NoiseTrader's "Letting Profits Run" Series: Long BA

Discussion in 'Stocks' started by NoiseTrader, Apr 2, 2006.

  1. NoiseTrader's "Letting Profits Run" Series: Long BA

    Managing a longer term position (maximizing profits) is one of the most difficult challenges and a skill I'm trying to get better at. In this thread I’m going to document some of the thought processes involved in trying to let profits run in a long BA position.

    The initial entry was on 1/26. After the taking partial profits, a quick rotation up in early Feb 06 resolved into a tight, well-bid market. I kept a loose stop on the core long, until offers began to soften up prices a bit in early Mar.

    BA built a fair amount of trade above 72 hardening up 72 as support. I raised my stop up to 71.77 where it still sits.

    We saw range extension up to 80 in March and now faced with a trade-off between keeping the stop loose and staying outside of the control of liquidity or liquidate and try to sidestep a deep retracement and risk minimizing participation in any further rally.

    The tight bids in the monthly timeframe argue for a high level congestion whereas the end of the Oct-to-May bullish period for stocks may open up a downside surprise. To be continued…
     
  2. What are you trying to sell here?
     
  3. retracement down to 75

    sometimes it will go up from that chop area depending on market conditions.
     
  4. The most advantageous mindset (IMO) is to think about markets in an unorthodox way; which is another way of saying that there is little informational advantage in using conventional thinking or analysis. What is NOT happening is often more important than what IS happening.

    Following a conventional script, the broader market should top or reverse in this April-to- May timeframe whereas a failure to do that may have more ultimate utility for trading purposes.

    In BA, I expect bids to come into BA on any rotation down into the 76 to 76.50 range, so there is probably more useful information content in that event not happening -- so at this juncture that will be a heads up for me at least.
     
  5. do you hunt noise, or noise traders? what do you mean by "i hunt noise traders" ? sounds scary!

    surfer:confused: :D :confused:
     
  6. Those who are trading on noise as if it were information create trading opportunities for traders with better information... When we incorrectly read markets and act on that erroneous perception we become noise traders...Read NoiseTrader Manifesto (see below).