On the early POT trades, my positions were 100 shares. On the AAPL breakout, my position was 400 shares because it had established very strong support and kept sniffing that breakout zone, so I wanted to capture at least $40 in case it was a failed breakout. On my POT counter-trend trade, my size was 400 shares because it was a lower high, which is a confirmed reversal signal. I'm comfortable with 400 shares now as long as it's a high probability setup. Automated trading was actually tested live one day last week with 20 share lots, came out about break even and Mr. NoD has been tweaking again. You know how these programmers are...
Thanks OC! All these hours of screen time are presenting some very nice patterns that I see again and again. One pattern is that when a trend is established the trend followers (or trend following programs) defend it in a big way. There really was no reason for me to exit the AAPL breakout when I did because that trend stayed intact forever! Same with my early POT trades. Once the double bottom was put it it was up, up, up all day, except for a small counter-trend correction that I took advantage of. It took me a long time, but I finally am coming to understand what bighog was trying to drum into my head again and again. I will really feel like I've moved to the next level when I can put on a position like the POT setup early in the day and just keep adding to it on every pullback to the moving average that doesn't break down. How nice it would be to end a trend day with a 1000-share built up position closed out for a $3000 gain. In fact, I may start doing this in sim so I get a feel for it and confidence in the strategy.
Doji.... take it easy... get really good at what you ahve doen this week then look to bhuy 1000 shares addd throughout the day for a 1-3 dollar move! DON'T get too big too soon!!!!!!! I did try and get you to go bigger lasst week and you did it yourself and it is wworkign out well for you.. but it has only been a few days.. stick to what is working and stop looking at that automated shit... seriously.. do what you are doing and hone those skills.. sitting in fron of the computer is not that bad of a job.. especially if u are making 160K to 200K a year with no boss, no office, etc. Show us a month where you average $ 500 a day net.. so thats 20 trading days= $ 10,000 NET.. then get a little bigger. Stick with what is working.. and focus primarily on that.. stop worrying about automated and other strategies.. just do what you are doing and it will pay you.. why mess with a good thing. MAKE THIS EASIER NOT HARDER... it should get to a point where it is actually boring to trade.. serioulsy .. yeah it's fun to make DOUGH.. but the tradign part is not nearly as action packed as everyone believes when you are doing right. GOOD JOB!!! p.s. When i notice myself beign extemly happy with my performance and I am on a winnign streak.. and i a thikning about all the big big money that is our there.. this is WHEN I REDUCE MY SIZE UNTIL MY EGO IS BACK TO NORMAL! Be careful and be consitent before beign large.. look what happened to starbucks.. overexpanded too quickly.. boston market same thing. In and out burger.. still privately held..they do not sell fanchsies and is very slowly but surely expanding it's store base... You are doing very well though.. i just want to see it continue!! Mike
Bos, it's true! I must confess I just found myself gazing at charts of PCP, and checking upcoming IPOs to see when METH would finally go public...
Do you enter trades after a specific bar acts as a confirmation or do you enter trades in general areas? For instance a stock in an uptrend pulls back to it's MA and hovers there. Would you buy it in that area, or do you wait for a strong green bar to appear before buying? I was also curious where you put your stops. Are you so precise that you can put them 1 tick below the bar you enter on, or do you put them below important pivots, support, resistance levels? I'm having a helluva time with stops. I try just below my entry bar and get stopped out, re-enter, stopped out, re-enter...............now even if I was right about the direction I'm well in the hole for nothing. I try wider stops and they seem to get hit too. I try no stops and that's a really bad thing for me. Very frustrating game sometimes.
macattack.. use smaller size and no stops.. i f you are any good at forecasting prices then you will succeed!
But even if I'm good at forecasting price sooner or later I'm going to be dead wrong. If I have no stop when do I get out? Where do I draw the line? I could start off down 2, then down 5, down 10, down 20, down 30.
In your example, I watch for price action first at the 10-bar MA. If buyers come in, I'd join them with my stop below that entry bar. If stopped out and price moves to the 20-bar MA and buyers come in, I'd join them again, with my stop below that entry bar. If stopped out again, that means the 20 was broken and I would watch for a lower high at that point because the trend isn't strong enough to hold up well. When watching for price action at the 10- and 20MA on my 3-min chart, I'm also watching the 1-min chart. This is where I see the first buyers come in and the stochastics at that point should be oversold on the 1-min. Once the fast stoch line pivots from oversold as buyers come in, I'm quick to enter. Vice versa for shorting in a down trend. I was also curious where you put your stops. Are you so precise that you can put them 1 tick below the bar you enter on, or do you put them below important pivots, support, resistance levels? I'm having a helluva time with stops. I try just below my entry bar and get stopped out, re-enter, stopped out, re-enter...............now even if I was right about the direction I'm well in the hole for nothing. I try wider stops and they seem to get hit too. I try no stops and that's a really bad thing for me. Very frustrating game sometimes. [/QUOTE] Stops have been my nemesis, but they are now my best friend. If you try the strategy I just outlined above, you can usually place a stop just below/above the entry bar. If the price action's been whippy, then you may want to place the stop just outside previous support or resistance. Wider stops are needed if you choose to enter a trade early or if you chase a late entry. I get very frustrated when whippy action keeps stopping me out, but if the setup's still intact I will continue to pound the entry until it sticks or the setup is voided by major opposing price action. My biggest problem has been moving stops to break even too soon, getting stopped out, then watching the trade move very nicely without me. I now wait until a significant move into the green has occurred before moving my stop to b/e. I then use the 1-min chart with the 3-min chart to guide my exit at a target zone. If price is moving with more momentum than I expected I will tighten the stop at my initial target, then trail a limit further on. It's always nicest to get your limit order hit than to be stopped out, but sometimes the tighter stop near my target zone works very well to get me out close to the reversal. Because of the way I trade, I would not trade without a hard stop. It keeps me honest and protects at least a little bit against insane rogue price moves. My biggest rule, and I am pleased to have honored it for a long time now, is ONLY move stops in my favor.
you can try using fibonacci levels to forecast the move from your entry point; so you know your most likely exits level ahead of time; you dont need to keep adjusting your stops too often. shocking fib video here. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=085KSyQVb-U&feature=PlayList&p=BDE4541E386B3A63&index=6