NoDoji's Day Trading Log

Nod, Friday was a one-way trend day. Some days just should not be shorted at all. Monday will be when the desks are filled with hot blood 1st string players and the new year will be offically underway.

overbought/oversold indicators work ok in sideways mkts but will burn your fingers on one-way days. This is an example of watching PRICE only as your guide in day trading. When watching price only the trader is not swayed toward their fav indicator when the characteristics of the mkt changes from SIDEWAYS to a TREND day.

Hope this helps

On trend days look for trend CONTINUATION signals to get back in if you took a profit when the previous leg slows down and looks to retrace. Most often one-way days will have 3 legs, be it a trend UP or a trend DOWN. Each leg will usually either consolidate and or retrace prior to the CONTINUATION. Your job is to recognize what phase a mkt is in and adjust your entry/exit signals accordingly.

As you progress you will hear stuff like mkts spend 70% of the time going sideways so you should do just range trades. Anyone that believes that is missing the boat because the money is made from the trend "RUNS". Range trading as a sole strategy is not doing battle on the front lines where the action is. Your job is to anticipate the next leg of a trend and be there or be square.

Have a good weekend, review some charts and look at the possibilities when going for the "RUNS". Heck, anybody can do some range trading when mkts are sideways as a fillin. You want some meat off the bone. later, charter cable just came.

 

Hog, we're in the chat room all day together. You are welcome to just yell at me any time.

Seriously, I totally agree that I need to work on trend following on days like yesterday. My most profitable day last week was when I was shorting on a down day and it was great - every trade going my way.

Now be sure to push the market down this week so I can exit my APOL short at a profit before they report earnings Thursday. I will NOT hold through earnings!

 

During the day you are trading stocks and i trade a stock index. I can pick up more of your strategy and tactics by reading your performance reports when the bullets are not flying.

This profession of price speculation is entirely different from any profession because we are more about unlearning what does not work than learning what works. Yes it sounds corny and many just fluff such a cliche off without giving it deep thought. We do not learn from others experience as much as we learn from ourself. First we must learn how to lose before we even have a chance to learning how to become a winner. In other professions if you learned how to lose first you would be out the door. Lawyers today use case study when looking up how judges have ruled in prior similar cases. Surgeons follow the hospitals procedure to perform a hip surgery. A professional athlete must combine his/her talents with the rules of the game they play to develope their skills. You get the picture.

That and that alone is why i firmly believe many never understand how to develope the skills to win in a losers game. Kids that are still popping zits come from or in college and want to be a winner by reinventing the wheel. They only see the money. They have never been told in life that the hardest game in town is getting the money from the other persons pocket into yours. they were always told to study hard and get good grades, kiss someones ass and all the marbles will roll right.

Traders must learn what does NOT work when all the rest of the world must learn what will work first. Then the trader can UNLEARN what will not work and work on what WILL work. The average smuck out there are not up to the task.

In chat try to pay attention about what some of us say as we ATTEMPT to get the direction of the mkt as a whole. thats why in my opinion it is easier to follow a single stock index rather then a pile of individual stocks. that pile of stocks will be influenced by the FLOW of the mkt

PS: Cardinals beat the rednecks from HOTlanta. Way tro go.
PSS: Looking forward to the NEW DEAL for 2009, trade more products, more of a challenge.

 

Well say Hog!

 

-$218

FSLR opened lower and I thought about taking $100 profit on the put, but really expected more downside based on the 30-day chart, so left my 20% stop in place instead. It rallied and took out my stop with slippage for a $220 loss. It’s frustrating to give up a profit and end up with a loss, but part of the game.

