+ $264 Weekend news that ANFâs new flagship store in Italy left empty cash registers behind, plus weak price action, plus the fact that it failed to rally with the market invited a short @ 39.93 average price. Covered @ 39.48 pivot off oversold for +$264. ES @ 1110 winked at me so hard from across the dance floor and I simply couldnât bring myself to short it, thinking the weak dollar and good housing news would surely drive the market to 1120 on a sudden surge to trap anyone who dared to short the stalled action @ 1110. Key word here is âthinkingâ. Anyone whoâs followed this journal knows that thinking is deadly to day traders. This failure to act quickly and decisively was my regret of the day⦠Had several things to attend to after that, which was just as well because the market was in the range/chop after the opening surge, which tends to churn away profits. Sim traded gold (GC) today, first the Jan contract (the spread made me realize maybe I should be trading Dec), then Dec, both profitable trades despite not even looking at a chart. I traded based on the way the price was moving on the DOM. If the price moved up a lot then started moving down, I shorted. Is trading really this easy? Are all my charts, MAâs, Keltners, volume and stochs completely unnecessary??? Later offered 39.59 ANF when it found support and moved to test previous resistance, looking to scalp .20 cents or so, but it did not get there before dropping quite nicely from .48. Oh well, canât catch them all. They're ex-div tomorrow so didn't want to do anything except catch a quick scalp, though I believe this one's headed to the 36's in the near term. ES winked at me again on the 2nd leg up from late day support to 1105.00 where it stalled briefly above the upper channel line, but I was certain weâd get one of those end of day rallies after price drifts down all day. No, Maâam, that was indeed a fine short entry, good for 3+ pts straight down past the overshoot of the lower channel line. I guess the lesson today is donât worry about what happened yesterday, or last week or what the news is or whatever, just take the signal, put on the trade, put in the stop and take a bathroom break.
Yep! Intuition supersedes thinking............ You will get to where you see something on the chart and say to yourself............. Ok, price will go up when it gets up to (or down to) that number and everyone that matters will be looking at what i am seeing. We will at least have very good odds of a breakout to nail some STOPS and if no follow through i will get out at this or that price within so and so minutes. Thats the intuitive part of getting in, the rest of the trade depends on your ability to interpret the momentum of price and your risk management intuition. Intuition matters, FEAR gets in the way for awhile but should disipate as time moves on. Fear remembers the BAD, intuition remembers the GOOD.
+ $190 I didnât want to trade until after the consumer sentiment numbers, but I do regret not taking the short signal when price left a couple small shooting stars in pre-market attempting and failing to break through the premarket high of 1107.00. Later after the news I noticed that whack-a-mole action when price rallied to 1102.00, sold off, then tried again and sold off 1100.50. It had that price action feel like the other day, so I shorted 2 @ 1099.00 and covered @ 1097.00 on the pivot from near the news-driven LOD for +$190. Sim traded GC (gold) again today, with a chart this time. The chart definitely helps a lot. Also, still sim trading CL, narrowing my favorite plays out of several strategies.
Looks like 1100x is being defended. Tomorrow could get a pop either way if we sink below 1100x and get todays low of 1095x or push above todays high at 1107x
Good job, I made money today using my own system. I think I will also look at some other markets in the future to see if my system can work on them. I am thinking wheat or corn. When I was in a trade, I set the target and stop and went away, which helped. It also helped saying to myself if I have a stop set at such a distance for equal risk vs reward I need to not touch my target, and I was able to hold to my target this time. I do wish I added more contracts when I saw more confirmations that the trade was working. I think this will be the main modification I will try in that I will add more contracts when I have a higher probability trade and less when I don't. Do you add more when you have a higher probability trade? I was thinking of you when I shorted at 1106. I was thinking, I wonder if Nodoji's sees this price and is shorting with me. I don't top pick, I had multiple over sold indicators going off at that price. Just looking back at that trade, I think I saw price action. I tried to think if I was long would I start to panic and get out.
1106.00 was a sweet one, agreed, and I should've been there with at least 2, because that was such a favorite setup for me. Glad you got some! I made a commitment to trade larger size when the probability is higher. I thought the failure to thrive this morning where previous support became resistance was a strong enough short signal to trade 2 instead of my usual 1, but it's a thin week and not much seems to push the market to either extreme.
+ $8 Short ANF @ 39.93 pullback from lower high, stopped out on the pivot off low for +$8. I then sim traded GC and CL on and off through the day. I'm still leaving massive amounts of profits behind by not staying in "runs". I have too much scalping mentality on days like today when it was a strong trend day for both futures. Played both directions, long and short, but did not stay with the longs long enough! Have a great Thanksgiving all!
nodoji, I was working yesterday afternoon, I posted an analysis to Robert Weinstin's site, http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=126492&perpage=6&pagenumber=197 you do not need believe it. my stle is when people sleep, I work. when people sleep, I work. the opening and the closing is the best place to make money!