Thanks for your warning, Bob. I am much more careful now than I was even a month ago. When I trade a stock that's not close to a major long term S/R level, I set a tight stop (shorting DRI below 29.00 for example). And now, when I short these stocks that are overbought near 52-week highs, I'm way more conservative on the allowable drawdown. For example, late today when ORLY ran hard against me off new highs no less, I had my finger on the eject button ready to go at very specific price level, and it came quite close, too, before reversing nicely.
So the big question is, to stick to pre-trade-determined profit targets? Or not? Or is it a shade of grey? Good advice 1R. It'll definitely be interesting when that bull does come back. Interesting times...
Mad, I think profit targets are important because it means you entered the trade with a plan on a meaningful setup. But overall market movement and Level 2 action sometimes dictate an earlier or later exit, and it's wise to listen to their message.
True, but what about the reverse "I should have let it run" situations, like CF this morning? Or PNC for me back then? What about when sitting tight like Livermore said is the way to go? I think we can agree that stops should not be modified, unless they are moved in your favor. But can you say the same about profit targets?
I simply don't have the experience behind me to address letting profits run. I'm not real good at it yet! What seems sensible is, if the price action (or pull of the market) leads you to believe a profit target was set too conservatively, exit half the position at your target, place a trailing stop for the rest and see where it takes you. I have a question for you guys who shorted CF today: They gapped up big on a $72/share buyout offer. Why did you expect it to drop rather than rise closer to that offer price?
+ $460 Was doing many things today in between watching and studying (mainly SPY and GS), so did not trade a lot. Placed HOTT target of 9.09 and HOTT bounces off 9.10. Yesterday I missed exit by .01 cent. Amazing. It moves up, keeps finding higher support, but canât even manage a 50% retracement of the drop, so I figured weakness while the market's moving up this morning meant a new low is coming, so I left my target in place, and waited very patiently for the bit-by-bit fill for a $250 gain minus all the commissions for scaling in 3 legs and using ARCA to exit. Later in the day OCR takes a huge dump from 27.00 to 21.00 despite strong earnings and upside guidance, so I put on some Mar $25 calls and was moving a profit target up as the price gained, but it was suddenly snapped up for a $250 gain before I could get the price moved. Then I didnât want to chase back into the position because of the spread. I really put on this trade for a larger move, or I wouldâve traded the stock. Covered my old ORLY shares @ 32.49, because it found very strong support there near dayâs end. Looking to short again above 33.00. And so I end the day flat for a change!
Hey, I just realized this was a loooong trade! First one in I don't know how long. And my palms didn't even sweat!!!
I just have to reiterate how great your insights are for people trying to get a glimpse into the mind of a trader who is going through those "break through" moments in their trading career. I hope everyone knows how hard it is to be trading in this base, and Nodoji is rockin it. Can't wait to see you trade in a trending market (although you may have to take some more longs) Keep it up!