APOL dropped close to my target cover price and I was sure it would dip a bit more and fill, but instead it bounced and rallied very hard, and to be honest it exceeded my planned exit price when it topped 79.00, but was so massively overbought at that point I strapped in and held on tight. They report earnings this week and maintaining such strength in a down market had me concerned, despite the fact that EVERY DAY this stock plays in the 76’s. It dropped very hard from the 79.00 area, so I decided I would wait it out another day, as long as it didn’t make a new high today. It made a couple weak attempts at another rally, but basically drifted down all afternoon, finally hitting my cover target for a $100 gain, and promptly moving up again, though not nearly to the day’s high.

This trade was a strong learning experience. I had a very profitable day on 12/29 and planned to call it a day, but saw APOL make a run up and shorted a base position figuring I’d add to it if it tested recent highs, cover at a profit if not. I had many chances since then to add to the position and cover at a profit, but didn’t. Finally I added to the position on Friday and it immediately ran further against me, proving that "She who hesitates is lost." I firmly believed in the trade and was certain it would eventually retest the 76’s, but with earnings coming I was left in an uncomfortable position if it didn’t. What I learned is, as usual swing trades are not my forte; I’m much better at day trading. If I’d been very strict with loss management on this position as I am when day trading, I could have played it again and again for many profits over the past few days, rather than limiting my trading capital by holding.

Shorted DRI @ 29.18 with a tight stop after a lower high and overbought at a re-test of that lower high. It dropped immediately and I covered @ 28.95 for a $115 gain when oversold and reached trend line target. It bounced a bit on the pivot and I was hoping it would set up another short, but suddenly it fell to new daily lows. Quite a bit of profit left behind on this one.

SQNM nice run up, consolidation, then another run up, so I shorted @ 22.66 when overbought, small position with tight stop @ 22.86 because it had made a new high and I set tight stops when "top picking". Stopped out for a $108 loss.

Shorted TIF @ 25.52 on failure to make a new high, tight stop @ 25.72. Failed to grab profits on oversold condition because I thought there was more downside coming. Paid the price when my stop got hit on rally with slippage for a $129 loss.

Shorted TIF again @ 25.74 when the run up pivoted down, stop @ 25.99 major resistance. Finally after some stagnation it dropped nicely and I used a trend line to cover @ 25.51 for a $115 gain. The trend line took me within .03 cents of the bottom of that move!

 

+ $450

Shorted TIF @ 25.81 when it failed to make a new high, covered on oversold pivot @ 25.68 for a $65 gain. Pivot failed and I ended up leaving $250+ more on the table.

Shorted APOL @ 79.00 on a very weak attempt to test previous resistance. Covered @ 78.60 less than 2 minutes later for a $200 gain.

Shorted WYE @ 38.59, overbought at the top of large run up. Covered @ 38.49 oversold for a $50 gain.

Shorted APOL @ 79.15 on failed attempt to test previous resistance, set trend line cover target of 78.85 which was filled for a $150 gain.

Then news across the wire that higher education companies will suffer in 2009 and as APOL tanked down to 77.16, I shorted again @ 77.35 and wasn’t fast enough to grab profits on the further drop, so ended up holding with the intention of adding upon a retest of 79.00 or waiting for target of 77.25 to be filled, which it was later in the day for a $50 gain.

Shorted TIF @ 25.45 looking weak at test of previous resistance. I didn’t wait for test of HOD because I planned to add to the position if it did test the HOD. Added to the position near HOD for an average price of 25.66, holding.

I realize that patience for test of HOD on the last TIF short would've provided a nice quick profit and I might do better to only take those setups. Tough call though, because often they don't make it back to the HOD/LOD and you miss the move altogether, as I did with DRI late today.

 

Seems we suffer the same syndrome. Its hard for me to see longs, even when the market is clearly going up, up, up. Don't fight the tape. Yet I will, and do, every trending up day despite.

I did a self trade audit recently, and I go short 95% of the time. I love shorting, but the skew is well too much weighted to the short side. I can't neglect the long side!

Good work today........But, don't forget the long trades on up trending days.........as I know I probably will.........

 

LMAO I said to my husband not an hour ago, "You know, I think I've only had one long trade in over a month. I really need to play both sides of the market."

