My take: stay away from futures until 'you are killing it' in your stock trading. And I mean consistently when you assess accounts at the end of each week. Tell BH to come back with the futures sweet talk in a year or two. Better yet, ask him when he was finally consistently 'killing it' in futures. Admittedly, have not read your journal from the start, what stands out at this point is you have identified a method that is working with stocks. Keep at that. Don't distract yourself with a futures sim. Finally, you must have an quantifiable edge if you belly up to trade futures. Speaking from a systems trading perspective here, I don't do anything until I backtest it to the moon and back and it squeaks 'edge'. The most efficient game in town and it will go for all your chips. There's two cents for ya.
I've been paper trading ES for a while now and have made a few hundred dollars each day on 1 car using 3 pt stops, and using Hog's opening strategy combined with my own strategies for intraday moves. Today, for example, was a $600 day. I am assuming that when I actually trade I will be as disciplined as I am paper trading. I do have a nasty tendency to move stops too soon and I've heard that is a killer in futures. Demo trading on the real platform is my next step, then I plan to trade 1 car until I've proven myself disciplined with real money. I would really like to know why everyone is discouraging me from doing this. In case you journal followers haven't noticed, my greatest profits come when I trade one stock for a period of time. It's a lot easier for me to focus on one thing. I get to "know" it and so I have a lot of confidence trading it. I now also seem to have risk management discipline. Is there some awful thing that happens when trading ES (or futures in general) of which I'm unaware that causes accounts to mysteriously run to zero? From all the comments on ET, it sure seems that way.
nodoji, I noticed you just trade 200shares. paper trading is totally different thing from real money trading. I discourage you to do paper trading. paper trading means nothing. I suggest you trade corresponding ETF (similar move with the index market), so you can adjust your size to your comfortable level. after practicing there several months using real money, and you can execute your trade flawlessly, you are ready to go a notch high to the future market. future market is moving very fast, in blink of eye, you may gain lots of money, but you may lose lots of money. future is great tool to make money, and save the headache of PDT rule and lots of tax issues. you start to trade qqqq (NQ future), IWM (kind of ES), USO(crude)... focus on one is the right choice. do 200shares using real money, do it several weeks, check your trading record, whether those trades reach your desired results aginst the after-fact intra-day chart/news agenda. if not, keep there, until ok. if ok, then move on to 500shares level, that corresponds to 1 contract of ES/NQ/YM. if at that level, you are good. then focus on one future market, start to do your business regularly. in paper trading, you may flawlessy execute your trad, buy in real money, I bet you will hesitate/second guess/confuse/fight with the market since easily you are under water hundreds or thousands of dollars a day if your pschlogy is not there.
look at your trades, I did not feel right. when I checked STEC, actually it is a strong buy, so are ESRX. ESRX is rally nicely with a nice intra-day chart, I would buy in the thrust pullback at 65.5. from the three-month chart, i would buy it at 65! so i think you are not there yet for future market.
I've been trading with real money since my first trade last spring. I often "paper trade" a strategy before trying it out, but all the trades I post in this journal are real. I've also been trading 500-4000 shares since I started trading last year. The reason I backed down to 100-200 share lots over the past month was to get used to my new trading platform and also to exercise absolute discipline. Made a few mistakes on the new platform and was very glad they weren't 1000-share mistakes. So what I'm not getting with regard to trading ES is that if I put on a trade and put in a 3 pt stop, the slippage could be many more points than that? I guess that's what I'm missing with all these dire warnings I keep getting. I plan to trade 1 car with a 3 pt stop, so my max loss per trade is $150 + commish. So are you're saying that in the "real world" of futures the slippage when a stop is hit is gonna kill me?
Very solid analysis, and both are strong long term investments with proper risk management. Two people can go long and short the same stock and depending on time frame, both can make money. I am day trading/swing trading them, and my strategy is to short the stocks at these prices to take advantage of short term trend exhaustion. ESRX runs nicely from overbought to oversold and back on the daily chart. If I was a long term investor wanting to buy ESRX I would now wait for a pullback to at least 63.00. Since I'm a short term trader I want to catch a piece of that pullback after the buying frenzy today formed a double top at 66.45 and took a breather. STEC is also a strong long term investment in my opinion, but if I was a long term investor I would wait for a pullback from its extremely overbought condition. There is a massive short interest on STEC and once that built in buying demand fizzles, STEC will take a breather, allowing long term investors to get in at a more reasonable price. Remember when HOTT was an unstoppable freight train and S&P reiterated a Strong Buy every 2 weeks? HOTT also had a huge short interest and once the chart looked like STEC's chart, priced about 100 miles from the 200-day moving average, the retracement was on, all the way from 13.85 to 6.85 between late April and late May, about a month. Now I doubt STEC will retrace back to 12.00 in a month, but I do believe it will retrace back to 21.00 in the near term before resuming it's move up.
OK, it's time you know the truth. The truth is: trading is a zero sum game, if you win a few hundred dollars each day, it means someone else loses a few hundred dollars each day. If this "someone else" doesn't want to lose a few hundred dollars each day, he must stop you or some other winner from trading ES. Therefore, as a winner, you will be discouraged, prevented, or outright stopped from trading ES. However, if you lose a few hundred dollars each day, I welcome you to trade ES.
then why not join the frenzy buy? if it will pullback to 63 for ESRX, why not hold your short? even from the day trading point, that does not make any sense. in the frenzy buy, it thrusts a lot, but from the little pullback, it is very tricky to catch, could not get it? if you are in the major daily direction, i would congratualte you, but you are doing the contrary, rough to catch those little anti-major trend things, do you think make sense?
Not at all. There is no multi point slippage on the ES. Your stop will be filled on the number 99.999% of the time. Not sure why people are being so critical, you seem to have plenty of experience so go for it. Worst case your account starts dwindling $150 at a time, sounds like you have the know how to put an end to it before it gets out of control. Good luck
Nod, Jander is on your side. He is thinking the same as i have been for you...............You, you are the one with the moxie to progress in your trading, be it stocks or futures. The defeatist remarks you see from many persons in forums are nothing less than a reflection of themselves toward you and anyone else. Jander is 100% correct, slippage in ES is a non event for pikers like us retail players. Conversely, the truth is just the opposit, the "LACK" of slippage in ES is a beautiful thing. Trading futures in general is actually SAFER than trading stocks. Many well heeled pros will back up that statement. Sure as the MUSIC MAN says.........."you gotta know the territory" first. You are paper trading to become familiar with the territory (the platform and the instrument itself). We all know you are no "deer in the headlights" when confronted with real money in a trade. Take your time in the getting to know the territory, go with the speed that makes you comfy. X-trader is a little confusing at first look to set up. When i first got it a few years ago i was like > WTF< where is the manual? I called up TT in New York and they sent out a manual, today the manual is in PDF form on the internet. http://www.bluefutures.com/xtrader.htm Scroll down about 2/3 the page and click on that puppy for the whole 495 pages, haha. Out of that 495 pages you will never need 95% after you get setup. Let me know if you need any help on a specific item etc. I fully agree with the guy that said in ES and or NQ profits can rack up fast and losses can be just as fast. No kidding Dick Tracy!!!! Thats the beauty as well as the challenge. Nod completly understands the challenge and she is ready to take the leap when ready and not before. IF she decides to NOT trade futures, thats her decision also. Chicks can run with the BIG Dogs, chicks no longer sit on the porch when the big dogs go and have fun. PS: That manual there is a little dated, but it should help you.