NoDoji's Day Trading Log

- $181

Shorted HIG @ 16.20 after it established a high around 16.40, tested it twice and reached overbought stochastics and stalled. Could’ve taken a tiny profit but my plan was to have a stop at 16.50 and watch what transpired. It climbed to 16.40 yet again (I was surprised it would reach for it a 5th time), then pulled back. As usual when a trade moves against me at first, I get impatient and I exited @ 16.15 for a $25 gain when the stochastics reached oversold. Of course it continued all the way down to 15.88 before bouncing.

Shorted RMBS @ 13.65 close to the HOD and overbought. This was a very slow mover and the plan was to give it all day to drift downward. I set a stop above the HOD @ 13.80 and didn’t think about the trade until I was stopped out for a $75 loss. Turned out it actually dropped to 13.55 and I could’ve taken some small profit had I been watching it.

Shorted HIG again @ 16.25, same rational as before. Covered market @ 16.10 for a $75 gain when stochastics were reaching for oversold and it started to rebound. It was a weak attempt at rebounding and dropped all the way to 15.20. I was sick over the profits left on the table. Here was a case where setting the stop at b/e as I was doing yesterday would’ve been perfect.

I’ve been watching POT very carefully lately, trading it in me head based on some very predictable patterns: It makes a strong run up, then pulls back about 1.50-2.00. So I shorted a very small position @ 68.35. I figured with the HOD @ 68.95, it could run all the way to 69.50 and would likely pull back to 67.50, giving me a good range to work with. So with a mental sop at 69.55, I watched the price action and covered at 68.05 as soon as the stochastic touched the oversold line for a $60 gain in 2 minutes.

Shorted AMGN @ 15.95 upon failure to make a higher high. Used a trend line connecting day’s lows to determine a cover target of 57.80, which was filled for a gain of $75.

Shorted my favorite adrenaline pumper, MA, @ 143.19 in an overbought condition when it banged its head against the HOD and stalled. My mental stop was @ 143.95, just above the HOD. I entered this trade at market losing over .40 cents on MA’s large spread, but I always miss entries with this one if I don’t jump in. I set a profit target of 142.50, which was filled for a $138 gain, and that was almost the exact low of that entire move. The trend line worked beautifully as they have been for me since I discovered how to use them not long ago.

POT had a double top around 68.95 and that’s why I shorted them originally. They drifted down for quite some time and then pivoted off 66.42. They rallied to an overbought stochastic at 67.82 and stalled. I shorted at 67.60, but this was not a good entry point because the stock was now up trending off a much higher low and therefore would very likely test resistance. I was hoping to catch a small move off the stall, but it only dropped a few pennies before continuing the move up. Instead of exiting immediately at that point, I thought about the 1.50-2.00 pullbacks it usually has and placed a mental stop at the HOD of 68.95. However, once I noticed the stochastic cross up at 68.50, I exited immediately for a $178 loss because when the stochastics cross against you in the middle of the trend you’re trading, this is a huge red flag to get out. This was not a high probability trade and I should have waited for a test of the HOD before even considering a short at that point.

So I waited for that test and shorted again @ 68.95 in an overbought condition and set a tight stop @ 69.20. I was stopped out for a $55 loss. It did pull back to 68.33 before the end of day rally, so in this case I simply set the stop too close, but I was mad about giving up profits on the previous one. Ahh, the psychology of trading can be so difficult.

Now things weren’t so bad at this point, but then I made the mistake of the day. MA broke through the HOD of 143.80, pulled back a bit and bounced off the HOD meaning previous resistance had become support. This is a LONG signal. I missed it completely. All I saw was that it re-tested the new high and then stalled and I figured since it was near the end of the day there would be a selloff and I shorted it at 144.14. The key words here are “I figured”. Day traders should not be thinking! They must use their technical analysis and discipline to put on good trades and manage them well. So I missed the “resistance now support” signal on the chart because I was thinking, and then I a) failed to take the small profit offered me, then further failed by waiting too long after the stochastics crossed up to exit, leaving me with a $120 loss.

I’ve included the MA chart today to point out the good trade and the bad trade all in one.

 

Nodoji,

Something else you will notice in your MA chart is that it knocked on the HOD 3 times and was turned away. I've seen this pattern A LOT. When it breaks a level that has held like that, be prepared to go long or at least be very careful with a short. The pattern holds better if the tests are over a good period of time.

 

You are absolutely right. Each test of resistance actually weakens the ceiling, and any break through after a 3rd test is definitely a strong long signal. I was simply not paying attention to all the variables at the end of the day. Gotta stay focused!

