I don't know too well. Of course I haven't started yet, but my thinking is patience/discipline will be rewarded
Once again i do not think it is easy, but it hasn't been communicated yet why it's hard. Of course I am going to paper trade, but even then will wonder if I'm getting lucky. Just trying to learn from those that have been there I would think a veteran can describe the differences between a seasoned trader and a losing trader and explain mathematically why most beginners are doomed.