(I did go long DRYS @ 3.48 in our IRAs in late November. Almost a 5-bagger so far )

 

+ $638

Ready to take advantage of morning volatility on my TIF short and, whoa, on market open my TIF chart shows nothing, the level II is not printing and the bid/ask is wide and changing all over the place, so I figure no one’s biting. My watch list shows the last trade locked at yesterday’s close. Trading platform obviously screwed up. So I enter a random cover target based on a bid I saw at open and got filled for a $400 gain. Restarted the PC and although the chart did not refresh the morning action, everything was back to normal. Had I been able to track accurate data, I would likely have held for a larger profit.

Shorted SQNM @ 23.87, overbought failure to make a new high. It stagnated for quite some time and since it was still some distance from the HOD and appeared strong, I covered @ 23.85 for b/e.

Watching CAL test HOD and smelled a further breakout, which it did. It retested the new HOD and I shorted @ 21.59, looking for a scalp because it appeared still strong. I was watching level II in the trade and covered @ 21.49 for a $50 gain, totally missing the exact double top formation on the chart, which is a very strong short signal. Left $$ all over the place on this one.

Shorted SVU @ 17.17 when it attempted to crack the HOD and pulled back. Covered @ 17.03 from oversold pivot for a $67 gain. There was a bit more downside to this one and good to re-short @ 17.10, but it was quite jumpy today and I didn’t want to take a chance.

Saw DRI test a previous resistance point, reach overbought and drop. Decided to short in the middle of the trend for a change instead of picking a top. Shorted @ 27.96, tight stop @ 28.16, figuring that would indicate a change of downward sentiment. Moved stop to 28.10 when it formed such a tight consolidation around 28.00 for so long that I actually viewed the Bollinger Bands to help pass the time. Finally, it broke to the upside taking me out @ 28.09 for a $64 loss. Very frustrating and my fault for moving my original stop. Had I left the original stop in place, DRI never topped 28.13 before dropping beautifully through the afternoon.

Shorted APOL on overbought test of day’s resistance and got a terrible fill with slippage. Thought my price was 78.03 going in at market but filled immediately @ 77.87. Never had that happen before on APOL. So I placed a tight cover target near the last support area and got filled for a $50 gain, only to have the price break down HUGELY all afternoon.

FFIV hitting highs all day. Late day test of resistance and just barely hits a new HOD of 23.76, pulls back a tiny bit and retests 23.76, and I short @ 23.68 on the pivot down, and cover oversold @ 23.41 for a $135 gain. Classic double top put to use in the direction of the market for a very quick gain.

FFIV moves up again and I short @ 23.49, stop @ 23.62. Covered oversold @ 23.39 for a $50 gain. Again could’ve left original stop and reaped nice additional profit.

Shorted FFIV again @ 23.53 on a strong bounce. Set very tight stop @ 23.56 because it ran up on heavy end of day buying which is often institutional buying, so I didn’t want to toss profits needlessly out the door. Trailed stop down to 23.41, which was hit on a quick bounce from 23.30 for a $61 gain.

LESSON based on all trades today: When trading in the direction of the market, the market is in your favor! Leave original stops in place or move to b/e and be patient! If I’d left all my original stops in place today, I would’ve netted 4 times the profit.

I reviewed my FSLR put trade from the other day and realized that my error was not waiting until the next day to put it on. The end of the day I shorted FSLR left a big green maribosu - large solid bar, no wicks, no indecision, the bulls clearly in control. Although my rationale for shorting was sound, I needed confirmation and jumping in early left me exposed to having my 20% option stop hit. Had I waited until the next day, I could’ve shorted at a much better price (stochastic cross down on the 30-day) and made a nice profit. Solid trade setup, poor execution due to lack of patience with the timing.

 

Just for fun, here is the TIF chart I had to work with this morning (and no Level II). Includes pic of Tiffany the Trader herself