I also woke up late after staying up all night, did make a tiny amount of real money. I think I will stop at the pharmacy and see if they have some sleeping pills.
Sim traded CL in the morning for four scalps +$448. The 4th trade was short @ 80.32 pullback from a new high but only very slightly higher than the previous high. This one ran against me at first and came within 1 tick of my stop, so I was nervous and covered @ 80.18 when it pivoted briefly near the rising 20 EMA. I figured it would jump right up to a new high just as it did at the 20 on the previous leg up. I took a break and came back later and it was in the low 79.00âs on its way to the low 78.00âs. So there I was short almost at the pivot high and because I was in scalping mode, missed a great large move. I looked at the chart and realized that the short @ 80.32 was well worth swinging because it was a 5th push from the pivot low overnight and price generally reverses after that many legs in one direction. Later, long CL @ 78.01 off the double bottom and sat on my hands, not touching my stop until price hit the 20 EMA. Out @ 78.35, leaving a whole lot more move on the table, too, but I was in scalping mode the whole time I've sim traded CL. Someone on the ES Journal thread posted a SPY put trade and Iâd been thinking about SPY puts all week as a long term swing trade. I brought up the L2 for Nov $110âs and it was fantastic, a .01 spread and so incredibly liquid you could move in and out of 100 cars at market if you wanted to. The big moves of the morning were done, but I scalped two moves in sim to get a feel for it for +$439 (left a quick $1000 more on the table) and $205 (only left $500 on the table with that one). On the second trade I moved my order twice and found out just how much IB charges for those âchange order feesâ. Awful commission cost on that one. This made me realize the importance of letting winners run (allowing a run fully to the opposite stochastic spectrum wouldâve been perfect on both trades).
Funny you should meantion that. I had an bid in for 10000 SPY put contracts...and I got them all in a single fill. BANG! This sim trading is EXTREMELY AWESOME!!
+ $150 Sim traded ES and did a horrendous job of letting profits run. Shorted @ 1102.75 pullback from the failed breakout, covered @ 1100.50 on the pivot off the 20 EMA. If Iâd left my initial stop loss in place and sat on my hands, I wouldâve captured that beautiful drop into the low 1090.00âs. I guess I couldâve reshorted on the bounce to the upper channel line, but I didnât because by then⦠⦠I saw ANF wink at me from across the dance floor and I know and love ANF so I shorted @ 38.10 on the second failed attempt to make a new high. Knowing how I waste so much commission every time I trade ANF with little scalps, I decided to sit in this trade with my stop @ b/e until it made three pushes down. Failure to make a new high almost always results in a reversal with 3 pushes down and I was going to see just how patient I could be. The trade became profitable right away then turned, leaving a large hammer behind. I nervously stuck with it as long as it didnât break out through the falling 20 EMA. The second leg down left a very small hammer, but the pullback to the EMA did not reach previous resistance. A very nice third leg down ensued and with price reaching 1 cm below the 20 on a 3rd push down, I covered on the pivot @ 37.34 for +$150. So thatâs how a trend follower does it. Each pullback was annoying to me emotionally (wanted to capture profits quickly), but the nice big profit with small commission costs was gratifying when all was said and done. Not wanting to churn away my profits in the midday mush, I took the dog to the park. Returned to see that ANF had left yet another lower high and resumed the downtrend to make a new low. I guess one can be even more patient in an intraday trend than I was today, but then again I have implanted in my trading mind âBears make money and bulls make money, but pigs get slaughtered.â I saw ES make a 4th attempt to break through the upper channel line in its range, but having seen this slow midday creep in the price action each day lead to a rally, I hesitated to put on a short position. I have a tendency to let previous trades and previous action exert undue influence on me at times and this was one of those times. Three failures to resume the retracement of the drop was definitely a good short signal with a low-risk stop zone. Some of it Iâm sure had to do with the fact that I had a nice ANF profit showing and didnât want to risk any of it on a setup less than my ideal setup.