 

+ $214

Planned to short AMGN on open, but didn’t get in quick enough, so I shorted it @ 57.94 while it moved in a narrow range between 57.75 and 58.00, looking for a .20 cent move. Placed target @ 57.74, which was filled for a $100 gain.

Playing around with POT again. Shorted a small position @ 70.48 when it tested the HOD for the 3rd time. Covered way too soon @ 70.25 for a $45 gain. Best short of the day was the 5th test of resistance. Wish I had stuck with POT all day.

Shorted AMGN again @ 58.20 and placed a stop @ 58.40 just above the HOD. Damn thing rallied hard quickly and took out my stop with slippage for a $115 loss. Instead of moving on, I watched carefully for the next possible short entry as it stalled in the 58.45 range and shorted again @ 58.41 this time. It moved down a bit and I set my stop to b/e. It suddenly broke to the upside, taking out my stop for basically a small commission cost.

Shorted HIG @ 16.20 and covered @ 16.08 for a $58 gain.

Shorted BBBY @ 25.64 and covered @ 25.50 for a $70 gain.

I had been keeping my eye on AMGN and when it hit new highs, I faded the rally with a market entry @ 58.78, just pennies from the HOD. Because the stock had put on so many strong surprise rallies, I exited at the first stall in the action for a $92 gain, instead of holding for the rest of the day and picking up an additional $750. The story of my life.

Shorted TIF @ 24.40, just pennies from the top of the rally, and covered way too early @ 24.25 for $74 gain. Another $600 left behind.

 

+ $112

I tried out some strategies today, racking up commissions and making Etrade happy.

None of my usual suspects were setting up this morning so I watched the hi/lo ticker and MSFT caught my attention on the lo ticker. I never traded MSFT, so I took a quick peak at the 30-day chart and liked it. Nice tight trading range between $18-$21 and it throws great signals on the 3-minute chart. I decided to play with it and see what transpired. I went long at @ 18.90, but exited at market (18.83) when the expected bounce didn’t happen (it had been bouncing more strongly earlier). I put on a 1000-share position and really should’ve stayed smaller since I was just testing the MSFT waters at this point. I had to leave for an appointment, but decided to try MSFT once more just to get a feel for it because by then it had made a nice run up (wish I’d held my long instead of being so impatient). I shorted a smaller position @ 19.31 and covered quickly @ 19.25 because I had to leave.

Later, shorted HANS @ 29.00 when it broke the HOD and stochastics crossed down. The price fell and I placed a stop at b/e and decided to be very patient this time, as the market was weak at that point and the trend line off the previous two lows targeted
the 28 75 area for an exit. Almost an hour later, it reached my target area and I exited @ market for a $102 gain. I was pleased with how I trusted my analysis and stayed in the trade through a small bounce instead of bailing immediately.

I’ve been studying POT a lot and tried a short entering a market order for @ 67.11 fill after it tested the HOD and pulled back. It moved against me and I exited @ 67.37 for a $52 loss because a break through the HOD generally means a strong trend up. Sure enough it surged to 68.06 before pulling back nicely. In typical POT fashion, it dropped over $2/share after the run. I need to remember to give it a lot of room when I feel confident in the trade. In this case, however, the break thru the HOD was my signal to get out, though I should’ve been more focused and shorted again after the subsequent run up.

A short time later I decided to try a different strategy, instead of always getting in near tops and bottoms. I watched POT pull back from the HOD, stage a small bounce at oversold, then begin to fall again. I shorted in the middle of this second pull back @ 66.58, hoping to catch a piece of the trend down. It moved down to 66.46, then up again and I exited at b/e. Had I trusted that there was still more downtrend to go, I could have gritted my teeth as it rose to 66.85 before falling back 65.56, which would have produced a nice profit of nearly $200. This is why you have to give POT room, because it’s quite volatile, which creates large profit opportunities as well as large loss opportunities.

Saw BNI hitting a ridiculous price level on the lo ticker due to an analyst firm saying “sell”. Went long off the bounce @ 70.16 and took a quick $75 profit @ 70.31. I was supposed to be watching for the double bottom test, which will produce a great breakout, or if it fails, another large move down. But no, I moved on to HANS again, while BNI’s double bottom did indeed set up a beautiful run that I missed. An option would’ve been to place an OTO with a limit order for BNI @ the LOD, which would trigger a sell stop order just below the LOD. I will try that some time.

So while BNI was doing its thing without me, I shorted HANS again @ 28.95 after it failed to break the HOD. Then it actually attempted to break the HOD again, but could not make it and that mini double top was trigger down. At 28.72 I placed a market order to cover for a $115 gain, catching most of that move, as strong support had been established @ 28.65.

