Donna: How do you find your picks during the day? I was actually thinking of buying something like radarscreen which gives alerts, by indicator setups during the day. I don't know anyone that has something similiar. I have my favorites, as I guess everyone does, but it takes a lot of time to locate hot picks during the day. I usually find I "just missed" a great setup, too often during the day. It seems like you trade about 20 stocks consistently? Thx Paul
Paul, I have a watchlist of about 30 stocks/ETFs with samplings from various sectors (MOS/POT, IBM/MSFT, AMGN/CELG, APOL/CECO, ORLY/AZO, GS/BAC, FAZ/FAS, BBBY/WMT, DRI/MCD, CLF, USO, FSLR, GOOG, AAPL, etc). I have a separate 4-monitor view with tiny charts of one each of these on a 30-day and 5 minute time frame. I glance at these each day to determine if any of them are near major support or resistance levels (overbought/oversold), which might bring them onto my radar. But most of the time I find the stocks I want to trade by looking for stocks that rallied or fell hard on news, are at 52-week highs or lows, or by watching the high/low ticker. Stocks that hit a ton of highs in the day are good for catching the long trend on the next pullback that doesn't violate the intraday simple moving averages (SMAs), or a short option once price fails to make a new high; stocks hitting lows are a short option on each rally that doesn't move above the intraday SMAs, or a long option once price fails to find a new low. Sometimes even when I'm watching just two charts, I just miss a great setup, they often happen so fast. This is my quirky unscientific method of picking what to trade. Yesterday's trading of DRI was rather different for me strategically. It gave me confidence, though, that it really doesn't matter what I trade or what the setup is as long as there's volume and movement. I am doing my darndest to get into the "cut losses quickly" groove, so I can be unafraid to take any setup whatsoever, which will allow me to catch some nice runs when the market offers them. I just finished the chapter in Alan Farley's book "The Master Swing Trader" where he discusses win/loss calculations. He has a small table showing Three Ways to Make a Profit: 1. 75% win rate, average loss can be greater than average win. 2. 50% win rate, average win should be larger than average loss. 3. 25% win rate, average win is much larger than average loss. I'm currently using #1: Ultra conservative in taking only the best setups, very high win rate, and willing to endure a significant drawdown on a trade I expect to retrace, sometimes taking a pretty large loss as a result. (Expectation is a trader's worst enemy.) Where I want to be is #2: It would mean I'm trading aggressively, taking all sorts of signals long and short, exercising unemotional discipline by cutting losses quickly, and very likely to catch some big winners as a result of the more active trading. Mark Douglas's 20-trade exercise in Trading in the Zone is very much about being a 50/50 small loss/big win trader. I think it really builds confidence and discipline. Interestingly, I've had conversations with two very profitable traders I've seen posting on ET. One of them trades in the #1 style (automated) and the other trades the #2 style (manual), demonstrating that you really have to find the style of trading you're most comfortable with, because nobody has THE Holy Grail of trading.
Thx! I have been trying to find a setup that lets me view, a number of charts at the same time, I have a 24 inch monitor, with my laptop. I am trying to find the best way to view 20 to 30 at the same time, it does get confusing. Thats why I am thinking of subscribing to radarscreen. My strategy to is to trade less often, not getting frustrated by waiting for good setups, is (my biggest vice right now.) By waiting for better setups, I have noticed in the past few weeks, my winning percentage is way up. I like POT, MOS, ICE also! great for volatility for trades. Do your mini-charts have at least one indicator, the smaller I made my charts the less I can fit on them.
Yes, they have a stochastic pane, volume pane, and 10- and 20-period SMAs, same as my larger charts. I only use the small charts to glance and see what's coming into major S/R. For example, AAPL just pulled back slightly from a very strong resistance level ($103) that's proven impossible to crack on the last two attempts in the past 3 months. This is the 3rd failure (so far). A swing trader would be short the stock right now with a stop above that level, or would sell calls/purchase puts. Intraday, I'd be leaning toward the short side.
NEM looks really good for a swing short, too. It reminds me of the airlines, moving in large smooth trajectories from overbought to oversold and back on the daily chart over a period of weeks. I'm setting up a "paper" swing trading account Monday for just these sorts of stocks to see how it performs vs. my day trading account. I may post the results in this journal.
IDK about Apple, actually hit 103.09 after hours on Friday, the highest its been in months. I would probably wait for another failure to crack 103 during intraday trading to short. IMHO. 3/18 at 2:00p.m. actually topped at 103.30!
