Forecast is for 115,000. If were in line I think the market will hold up well tomorrow most likely closing at new highs. Anything over 250,000 and the federal reserve may look at this as being too strong. -50,000 or no job creation at all could also be very negative for the market.
87,000 would be just about what the market would want. ADP predicted 78,000 so you guys are just about inline where they are. Anything to extreme on either end will send the markets down tomorrow. Any number is just a wild guess when it comes to job numbers, it is a tough number to guess. I believe the housing sector and auto industry lost a good amount of jobs. Im going with 95,000-105,000
I don't think it will matter what numbers they report tomorrow. The Bulls will keep running. Looking for a pullback next week though.
I think in the next week or so if we get any nice up day followed by a huge reversal the same day, that this could be the start of a minor correction of 2-3%. I was calling for 1600 on the NDX a few days ago by end of October, since the huge jump I think that a drop to 1625-1635 is more likely.
from briefing.com (note Mr. 245k lol) Survey Says! Thank you to all who took the time to answer our non-farm payrolls report survey. The numbers ran from -10K to 245K, with the -10K caller a known options slinging pessimist, while Mr. 245K adds "but bonds will rally anyways." The average was 105.5K, the median 100K. These numbers are against a 119K on the latest CME derivatives auction (off from an initial 124K), consensus of 120K & Briefing.com at 115K. Replies came in from around the globe, with many pointing out thier "strategy" ("My non-existing model is telling me 82,000! This is primarily based on moon patterns..." from one international curve surfer," "After ADP, Hudson, ISM manu" 86.1 from an East Coast market maven, Payrolls 110K Bond rate 4.49%, "All scientifically determined using my secret analytical formulas" from GA). One Canadian professional is looking for a minor 35K bump, while also expecting a near term 10-yr yield of 4.68%, "As you can see, I am using a bar-bell approach..." Thoughts on the number were varied, with many pointing to manufacturing slow downs being the big drag, while some just offered a challenge "54K. Now you guess something..." (from a long time CBOT'er smart-guy). Straight from the bond pit, "20+ years as a local in the bond pit and my prediction average is lousy, here goes: I think new non-farm payrolls to be 135,000. Watch out for revisions. I think most of the players are leaning to long side of market, too much complacency there. Watch out below I think market sells off hard." Ouch While one offered the incredible..."111K. This one is gonna be another snoozer. Not too hot, not too cold. With numbers like this, the unemployment report will soon be relegated to second tier status." (Second tier status?! Never! No!) With one more dismissive of our favorite whipping-boy-report..."While market moving at times, the payrolls number is oft revised and represents only a piece of the employment data. While not totally irrelevant, one needs to use a three month moving average to get a decent picture, in my opinion." This gentleman is at 97K, a recurring number, "This inverted yield curve should not be ignored. Yes, there are supply and demand issues pulling long term rates down (especially during the late spring), but I believe that economic concerns are also partially driving down long term rates. "My feeling is that the GDP will be lower than people currently anticipate for one quarter, but it will not be negative. The market should be setting up for a nice run in 2007. "I think that the markets decline in May, June & July have already signaled a rough patch heading into December, January, and February. The housing market is a lot worse than the numbers show, but the worst is behind. "Since the Federal Reserve did not increase interest rates too much (I think Greenspan would still be increasing rates), and long term mortgage rates have started to come down, I think a decent spring is in store for the housing market. "The thing lacking with the stock market is leadership... but my feeling is that will come into focus after earning(s) are released and the election is over." This thoughtful commentary came from FL, but she did not hazard a guess..."I have been listening to market analysts and am wondering why the bond market appears to be assuming that there will be a hard landing in the economy and the stock market, at the same time, is acting like there will be a soft landing in the economy. While I believe that we are experiencing a somewhat trendless point in economic history, data seems to be mixed across the board adding to the trendless notion. If as evidenced by the reaction in the equity and debt markets there is confusion because of the lack of a definitive trend, imagine what Fed officials are going through. Regardless of the pending jobs data, we can still expect to see sideways, range trading to continue. Market forces will always continue to be played out. If I had a crystal ball to predict the outcome, I would not be writing this note to you." True enough. Thanks to all & may the best guesstimator win! (Special thanks to those who threw in compliments on our service as well!) http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/MarketAnalysis/BondMarketUpdate.htm