Had been keeping an eye on CAL today and saw it make a run toward the 15.40 HOD and fail @ 15.28. I immediately placed what I thought was a market order @ 15.25 and instead had placed a limit order with some random number in there, and by the time I corrected my error, the price I got was 15.17, but I still felt this was a good short regardless. It dropped to 15.02 and pivoted and I covered @ 15.06 market and got slippage on the damn thing, leaving me a $20 gain instead of $50, and of course if I’d been patient and waited for the stochastics to approach an oversold condition, I would’ve rode the move down to 14.95. The thing is, the stock was uptrending at that point and the trend line told me 15.01 would be the pivot point, so never would have thought to stay in the trade past that point. The smart thing would’ve been to place a limit order at the trend line target like I usually do.

At the very end of the day I placed a limit order to short HANS again @ 29.45 after it hit 29.48 and pulled back, but it only went as high as 29.38 so never got filled.

 

+ $213

I traded significantly more than usual as I continue to practice my trade management and get really comfortable with my indicators. The current market is quite jumpy and I ended up exiting some trades much too soon, and not exiting a couple soon enough. Every one of my trades was profitable at some point; I happened to take a few losses by not reading the signals to exit sooner and re-enter at a better price.

I never trade until 20-30 minutes have passed, but I shorted POT bright and early @ 68.97, because it failed to test its previous 70.00 resistance range. Covered @ 68.67 for a $60 gain not far from the bottom of that move.

Shorted POT again @ 69.26 when it stalled after failing to make a new high. However, this was a low probability trade because the bars were tightening and the stochastics were smack in the middle of the range. I could’ve taken a small profit, but allowed a full $1 stop from my entry, which was hit for a $200 loss when it broke through the HOD and set a new resistance level of 70.53.

I immediately shorted POT again @ 70.44 as it pulled back nicely from that rally and covered (too soon) @ 69.82 for a $124 gain.

Shorted POT again @ 70.22 when the tape appeared weak without a serious test of previous resistance. This was a medium probability trade, because the stochastics had not nearly completed their move to overbought. I covered @ 69.62 for a $120 gain.

Shorted POT again @ 69.92 when the stochastics reached overbought. Still only medium probability because the price had not yet re-tested the new resistance level and was making higher lows. A brief rally tested and broke through the HOD, where I doubled my position, giving me an average price of 70.22. It drifted down as I expected, and I covered (again too soon) @ 70.12 for a $40 gain.

Shorted AMGN @ 57.93 when it became overbought and stalled. Covered @ 57.82 for a $55 gain, only a small move because I was shorting off a test of the LOD, meaning chances were good it would not fall nearly that low again.

Shorted BIIB @ 46.58 after it broke through the HOD, made a fantastic run up from there, and became seriously overbought. It still had some life in it and rallied further taking out my 46.78 stop along the way for a $95 loss. I quickly shorted again @ 46.68, with a mental stop at 46.88, and it came within a penny of taking me out again, then finally drifted down after bumping its head there a few times. It pulled back to my entry price and the stochastics appeared quite oversold and pivoted, so I exited @ 46.54 for a $72 gain, and this time I really left money on the table as it dropped all the way to 46.28. The double top at the HOD should’ve been my clue that this would be one of the strongest shorts of the day.

POT decided to re-test highs and I shorted again @ 70.28 from an extremely overbought stochastic. This was a high probability trade, yet I covered way too quickly @ 69.81 for a $95 gain. A long downtrend followed, and had I simply set a stop close to b/e I would’ve easily captured another $200+.

MA established strong resistance @ 139.74 and I shorted @ 139.24. It tried to rally, weakened and pulled back to 138.85 where it quickly retraced the 3-min bar by more than 55%. This is a strong reversal signal, but instead of covering for a small profit, I left my 140.24 stop in place, figuring it would not break much above 140. That was the first mistake. The second mistake was not realizing that a break above the HOD would likely mean a further rally, so really my stop should’ve been 139.90, not 140.24. It rallied hard and I was taken out @ 140.27 for a $102 loss.

Shorted BIIB again @ 46.68 upon failure to make a new high. Covered at the trend line target of 46.58 for a $50 gain.

Shorted MA again after a double top, then a failure to make a new high. This was a high probability trade, but MA is known for crazy short squeezes, so when it failed to break down a strong support level it established @ 139.86, I covered for a $40 gain. Sadly I moved on instead of waiting for a retest and missed the absolutely best short of the day as it fell to 137.66.

