Tax increases, yes, spending decreases not as much, tax increases probably cause 4 times as much damage due to the fact that you are taking money directly from the end consumer who is most efficient at spending his money, also you are taking it from the private sector where the money has the greatest multiplier. Spending decreases come from the government, where there is already gigantic inefficiencies where you can get away with cuts, with very little effect, as the money does not circulate efficiently.
The national debt is ~16.5 trillion dollars. Intragovernment holdings are largely pension funds, reinvested in Treasuries. The chart cited in the article was a low-ball, written by Obama supporters, to downplay the magnitude of the crisis.
Good analysis, Max. ZH periodically reviews historical forecasting accuracy of various institutions - examines 10 years worth of economic predictions to see how they fared. Every agency in the US Government, EU, IMF, Worldbank failed miserably. In some cases, their growth estimates were 40-60% GDP out of synch with actual results, based on a 10 year look-back! Always to the upside!!! They all talk their book. They are all full of shit and couldn't predict the next two days, let alone 2 years. Devil is in the details. When the covers are pulled back and the details examined, the predictions are ludicrous. 4-5% real growth rates. 1-2% inflation. Huge rebounds in employment. It's all crap. The deficit will stay above 1 Trillion, for some time. The FED is ramping up QE to keep the paper deficit down. Iow, make it look like the economy is recovering, while the FED buys 1 trillion in ABS and Tbills with newly printed money. It's all a confidence game. All the agencies, forecasts, slick beaucrats in 10K suits. It's all a confidence game. If they came out with REAL numbers, with real CPI, and realistic growth projections.....our number#1 export would take it in the ass (treasury debt). And down with it, our way of life. Keeps the music going just alittle bit longer...
I seem to recall a projection from the CBO which showed Obamas deficits based on his plans in 2009, and it showed that the deficit this year would be at 700 billion, and 600 billion next year, and hit a low point of 400 billion in 2015, then it was going to start rising again, the one thing i have seen in these reports that seems to be consistent is that the deficit is going to climb dramatically after 2016-2017, which is going to be a disaster. It really is sad, our government budgets/projections have simply turned into a game of accounting tricks to support an agenda. This is why the democrats refuse to put anything down on paper, and havent passed a budget for 4+ years. If companies wildly overstated their numbers the way government did, people would be doing the perp walk.
Hey Ricter, would you mind mailing all your cartoon dollars to me? Obviously, they are worthless to you.
It's starting to come out that Lew was a big impediment to negotiations with the White House. It seems he refuses to even consider proposals from the Republicans. I guess he is a student of the Napoleon Bonaparte school of negotiation.
Does the Treasury Secy "make policy"? I thought he was just a cheer leader and mouthpiece for the Administration... ??