NoDoji's Trading Plan Development

Yeah that's par for the course I think. In reading older posts here the same patterns show up. One of 40yotrader's final posts may shed some light on why NoDoji left.
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1251249#post1251249
It seems the good traders who stick around do not post much or restrict their activity to a few threads only.

But really I think everyone knows her spiel by now and any who don't could simply search her post history, so no point in her continuing to rehash the same stuff. It's probably that more than trolls that caused her to leave, else she'd have announced she was moving to another forum.

 

Another good poster who left with no 'grand farewells' is jimrockford. His posts were thoughtful and he knew well of what he spoke. I continue to consistently profit from his contributions and I still look for him, occasionally, to this day.

 

SteveH,

Well spoken post, its basically what I have wanted to say but you put it more eloquently. I don't log on to ET that often but when I do its to read the gems that people like yourself or ND post. She is an awesome individual/trader, a rarity indeed. Sometimes I feel like shouting at people on ET but what is the point. People rarely change, they are more often than not stuck in their ways and belief structures and they want to blame their failures on anything/anyone but themselves. I am realizing that this is just life and the world we live in (human nature?). This also makes for great markets because the herd will continually lose.

Oftentimes people cant see a gift even though its right in front of them.

Once again I appreciate your posts Steve, thanks for taking the time occasionally.

PB

 

The days of forums offering good information keeps shrinking like the amount of profitable traders. Times have changed for the worse with so many rather giving insults or some other type of abuse, manners I suppose were not taught by parents. Have vendors that offer tidbits hoping to entice the unknowing, and other vendors who believe being egotistic is the way to entice business. Many newbies keep asking the same questions cause they too lazy to search on their own and then bitch cause those who know how to trade won't share their methods. Trading is like the jungle, either be the prey or the hunter, 95% are the prey, always worrying when they will be eaten, and they should worry cause they haven't spent the time to learn how, they want it the easy way.

Donna will be missed by the mature traders, those who understand what it takes to be dedicated to learning your craft. Those who insult only show all how immature and under confident they are in real life. Yes, shows your colors to put down people hiding behind a keyboard and yet all their posts offers almost nothing that generates trading ideas.

Forums are to give one ideas to go on and test how they could benefit. I have never asked for ten years of stats, wins/losses, drawdowns. You don't know how they were coded, but the idea of sharing entries and money management will eventually fade altogether.

I enjoyed a few PM's from Donna on health and diet-they have helped, and we both have shared a few trading ideas. She will be missed.

 

1-It is very easy for someone working in the IRS to find out if a certain person is a profitable trader and how much.
2-It is even simpler to obtain this info from people working at brokers. People talk too much.
3-It is, usually, very easy to find out the real name and address of most posters in a public forum.

Therefore it becomes an issue of simple due diligence to acquire the knowledge of who to listen in order to add to your trading arsenal and who to ignore or play games with.

Several/most people named and some posting on this thread, for example, are basically losing money traders, or very small winners, that make their money doing something else, like selling education to the uninformed, or as real estate agents, etc. And I didn't even verify that with the IRS this time, because there was no need to.

Ooopps... post 49...time to leave...

 

I must admit I am a little baffled by the replies to this thread. I guess this is why so many fail at trading.

I don't know NoDoji, and my criticism is not really directed at her, but I see little more than the "common sense" approach to TA/PA. Does people really need to be told to look at historical charts to find patterns that show signs of significance? What on earth where you guys doing before?

Find S/R levels, watch different time frames, buy the pullbacks in uptrends, sell the highs in downtrends. All of this is in every trading book ever written, so I fail to see the reason for the extreme level of adulation present in this thread.

If NoDoji has helped a lot of people, without charging for it, then more power to her. I wish her all the best, and continued trading success(?).

As for austinp's comment about this being the "holy grail". If a 1:1 R/R with 20 trades or more per day is the holy grail, I see why you became a vendor.

And I want to add that this post is not meant as an endorsement of looking at charts as the way to attain trading success.

 

when people start to talk about trading education, I feel his/her trading career is over.

ET is just for fun, not for trading, I need congratulate Nodoji. good for Nodoji to leave ET and start to mind her own business.

what Nodoji talked about, most I do not agree.

trading is very simple. about statistical edge, here is

if a market 70%~90% time is red/green, obviously it is a trending down/up. typical trending down market currently is natural gas/FSLR, trend up market is the index
if a market 50% time is red, it is a random range band

if 70%~90% time is green, that means buy, your chance of win is 70%~90%

if 70%~90%time is red, that means sell, your chance of win is 70%~90%

if 50% time is red or green, that means buy low/sell high, your chance of win is 50%. better avoid it! like coin flip.

most people are looking for the holy grail in technical analysis and backtesting. to me, forget about what heppend as soon as possible, focus on the current moment , prepare to take advantage of what will happen is the most important.

 

at first seemed like a great idea....so I whipped up a quick indicator in NinjaTrader to count the number of up candles versus downcandles...

Ran an analysis on NQ and TF (markets that can trend) when count was greater than 70% up candles or 70% down candles...

Conclusion: I didn't see anything of value.....market action after the defined rules appeared to be random...