Shorted BIIB again @ 46.68, because it was overbought and simply could not seem to break through that area despite many attempts. Covered @ 46.48 for a $100 gain. A lot more downside was left in this one, too.

Market went nuts at the end of the day and I shorted AMGN @ 57.98 on the run up. It rallied all the way to 58.47 before beginning its retracement. Normally I would’ve doubled my position, but I did not want to risk holding 1000 shares short a biotech stock overnight, so I waited for what I expected would be a retracement at least back to 57.88 and set a cover target there, which was filled for a $50 gain. Should’ve been a little more patient and waited for the stochastic pivot before shorting this one.

All in all a good day because I was profitable, I helped keep my broker in business, and I learned a lot and increased my trading confidence. I am gradually learning how strongly to trust my indicators especially on high probability setups so I can capture greater profits.

 

Thanks for posting regularly.
Maybe I am wrong but Is there a reason why you have not gone with a share based commission structure as that would contribute more to your bottom line.

 

Sparkwise, I plan to switch to IB at some point, but right now I am so comfortable with my trading platform and still learning the ropes, so I don't want to make a major change right now.

 

- $388

The day started off well. I shorted POT early on @ 74.27 when it had a nice run up and the stochastics pivoted from an overbought condition. Because it was a very early trade without the day’s history behind it, I covered @ 74.05 for a $45 gain as it approached oversold and was close to a 50% retracement to the LOD.

Shorted AMGN @ 58.70 when it failed to test the HOD. Covered @ 58.57 for a $65 gain and watched it drop all morning.

Shorted GSK @ 36.80, when it seemed to stall there. This was a low probability trade because I impatiently shorted it here when the stochastic had just crossed up from an oversold state. Why did I do such a dumb thing? Because I “thought” it was close enough to the HOD that a stop just above it would serve as strong resistance and it would then fall. Well, yes, I was quite right and had I waited for the stochastics to reach overbought, I would’ve shorted at an excellent price and enjoyed a strong move down. But instead my stop @ 36.99 was hit for a $93 loss and 37.00 was the top before the great move down. How long will it take me to learn to never place a stop right at the round number, but a little above it? Regardless, I was impatient in waiting for a proper setup and that was the major error.

Not to be outdone, I then shorted HANS @ 29.52 when it pulled back from a high in an overbought state. I should’ve grabbed a quick profit when it pulled back and the selling pressure dried up, or at the very least exited at b/e when the stochastics crossed up as I normally do. But I “thought” that if I placed a stop @ 30.22 above yesterday’s high, it would never be hit before my profit was taken. I left for an appointment, returned and saw it test and pull back from 30.00 several times and still didn’t exit near b/e when I could’ve. When the market rallied after the rate cut, HANS just sat there and even tanked all the way down to 29.61 where I could’ve exited when it was extremely oversold. But no, I was tired of always leaving profits on the table, and didn’t listen to the market (strong) and it suddenly decided to break out and went right through my stop for a totally unnecessary $360 loss.

I can’t believe I can still make such dumb mistakes.

Shorted HIG @ 15.85 on a stochastic cross down from an overbought condition, and covered @ 15.65 for a $96 gain.

The nice run up after the rate cut announcement created the opportunity to short AMGN @ 58.44 and cover @ 58.34 for a quick $50.

POT’s rate-cut rally stalled and I shorted it @ 75.65, placing a stop @ 76.65 as POT requires a full $1/share to work from an overbought or oversold condition. It suddenly broke out and triggered my stop for a $180 loss. I can’t say that this was a bad trade. I shorted from a high probability setup, and have decided after extensive analysis to always allow $1/share for my POT trades to work. This was simply one of those few trades that does not work even if the setup is strong and that’s why we have stops.

After the second post rate-cut rally, AMGN again invited me to short @ 58.89, and I covered @ 58.79 for a $100 gain.

So, I took $481 of losses that I needn’t have by putting on trades at two low probability points and thinking about what a stock’s price SHOULD do, instead of what it’s doing.

I will not repeat dumb trading mistakes.
I will not repeat dumb trading mistakes.
I will not repeat dumb trading mistakes.
I will not repeat dumb trading mistakes.
I will not repeat dumb trading mistakes.

 

This combined with your P&L post rings such truth.

It seems like I will get on a good trading streak and then one day take bad entry after bad entry. As if I suddenly can predict the market and no longer need my rules. No! The rules and the patience are what gave me the wins.

You have been very strong lately. Hope today gives you the focus on what you are doing right, and what you need not be doing.

Thanks for the post. I too will only trade strong setups. I only trade strong setups. I am happy to wait for strong setups.....................