âBears make money and bulls make money, but pigs get slaughtered.â But do not forget......Agression works. Well lets say it works some of the time. I always remember reading somewhere that George Soros would ask his head trader Stanly Druckenmiller how he liked his position in say duetschmarks. Stanley would say i like it very much. George would ask how much he had in the position and Stanley would give him a figure. George would say, "you call that a position?" The pilots that made "ACE" were the aggressive pilots. The bottom line about heros in war or most anything else in life is they were/are FEARLESS. Audie Murphy was unreal fearless going after the "huns". Today was a day to remember the heros of WW11. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tuY1qfCqxT8&feature=related "He's got more guts than sense" Great line, :eek:
So what you're saying is, it's time for me to move back to trading 2000 shares instead of 200. Yeah, I guess a $1500 profit would make for a nice day's work
No, no, not until you are ready. I still do not trade as AGGRESSIVE as i should. Just saying in general it works once you have good tactics. Some of us are simply born to be more fearless than others. Youth comes with "wonder", wonder to explore, to seek, to challenge, seek adventure, etc, etc. How cool would it be to be a trader with the nerve of a 12 year old? I think we all can agree that many are more inclined to take more risk than others even if the skill levels were egual. That is one of the many human traits some are flat born with. I believe in evolution of species in general. Humans can be leaders or followers..............environment has a lot to do about it, also how we grew up matters. Some of us were street wise, some were sheltered. PS: Aggression in a game of chance like trading or going to Vegas is individual. Yes skill matters but thats part of the learning curve. Aggression is part of the "ART" side.
+$400 The schizoid action on the job numbers left me with no taste for the ORB. I felt the market was too toppy to break out hard to the upside and too strong to break down hard to the down side. I decided instead to play with my fave, ANF, larger size. Short ANF @ 37.43 quick pullback from double top overbought, covered @ 37.02 for +$200. Sim traded CL for a while, as usual consistently leaving money on the table by trailing stops too close. Finally, found a decent strategy in bracketing the order and placing a limit near the next S/R zone and just leaving the initial stop in place; whichever filled first canceled the other and that was that. I put on a bracketed trade, left my office and returned to see my Realized P&L larger. This was a great to avoid the slippage of getting stopped out of the trade. At some point I really am going to trade this thing live⦠Later, short ANF @ 37.52 momentum drop off failed break out through the new HOD, covered @ 37.11 pivot off oversold for +$200. I had to laugh that both trades ended up being the exact same net profit. I canât ever bring myself to trade ANF to the long side of its swings, because I have a personal bias that a retail stock should not be trading at a P/E of 70, so I always feel like itâs gonna puke when itâs near lows. I should know better than that with a short interest of 15% (probably higher now that it was upgraded and made new highs recently). After those moves, the chop zone ensued and I backed away from my trading platformâ¦
I am very pleased with having discovered the value of stochastics last fall. My trading stabilized and turned net profitable beginning last November once I began using stochs to guide my trades. Many people vehemently warn against using stochs because overbought and oversold can run much further than stochs indicate. I think thatâs an unfair assessment of this tool. When combined with overall trend and next support and resistance levels, stochs can be excellent confirmation of a pending pivot. Whatâs important is to ignore them in a strong trend. Once a strong trend demonstrates weakness via its first LH or HL, that becomes the signal for possible reversal. But stochs are fantastic in wider ranges and trending ranges. I donât use stochs with my futures charts, but I do use them on a small reference chart of SPY. Theyâre very helpful for providing confluence on the trade. Once price makes a HL or LH, itâs important to either follow the new trend or allow the price action to unfold for a while before making a decision whether the old trend is still intact. If Iâve been shorting a stock at each pullback to the falling MA (or holding a short position through those moves as long as price continues to make new lows, like I did yesterday with ANF), and then a higher low is put in, I should not short again EVEN if the stochs indicate overbought, because now price should begin testing each previous resistance level and can move quite a way before again reversing to the short side. The MA will be your guide then because HLs and LHs force a pivot in the trajectory of the short-period MA. ANF chart attached to show how I used stochs and S/R to guide my trades.
I have had alot of success with Stochasitcs and yes the trend strength dictates the success. Additionally, the settings are very important. Can you or others tell me about how many trades (round turns) you make in a day say from 6-3 central time! thanks. im sure i m overtrading as i have mentioned before but i am being productive , making some money, but my stops, trailing stops are getting hit alot and i havent figured out how to manage the trailing stop. thanks.