 

Code below:


#region Using declarations
using System;
using System.ComponentModel;
using System.Diagnostics;
using System.Drawing;
using System.Drawing.Drawing2D;
using System.Xml.Serialization;
using NinjaTrader.Cbi;
using NinjaTrader.Data;
using NinjaTrader.Gui.Chart;
#endregion

// This namespace holds all indicators and is required. Do not change it.
namespace NinjaTrader.Indicator
{
/// <summary>
///
/// </summary>
[Description("")]
public class MarketTrend : Indicator
{
#region Variables
// Wizard generated variables
// User defined variables (add any user defined variables below)

private double totalCounter = 0;
private double UpCounter = 0;
private double DnCounter = 0;


#endregion

/// <summary>
/// This method is used to configure the indicator and is called once before any bar data is loaded.
/// </summary>
protected override void Initialize()
{
Add(new Plot(Color.FromKnownColor(KnownColor.Black), PlotStyle.Bar, "Plot0"));
Overlay = false;
}

/// <summary>
/// Called on each bar update event (incoming tick)
/// </summary>
protected override void OnBarUpdate()
{
// Use this method for calculating your indicator values. Assign a value to each
// plot below by replacing 'Close[0]' with your own formula.

Plot0.Set(0);

totalCounter = totalCounter + 1;

if(Close[0] > Open[0])
{
UpCounter = UpCounter + 1;
}


if(Close[0] < Open[0])
{
DnCounter = DnCounter + 1;
}


// Print(Time[0]);
// Print("totalCounter="+totalCounter);
// Print("UpCounter="+UpCounter);
// Print("DnCounter="+DnCounter);

if(UpCounter > DnCounter && totalCounter >= 5)
{
Plot0.Set(UpCounter / totalCounter);
PlotColors[0][0] = Color.Lime;
}


if(DnCounter > UpCounter && totalCounter >= 5)
{
Plot0.Set((DnCounter / totalCounter) * -1);
PlotColors[0][0] = Color.Red;
}

if(totalCounter >= 30)
{
totalCounter = 0;
UpCounter = 0;
DnCounter = 0;
}



}

#region Properties
[Browsable(false)] // this line prevents the data series from being displayed in the indicator properties dialog, do not remove
[XmlIgnore()] // this line ensures that the indicator can be saved/recovered as part of a chart template, do not remove
public DataSeries Plot0
{
get { return Values[0]; }
}

#endregion
}
}

#region NinjaScript generated code. Neither change nor remove.
// This namespace holds all indicators and is required. Do not change it.
namespace NinjaTrader.Indicator
{
public partial class Indicator : IndicatorBase
{
private MarketTrend[] cacheMarketTrend = null;

private static MarketTrend checkMarketTrend = new MarketTrend();

/// <summary>
///
/// </summary>
/// <returns></returns>
public MarketTrend MarketTrend()
{
return MarketTrend(Input);
}

/// <summary>
///
/// </summary>
/// <returns></returns>
public MarketTrend MarketTrend(Data.IDataSeries input)
{
if (cacheMarketTrend != null)
for (int idx = 0; idx < cacheMarketTrend.Length; idx++)
if (cacheMarketTrend[idx].EqualsInput(input))
return cacheMarketTrend[idx];

lock (checkMarketTrend)
{
if (cacheMarketTrend != null)
for (int idx = 0; idx < cacheMarketTrend.Length; idx++)
if (cacheMarketTrend[idx].EqualsInput(input))
return cacheMarketTrend[idx];

MarketTrend indicator = new MarketTrend();
indicator.BarsRequired = BarsRequired;
indicator.CalculateOnBarClose = CalculateOnBarClose;
#if NT7
indicator.ForceMaximumBarsLookBack256 = ForceMaximumBarsLookBack256;
indicator.MaximumBarsLookBack = MaximumBarsLookBack;
#endif
indicator.Input = input;
Indicators.Add(indicator);
indicator.SetUp();

MarketTrend[] tmp = new MarketTrend[cacheMarketTrend == null ? 1 : cacheMarketTrend.Length + 1];
if (cacheMarketTrend != null)
cacheMarketTrend.CopyTo(tmp, 0);
tmp[tmp.Length - 1] = indicator;
cacheMarketTrend = tmp;
return indicator;
}
}
}
}

// This namespace holds all market analyzer column definitions and is required. Do not change it.
namespace NinjaTrader.MarketAnalyzer
{
public partial class Column : ColumnBase
{
/// <summary>
///
/// </summary>
/// <returns></returns>
[Gui.Design.WizardCondition("Indicator")]
public Indicator.MarketTrend MarketTrend()
{
return _indicator.MarketTrend(Input);
}

/// <summary>
///
/// </summary>
/// <returns></returns>
public Indicator.MarketTrend MarketTrend(Data.IDataSeries input)
{
return _indicator.MarketTrend(input);
}
}
}

// This namespace holds all strategies and is required. Do not change it.
namespace NinjaTrader.Strategy
{
public partial class Strategy : StrategyBase
{
/// <summary>
///
/// </summary>
/// <returns></returns>
[Gui.Design.WizardCondition("Indicator")]
public Indicator.MarketTrend MarketTrend()
{
return _indicator.MarketTrend(Input);
}

/// <summary>
///
/// </summary>
/// <returns></returns>
public Indicator.MarketTrend MarketTrend(Data.IDataSeries input)
{
if (InInitialize && input == null)
throw new ArgumentException("You only can access an indicator with the default input/bar series from within the 'Initialize()' method");

return _indicator.MarketTrend(input);
}
}
}
#endregion

 

I think your assumptions on trend are incorrect. There could be a 50/50 red and green count and the market could still be trending.