+$157 Mainly a scalping day as I practiced my L2 reading ability. Total waste of my time as the nice market gain wouldâve carried almost any long position beautifully. ORLY was downgraded and the trade became profitable this morning, but I promised my better half I would hold it until oversold on the 30-day chart. At least I will have the gratification of whining at him if the trade ends up as a realized loss. 10:07 a.m.: Short DRI @ 34.42, pull back from overbought. Trailed a stop which was hit for a $20 gain. Just as well, as the price turned up further, testing and breaking thru the HOD. 11:09 a.m.: Short NEM @ 43.85, practicing scalping based on L2 action. Covered a tad soon @ 43.77 for a $40 gain. I actually was enticed by this one @ 44.05, pullback from bumping its head against the 10-period SMA, but I hesitated before entering. Iâm a slowpoke. 11:53 a.m.: Another NEM scalp @ 44.22, pullback from overbought. Covered based on L2 action @ 44.11 for a $57 gain, bottom of the move. 12:21 p.m.: Short NEM @ 44.28 approaching overbought and looking weak on the L2. It dropped .10, then turned, so I exited @ 44.38 for a $50 loss. Solid exit point as it went on to retest the HOD. 12:56 p.m. Short DRI @ 34.82 failure to make a new high, stop @ 35.03. Covered @ 34.65 oversold and a couple pennies from previous resistance of 34.63, for a $90 gain. 34.63 was the final low of the day, proving yet again that 90% of traders follow the same signals 2:03 p.m.: Short DRI @ 34.97, overbought, near HOD. Covered @ 34.86, pivot in L2 action, for a $57 gain. Was watching NEM make a nice run up to new highs, got some food, worked on some stuff with my husband and ended up missing the best short of the day! Bought AAPL puts, looking for some retracement of this last move through resistance. Sold some NFLX APR $45 calls.
- $1524 Wow, broke a 2 1/2 month winning streak with one badly managed trade (it was initially $300 profitable, ended $1700 loss). Interesting open for me, and serendipitously positive. Just prior to open I offered 36.60 HANS. I decided that since I had capital tied up with NFLX calls, I wanted to close out ORLY to free up more day trading capital. Upon open I saw ORLY dropping and placed a limit order which unbeknownst to me was placed at the 36.60 default number from my HANS order, instead of the 32.60 I intended to place. I saw â36.60â and my mind must've tricked me into seeing â32.60â, and since it was the open it didnât fill right away. So while I was unaware that my limit order was immediately triggered and lined up to fill at market whenever its turn came, ORLY became profitable and I opened the order and was about to change it to 32.75 to get filled at a small profit when it suddenly lit up @ 32.98. Took a $170 loss, but not complaining because this was a poorly executed trade (I scaled into a short while it was in an oversold condition on the 30-day chart), and a poorly managed trade (I failed to exit when it pulled back to 33.20 after producing a nice profit on the IB portion of the trade, then failed to exit yesterday when it was profitable). Also I covered .25-odd cents from the LOD, and it had a strong rally after that, so good riddance! AAPL calls not working at all as expected. I had a chance to lock in a $300 profit yesterday and didnât, because I was looking to the longer term move. Then today I realized that I was exercising expectation again, the traderâs worst enemy! I decided that I would simply not trade like that anymore and I put in a stop and didnât look back. This was a very poorly managed trade. Iâm very pleased to have drawn my line in the sand today, protecting my monthâs gains. Mistakes on this trade: 1. Not locking in or taking profits early yesterday at oversold. 2. Especially since resistance was being tested for the 3rd time (best to have waited for the test to demonstrate the price direction) Locking in my profit or at least b/e yesterday wouldâve given me a chance at far better re-entry on the trade. Overall I had confidence in the retracement, but decided I would not hold a negative trade on expectation ever again. And if I do, every one of you can slap me upside the head! My HANS offer was lifted almost at the high of the open @ 36.60 and it dropped very quickly. In fact I didnât even realize it had dropped so hard until someone mentioned it. I covered on the hard bounce off oversold 36.30 for a $150 gain, meant to short again on the bounce, then it dropped hard again. Short HANS @ 36.57 overbought. It pulled back a bit several times then broke through the HOD. I wouldâve shorted more there, but I wonât have large PDT capital to work with until tomorrow, so stayed conservative in size. End of day targeted 36.34 because I didnât want to hold overnight and tie up capital. Broke right through for a $115 gain. Midday, my husband asked what to trade, all excited because he now has open book (L3). Called DRI @ 35.97, he got short @ 35.94 and rode it to 35.50, enjoying his book the whole way. He then traded gleefully the rest of the afternoon, putting a nice dent in my dayâs losses. MISH JAM trade (Moon in the Seventh House, Jupiter Aligned with Mars): Short SNDK @ 12.19, overbought, failure to make a new high, SPY overbought, beautiful setup in all regards, stop @ 12.29 HOD. Moved stop to b/e, then trailed it. Was patient with the first bounce off the 20-period SMA and round number 12.00, then later covered @ 11.93 pivot off oversold and previous support for a $130 gain. Why I wasnât as patient for a breakdown of that support Iâm not sure. I guess if Iâd had a larger position, wouldâve taken off half and let half go. I instinctively traded 500 shares not even thinking that I normally trade 1K-2K shares of such a low priced stock. Other than poor management of the AAPL position yesterday, I was quite pleased with my trading today!
After waiting an excruciatingly long 2 1/2 months to see a loss posted by "the one", I'm left, strangely enough, unsatisfied by it. In fact, I have the same feeling in my gut that I had on the day I discovered there really wasn't a Santa Claus. I need a beer and a hit from the bong.